Variational method for objective analysis of scalar variable and its derivative

In this study real time data have been used to compare the standard and triangle method by performing the objective analysis of mean sea level pressure. In the standard method, derivative fields are obtained from the grid point data using finite difference scheme whereas in the triangle method, a set of non-overlapping triangles are formed from the observations and the scalar and the spatial derivatives are computed directly at the centroid of each of the non-overlapping triangles. These scalars and their derivatives are then mapped to uniform grids by using the standard method. It has been found that objectively analysed scalar field obtained using standard method is superior to the scalar field derived by the triangle method, whereas the derivative fields produced by triangle method are superior to the derivative fields produced using standard method. A variational objective analysis scheme has been developed and an experiment has been carried out with depression case of June (11-15) 2004. It is found that the new scheme (variational) is able to extract the better parts of both triangle and standard methods. The results of this study will be useful in carrying out diagnostic calculations that involve derivative estimates

Mesoscale objective analysis of daily rainfall with satellite and conventional data over Indian summer monsoon region

A mesoscale objective analysis scheme for producing daily rainfall analysis on a regular latitude/longitude grid over the Indian monsoon region is described. The Barnes scheme is applied to interpolate irregularly distributed daily rainfall data on to a regular grid. The spatial resolution of the interpolated arrays is 0.25 degrees of latitude by 0.25 degrees of longitude. Daily rainfall derived from INSAT IR radiances and raingauge observations are combined to produce this analysis. Some objectively determined constraints are employed in this study: (i) weights are determined as a function of data spacing, (ii) in order to achieve convergence of the analysed values three passes through the data are considered and there is automatic elimination of wavelengths smaller than twice the average data spacing. The case of a typical westward moving monsoon depression during the 1994 monsoon season is selected to represent the characteristics of the analysed rainfall. Objective analyses of six days (16 to 21 August 1994) have been carried out using Barnes three pass scheme. The weighting function scale length parameter (c, denominator in the exponential Gaussian weight function) is varied from over a range of values and the root mean square (rms) errors are computed to select the appropriate value of c. The value of c depends on the number of correction passes being performed and on the density of the observations. The characteristics of the output field from this analysis system have been examined by comparing the analysed rainfall with the observed values. The heavy rainfall over the Western Ghat of India has been clearly brought out in this analysis

Rainfall analysis using conventional and non-conventional rainfall information on monthly scale

The aim of this paper is to describe the technique used to create the merged analysis of rainfall over the Indian and adjoining region (1.5° to 35.5° N and 63.5° to 97.5° E). The technique is tested for monthly gridded fields of rainfall for a 2–year monsoon period (2001 and 2003) on a 1° x 1° latitude–longitude grid by merging rainfall estimates from different sources, viz satellite based estimates, rain gauge analysis and numerical weather prediction model rainfall. First, in order to reduce the random error involved in the satellite rainfall estimates and the model predictions, satellite and model estimates are combined linearly based on a maximum likelihood estimate method. In this case the weight for each component is inversely proportional to the squares of the individual random errors. The weight is determined by comparing the components with the concurrent gauge analysis. As the combined analysis contains bias from the individual input data sources, the combined analysis is then blended with the analysis based on gauge observations. It is seen that the merged analysis produced here is closer to the observations than the individual sources. It is observed that the magnitude and distribution of the orographic heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats of India is very different and more realistic compared to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). When compared with the India Meteorological Department analysis, it is found that the merged analysis shows higher correlation than the satellite and model predicted rainfall. From the results it can be concluded that this study has shown promising results and the analyses can be used as a bench mark for evaluating model simulations which serves as a basis for real–time monitoring. Based on these promising results, long term datasets on high resolution grid for daily and monthly scale over Indian and adjoining region will be generated, which in turn can be used to study spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over Indian and adjoining regio

Progress of Indian summer monsoon onset and convective episodes over Indo-Pacific region observed during 2009-2014

