Decision trees in cost–benefit analysis for flood risk management plans

According to the European Directive 2007/60/CE, flood risk evaluation should include a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) on a long-term time horizon to evaluate the impact of mitigation measures. The standard CBA assumes to know in advance the events observed in the time horizon and a priori compares all mitigation measures by an economic metric. No change is supposed to be made to these measures throughout the time horizon. This modus operandi is not appropriate in the domain of flood risk management because several conditions are uncertain when the CBA is made (e.g., urban policies). This article faces these challenges by the integration of cost–benefit analysis and decision trees, to prescribe mitigation measures under uncertainty on the budget for mitigation actions because their funding can be modified after the conclusion of the CBA. The former integration is discussed in the real case of the lowland valley of the Coghinas River (Sardinia, Italy), for which the classical CBA compared five mitigation measures of infrastructural works. The integration into the decision tree also allows to evaluating mitigation measures with changes in infrastructural works and a lamination action. The outcomes advise to decreasing the maximum storage level and increase the peak lamination

Stochastic gradient methods for energy saving and a correct management in complex water supply systems

The management optimization of complex multi-source and multi-demand water resource systems under a high uncertainty level has been a subject of interest in the research literature (Labadie, 2004; Cunha & Sousa, 2010; Yuan et al., 2016). In this context, energy saving in operation of water pumping plants and reduction of water deficit for users and activities are frequently conflicting issues. Dealing with these problems, the definition of optimal activation rules for emergency activation of pumping stations are a relevant topic recently treated in Lerma et al. (2015) and Napolitano et al. (2016). In this study we want to define a trade-off between costs and risks considering the minimization of water shortage damages and the pumping operative costs, under different hydrological scenarios occurrences possibilities. Consequently, optimization results should provide the water system Authorities with a robust information about the optimal activation rules considering a large set of generated scenarios of hydrologic inputs to reservoirs. Using synthetic series it is possible to take into account the climate change impacts and balance the rules while also considering future behavior under the risk of the occurrence of shortages and the cost of early warning procedures to avoid water scarcity, mainly related to activation of emergency water transfers. Thereafter, this problem has been faced considering an efficient optimization tool based on the Stochastic Gradient method (SQG), see Ermoliev & Wets (1988) and Gaivoronski (2005). Testing the effectiveness of this proposal, an application of the modelling approach has been developed in a water shortage prone area in South-Sardinia (Italy)

Some tardigrades from Central Africa with the description of two new species: Macrobiotus ragonesei and M. priviterae (Eutardigrada Macrobiotidae)

Ten species of tardigrades are reported from Central Africa. Isohypsibius arbiter Binda 1980 is new for Africa; two species, Macrobiotus ragonesei and Macrobiotus priviterae are new to science. Macrobiotus ragonesei has two macroplacoids and microplacoid, and areolated eggs with conical processes sculptured in the basal portion and unsculptured in the terminal portion. Macrobiotus priviterae is similar to M. richtersi Murray 1911, M. peteri Pilato et al. 1989, and M. chieregoi Maucci et al. 1980 but differs from them by having eyes, and in the claw and egg characters; it is also similar to M. vanescens Pilato et al. 1991 and to M. danielae Pilato et al. 2001 but differs from them in claw and egg characters. The egg of Minibiotus africanus Binda & Pilato 1995, unknown so far, is described

Combined Point of Care Tools Are Able to Improve Treatment Adherence and Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients with Severe Hemophilia: An Observational Prospective Study

