Uncertainty and sensitivity in optode-based shelf-sea net community production estimates

Coastal seas represent one of the most valuable and vulnerable habitats on Earth. Understanding biological productivity in these dynamic regions is vital to understanding how they may influence and be affected by climate change. A key metric to this end is net community production (NCP), the net effect of autotrophy and heterotrophy; however accurate estimation of NCP has proved to be a difficult task. Presented here is a thorough exploration and sensitivity analysis of an oxygen mass-balance-based NCP estimation technique applied to the Warp Anchorage monitoring station, which is a permanently well-mixed shallow area within the River Thames plume. We have developed an open-source software package for calculating NCP estimates and air–sea gas flux. Our study site is identified as a region of net heterotrophy with strong seasonal variability. The annual cumulative net community oxygen production is calculated as (−5 ± 2.5) mol m−2 a−1. Short-term daily variability in oxygen is demonstrated to make accurate individual daily estimates challenging. The effects of bubble-induced supersaturation is shown to have a large influence on cumulative annual estimates and is the source of much uncertainty

Looking beyond stratification: a model-based analysis of the biological drivers of oxygen deficiency in the North Sea

Low oxygen conditions, often referred to as oxy- gen deficiency, occur regularly in the North Sea, a temperate European shelf sea. Stratification represents a major process regulating the seasonal dynamics of bottom oxygen, yet, low- est oxygen conditions in the North Sea do not occur in the regions of strongest stratification. This suggests that stratifi- cation is an important prerequisite for oxygen deficiency, but that the complex interaction between hydrodynamics and the biological processes drives its evolution. In this study we use the ecosystem model HAMSOM- ECOHAM to provide a general characterisation of the dif- ferent zones of the North Sea with respect to oxygen, and to quantify the impact of the different physical and biological factors driving the oxygen dynamics inside the entire sub- thermocline volume and directly above the bottom. With respect to oxygen dynamics, the North Sea can be subdivided into three different zones: (1) a highly produc- tive, non-stratified coastal zone, (2) a productive, season- ally stratified zone with a small sub-thermocline volume, and (3) a productive, seasonally stratified zone with a large sub- thermocline volume. Type 2 reveals the highest susceptibility to oxygen deficiency due to sufficiently long stratification pe- riods (textgreater60 days) accompanied by high surface productivity resulting in high biological consumption, and a small sub- thermocline volume implying both a small initial oxygen in- ventory and a strong influence of the biological consumption on the oxygen concentration. Year-to-year variations in the oxygen conditions are caused by variations in primary production, while spatial dif- ferences can be attributed to differences in stratification and water depth. The large sub-thermocline volume dominates the oxygen dynamics in the northern central and northern North Sea and makes this region insusceptible to oxygen de- ficiency. In the southern North Sea the strong tidal mixing inhibits the development of seasonal stratification which pro- tects this area from the evolution of low oxygen conditions. In contrast, the southern central North Sea is highly suscep- tible to low oxygen conditions (type 2). We furthermore show that benthic diagenetic processes represent the main oxygen consumers in the bottom layer, consistently accounting for more than 50% of the overall consumption. Thus, primary production followed by rem- ineralisation of organic matter under stratified conditions constitutes the main driver for the evolution of oxygen defi- ciency in the southern central North Sea. By providing these valuable insights, we show that ecosystem models can be a useful tool for the interpretation of observations and the es- timation of the impact of anthropogenic drivers on the North Sea oxygen conditions

Can Forel–Ule Index Act as a Proxy of Water Quality in Temperate Waters? Application of Plume Mapping in Liverpool Bay, UK

The use of ocean colour classification algorithms, linked to water quality gradients, can be a useful tool for mapping river plumes in both tropical and temperate systems. This approach has been applied in operational water quality programs in the Great Barrier Reef to map river plumes and assess trends in marine water composition and ecosystem health during flood periods. In this study, we used the Forel–Ule colour classification algorithm for Sentinel-3 OLCI imagery in an automated process to map monthly, annual and long-term plume movement in the temperate coastal system of Liverpool Bay (UK). We compared monthly river plume extent to the river flow and in situ water quality data between 2017–2020. The results showed a strong positive correlation (Spearman’s rho = 0.68) between the river plume extent and the river flow and a strong link between the FUI defined waterbodies and nutrients, SPM, turbidity and salinity, hence the potential of the Forel–Ule index to act as a proxy for water quality in the temperate Liverpool Bay water. The paper discusses how the Forel–Ule index could be used in operational water quality programs to better understand river plumes and the land-based inputs to the coastal zones in UK waters, drawing parallels with methods that have been developed in the GBR and Citclops project. Overall, this paper provides the first insight into the systematic long-term river plume mapping in UK coastal waters using a fast, cost-effective, and reproducible workflow. The study created a novel water assessment typology based on the common physical, chemical and biological ocean colour properties captured in the Forel–Ule index, which could replace the more traditional eutrophication assessment regions centred around strict geographic and political boundaries. Additionally, the Forel–Ule assessment typology is particularly important since it identifies areas of the greatest impact from the land-based loads into the marine environment, and thus potential risks to vulnerable ecosystems