Summer monsoon onset progress from the oceanic region of Southeast Bay of Bengal / Andaman Sea (Oceanr) up to extreme southwestern part of India (Kerala) for the years 2009 to 2014 is investigated. Synoptic weather information, INSAT/KALPANA-1 as well as cloud imageries archived from Dundee Satellite Receiving Station for May and early June for these years are used in the analysis. Upper-air reanalyzed winds from NCEP/NCAR and OLR data archived through NOAA satellites are also used. During the study period, the dates of monsoon onset as well as the time required for the advancement of onset from Oceanr to Kerala have shown a large variation. An attempt is made to investigate the causes for such variations. The results indicate that intense disturbances which formed over north Indian Ocean in 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2014 and over west-north Pacific Oceanic region in 2011 and 2012 have contributed for the same. Analysis is carried out, limiting its focus to bring out the role of these convective events in the observed variation of onset timing and its progress by taking case to case review of these events and bringing out their influence through synoptic analysis. Utility of this information in prediction of the progress of Indian summer monsoon onset is also brought out

An efficient optimum interpolation scheme for objective analysis over Indian region

In the optimum interpolation scheme, the weights for the observations are computed by solving a set of linear equations for every grid point. As the number of observations increases particularly over data-rich regions, the matrix dimension increases and the computer time required to solve these equations to determine weights increases considerably. In order to reduce the computer time for computing the weights, Tanguay and Robert suggested schemes in which the gaussian function representing the autocorrelation function has been approximated by a second-order and also by a fourth-order Taylor series expansion. This resulted in the solution of matrices of order 4 or 9 respectively to obtain weighting functions irrespective of the number of observations used in the analysis. In the present study, the analyses of mean sea level pressure and geopotential height at 700 mbar level have been carried out for five days using the above two schemes and the regular OI scheme. The analyses are found to be similar in all the three cases suggesting that a lot of computer time could be saved without sacrificing the analysis accuracy by using the modified scheme in which the second-order approximation is utilized

A composite energetics study for contrasting south west monsoon years in the recent decade

An attempt has been made to make a composite energetics study for the three contrasting types south west monsoon season (SWMS) over India, viz. marginally normal SWMS (2000 and 2001 when seasonal total rainfall was very close to 90), normal SWMS (2003, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 when seasonal total rainfall was very close to 100 of its long period average) and deficient SWMS (2002, 2004 and 2009, when seasonal total rainfall was less than 90 of its long period average). For that, decadal average for the decade 2000-2009 and anomaly, based on above decadal average, for individual year of this decade, of different energy terms, their generation and conversion among different terms have been computed daily during 1 May-30 September in the recent decade (2000-2009) over a limited region between 65°E to 95°E, 5°N to 35°N. These computations are based on daily NCEP 2.5°x 2.5°data during 1 May-30 September of the above ten years. The composite of these anomalies have then been constructed for the deficient monsoon years (2002, 2004 and 2009), marginally normal monsoon years (2000 and 2001) and for the normal monsoon years (2003, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008). In the decadal average, a steady fall in C(A Z, K Z) and C(A E, K E) till August and steady rise in C(A Z, A E) till July are noticed, indicating a suppressed mean monsoon circulation due to the influence of mid latitude baroclinic westerly systems. Analysis of the composite anomaly of different energetics parameter indicates that the deficient SWM, in the decade under study, are characterized by weaker mean monsoon circulation, as compared to normal or marginally normal SWM, in daily, monthly and seasonal scale, due to anomalous influence of mid latitude baroclinic westerly systems

Proper depiction of monsoon depression through IRS-P4 MSMR

In this paper, daily variations of satellite-derived geophysical parameters such as integrated water vapour (IWV), cloud liquid water content (CLW), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface wind speed (SSW) have been studied for a case of monsoon depression that formed over the Bay of Bengal during 19th-24th August 2000. For this purpose, IRS P4 MSMR satellite data have been utilized over the domain equator - 25°N and 40°-100°E. An integrated approach of satellite data obtained from IRS-P4, METEOSAT-5 and INSAT was made for getting a signal for the development of monsoon depression over the Indian region. Variations in deep convective activity obtained through visible, infrared and OLR data at 06 UTC was thoroughly analyzed for the complete life cycle of monsoon depression. Geophysical parameters obtained through IRS-P4 satellite data were compared with vorticity, convergence and divergence at 850 and 200 hPa levels generated through cloud motion vectors (CMVs) and water vapour wind vectors (WVWVs) obtained from METEOSAT-5 satellite. This comparison was made for finding proper consistency of geophysical parameters with dynamical aspects of major convective activity of the depression. From the results of this study it is revealed that there was strengthening of sea surface winds to the south of low-pressure area prior to the formation of depression. This indicated the possibility of increase in cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere. Hence, wind field at 850 hPa with satellite input of CMVs in objective analysis of wind field using optimum interpolation (OI) scheme was computed. Maximum cyclonic vorticity field at 850 hPa was obtained in the region of depression just one day before its formation. Similarly, with the same procedure maximum anticyclonic vorticity was observed at 200 hPa with WVWVs input. Consistent convergence and divergence at 850 and 200 hPa was noticed with respect to these vorticities. In association with these developments, we could get lowest values of OLR (120W/m 2) associated with major convective activity that was consistent with the maximum values of integrated water vapour (6-8 gm/cm 2) and cloud liquid water content (50-60 mg/cm 2) persisting particularly in the southwest sector of the monsoon depression