Introduction: Ultrasound (US) assessment of joints is an evolving point of care tool for the detection of early joint arthropathy (Napolitano M, Kessler CM. Hemophilia A and B. Consultative Hemostasis and Thrombosis, Kitchens, 4th edition); population pharmacokinetic (pop-PK) studies are adopted as a useful instrument to set the prophylaxis regimen for patients with hemophilia, they may improve adherence (Nagao A.et al. Thromb Res. 2019 Jan; 173:79-84) and reduce the annual bleeding rate (ABR). Adherence to continuous intravenous administrations of factor VIII or Factor IX products is challenging, thus patients may experience breakthrough bleedings while on prophylaxis. Repeated US examinations of joint status have recently been advocated to attempt to remedy sub-optimal medication adherence (Di Minno A et al., Blood Rev. 2019 Jan;33:106-116). Aim of the current prospective analysis was to evaluate the impact of combined US assessment and pop-PK study on adherence to treatment and health related quality of life in patients with severe hemophilia A(HA) and B (HB) under regular prophylaxis. Material and methods: This prospective observational study was performed at a single tertiary center from January 2017 to June 2019. Research was conducted following the Helsinki Declaration. All patients included in the study provided a written informed consent for study participation. Patients with severe HA and HB routinely underwent, as part of regular 12-months follow-up visits, the following: US joints evaluation of elbows, knees and ankles using the HEAD-US protocol, treatment adherence evaluation by VERITAS-Pro questionnaire, health –related quality of life assessment by the standardized EQ-5D,EQ-VAS and pop-PK study (WAPPS-Hemo, McMaster University) as needed (i.e.in case of changes in life style, planned treatment switch); each patient visualised US and his estimated PK profile during medial encounters. Compliance to the prescribed treatment was also determined by analysis of patient diaries with infusion logs. Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS software version 25.0 (SPSS Chicago, IL). Statistical tests were 2-sided, with a significance threshold of 0.05. Results: Twenty consecutive males with severe haemophilia were included in the current analysis, 13 with severe HA, 2 with HA with previous inhibitors and 5 HB, with a median age of 30 (range 14- 56) years and a median ABR of 5 (range:0-12). Nine patients were under primary prophylaxis, 8 under secondary prophylaxis and 3 under tertiary prophylaxis, they all self-infused at home. Four patients had one target joint and 3 patients had multiple target joints. For each enrolled subject, HEAD-US score, VERITAS-pro, EQ5D and EQ-VAS score were assessed at enrolment (T0) and at 12 (T12) and 24 (T24) months follow-up visits, respectively. Pop-PK was assessed in 11 patients: in 7 (5 HA,2 HB) it was assessed twice, before and after treatment switch to extended half-life (EHL) products, in 4 it was assessed once to modify prophylaxis treatment schedules for a more active life-style (N=2) or weight changes (N=2). Median ABR was 4 at T12 and 3.8 at T24. Reported breakthrough bleeds at T12 were 14, mainly trauma-related (N= 8) or affecting target joints (N=4), they were not reported at T24 in patients with PK-driven modified schedules (N=4) and in 4 patients under EHL treatments. Mean HEAD-US score at T0 resulted 8 (range:0-16), at T24 it was 6 (range:0-16). Mean Veritas-Pro score values were 42.7 at TO, 40.1 at T12 and 38.7 at T24. At T0, EQ-5D mean utility score was 0.82 (range: 0.68-1), at T24, the mean was 0.87 (range:0.72-1). In detail, at 24 months follow-up, there was a statistically significant (p<0.05) improvement in adherence to treatment with particular reference to the dimensions of communication and skipped doses. A tendency toward improved HEAD-US score, higher adherence and better quality of life scores, was observed in particular in patients switched to EHL products at T24, at a mean of 10 months after switching (range: 6-22 months). Conclusion: Several combined measures of haemophilia treatment monitoring, allowing visual assessment of joints status and PK profile estimates by patients have here shown to improve treatment adherence and quality of life in patients with HA and HB, this may be not only related to new available treatments but also to an increased awareness and education of patients

Cittadinanza attiva e Costituzione

Il percorso formativo si propone di fornire le conoscenze basilari del Diritto costituzionale in una prospettiva di maturazione negli studenti dei fondamenti culturali della cittadinanza attiva, che rappresenta una condizione indispensabile nel processo di sviluppo della persona e nell’ambito delle relazioni sociali, con particolare riguardo a quelle che interessano il contesto del lavoro. Il programma si articolerà in un primo incontro con il coordinatore scientifico Prof. Alberto Lucarelli di impostazione seminariale, in occasione del quale verranno illustrati i principi fondativi del modello di Stato democratico rappresentativo che sono sanciti nella nostra Carta costituzionale. A seguire, verranno realizzati dei moduli laboratoriali su specifici temi che verranno trattati sulla base di un più diretto coinvolgimento degli studenti, attraverso ad esempio simulazioni, realizzazione di mappe concettuali, etc

LEMON:LEns MOdelling with Neural networks - I. Automated modelling of strong gravitational lenses with Bayesian Neural Networks

The unprecedented number of gravitational lenses expected from new-generation facilities such as the ESA Euclid telescope and the Vera Rubin Observatory makes it crucial to rethink our classical approach to lens-modelling. In this paper, we present LEMON (Lens Modelling with Neural networks): a new machine-learning algorithm able to analyse hundreds of thousands of gravitational lenses in a reasonable amount of time. The algorithm is based on a Bayesian Neural Network: a new generation of neural networks able to associate a reliable confidence interval to each predicted parameter. We train the algorithm to predict the three main parameters of the singular isothermal ellipsoid model (the Einstein radius and the two components of the ellipticity) by employing two simulated data sets built to resemble the imaging capabilities of the Hubble Space Telescope and the forthcoming Euclid satellite. In this work, we assess the accuracy of the algorithm and the reliability of the estimated uncertainties by applying the network to several simulated data sets of 104 images each. We obtain accuracies comparable to previous studies present in the current literature and an average modelling time of just ∼0.5 s per lens. Finally, we apply the LEMON algorithm to a pilot data set of real lenses observed with HST during the SLACS program, obtaining unbiased estimates of their SIE parameters. The code is publicly available on GitHub (https://github.com/fab-gentile/LEMON).</p