Investigation of features of May, 2001 tropical cyclone over the Arabian Sea through IRS-P4 and other satellite data

In this paper, utility of satellite derived atmospheric motion vectors and geophysical parameters is brought out to discern appropriate signals for improving short-range forecasts in respect of development/dissipation of tropical cyclones over the Indian region. Results of a particular case study of May, 2001 cyclone, which formed in the Arabian Sea are reported. Analysis of wind field with input of modified cloud motion vectors and water vapour wind vectors is performed utilizing Optimum Interpolation (OI) technique at 850 and 200 hPa for finding dynamical changes such as vorticity, convergence and divergence for the complete life period of this cyclone. Simultaneously, variations in geophysical parameters obtained from IRS-P4 and TRMM satellites in ascending and descending nodes are compared with dynamical variations for discerning some positive signals to improve short range forecasts over the Indian region. The enhancement of cyclonic vorticity at 200 hPa over larger area surrounding center of cyclone was observed from 26 to 28 May 2001 which gave a positive signal for dissipation of storm

The cloud aerosol interaction and precipitation enhancement experiment (CAIPEEX): Overview and preliminary results

While the demand for enhancing rainfall through cloud seeding is strong and persistent in the country, considerable uncertainty exists on the success of such an endeavour at a given location. To understand the pathways of aerosol-cloud interaction through which this might be achieved, a national experiment named Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement EXperiment (CAIPEEX) in two phases, was carried out. The rationale of CAIPEEX, the strategy for conducting the experiment, data quality and potential for path-breaking science are described in this article. Pending completion of quality control and calibration of the CAIPEEX phase-II data, here we present some initial results of CAIPEEX phase-I aimed at documenting the prevailing microphysical characteristics of aerosols and clouds and associated environmental conditions over different regions of the country and under different monsoon conditions with the help of an instrumented research aircraft. First-time simultaneous observations of aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) over the Ganges Valley during monsoon season show very high concentrations (> 1000 cm-3) of CCN at elevated layers. Observations of elevated layers with high aerosol concentration over the Gangetic valley extending up to 6 km and relatively less aerosol concentration in the boundary layer are also documented. We also present evidence of strong cloud- aerosol interaction in the moist environments with an increase in the cloud droplet effective radius. Our observations also show that pollution increases CDNC and the warm rain depth, and delays its initiation. The critical effective radius for warm rain initiation is found to be between 10 and 12 μm in the polluted clouds and it is between 12 and 14 μm in cleaner monsoon clouds

Barnes objective analysis scheme of daily rainfall over Maharashtra (India) on a mesoscale grid

An objective analysis of daily rainfall over Maharashtra (India) by distance weighting function on a mesoscale grid is described. The Bames scheme is applied to interpolate irregularly distributed daily rainfall data on to a regular grid. The spatial resolution of the interpolated arrays is 0.25 degrees of latitude by 0.25 degrees of longitude. Some objectively determined constraints are employed in this study: (i) weights are determined as a function of data spacing, (ii) in order to achieve convergence of the analyzed values, two passes through the data are considered, (iii) grid spacing is objectively determined from the data spacing. The case of a typical westward moving monsoon depression during the 1994 monsoon season is chosen for this study. Objective analyses of six days (16 to 21 August 1994) have been carried out using variable length scale two pass (V2P) and fixed length scale two pass (F2P) Barnes scheme. A length scale of 80 km for the outer pass and 40 km for the inner pass are considered. Analyses show moderate improvement of V2P? scheme over F2P scheme. The bias of the analysis based on V2P is 2 lower than that of analysis based on F2P