Inequalities in the distribution of COVID-19-related financial difficulties for Australian families with young children

BACKGROUND: We examine (1) the frequency of financial difficulties in Australian families with young children (0-8 years) in the early and later phases of the pandemic; (2) the extent to which parents' pre-pandemic socio-economic disadvantage (SED) predicted financial difficulties; and (3) whether grandparent intergenerational SED further amplified this risk. METHOD: Data: Australian Temperament Project (ATP; established 1983, N = 2443) and ATP Generation 3 study (ATPG3; established 2012; N = 702), of which 74% (N = 553) completed a COVID-specific module in the early (May-September 2020) and/or later (October-December 2021) phases of the pandemic. OUTCOMES: Parent-reported loss of employment/reduced income, difficulty paying for essentials, and financial strain. EXPOSURES: Pre-pandemic parent and grandparent education and occupation. ANALYSIS: Logistic regressions, estimated via generalized estimating equations, were used to examine associations between the pre-pandemic SED of parents and grandparents and their interaction with financial difficulties, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: At both pandemic time points, a third of parents reported adverse financial impacts (early: 34%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 30-38; later: 32%, 95% CI = 28-36). Each standard deviation increase in the parents' pre-pandemic SED was associated with a 36% increase in the odds of reporting multiple financial difficulties (odds ratio [OR] = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.04-1.78). There was little evidence of an interaction between the SED of parents and grandparents. CONCLUSIONS: Financial impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic were common and, irrespective of grandparent SED, disproportionately borne by parents with higher pre-pandemic SED. Given the well-established relationship between disadvantage and child health and development, sustained and well-targeted government supports will be critical to minimizing adverse impacts in years to come

Simultaneous assessment of oxygen- and nitrate-based net community production in a temperate shelf sea from a single ocean glider

The continental shelf seas are important at a global scale for ecosystem services. These highly dynamic regions are under a wide range of stresses, and as such future management requires appropriate monitoring measures. A key metric to understanding and predicting future change are the rates of biological production. We present here the use of an autonomous underwater glider with an oxygen (O2) and a wet-chemical microfluidic total oxidised nitrogen (NOx-NO3-+NO2-) sensor during a spring bloom as part of a 2019 pilot autonomous shelf sea monitoring study. We find exceptionally high rates of net community production using both O2 and NOx-water column inventory changes, corrected for air-sea gas exchange in case of O2. We compare these rates with 2007 and 2008 mooring observations finding similar rates of NOx-consumption. With these complementary methods we determine the O2:N amount ratio of the newly produced organic matter (7.8g±0.4) and the overall O2:N ratio for the total water column (5.7g±0.4). The former is close to the canonical Redfield O2:N ratio of 8.6g±1.0, whereas the latter may be explained by a combination of new organic matter production and preferential remineralisation of more reduced organic matter at a higher O2:N ratio below the euphotic zone

Carbon dioxide and ocean acidification observations in UK waters. Synthesis report with a focus on 2010–2015

Key messages: 1.1 The process of ocean acidification is now relatively well-documented at the global scale as a long-term trend in the open ocean. However, short-term and spatial variability can be high. 1.2 New datasets made available since Charting Progress 2 make it possible to greatly improve the characterisation of CO2 and ocean acidification in UK waters. 3.1 Recent UK cruise data contribute to large gaps in national and global datasets. 3.2 The new UK measurements confirm that pH is highly variable, therefore it is important to measure consistently to determine any long term trends. 3.3 Over the past 30 years, North Sea pH has decreased at 0.0035±0.0014 pH units per year. 3.4 Upper ocean pH values are highest in spring, lowest in autumn. These changes reflect the seasonal cycles in photosynthesis, respiration (decomposition) and water mixing. 3.5 Carbonate saturation states are minimal in the winter, and lower in 7 more northerly, colder waters. This temperature-dependence could have implications for future warming of the seas. 3.6 Over the annual cycle, North-west European seas are net sinks of CO2. However, during late summer to autumn months, some coastal waters may be significant sources. 3.7 In seasonally-stratified waters, sea-floor organisms naturally experience lower pH and saturation states; they may therefore be more vulnerable to threshold changes. 3.8 Large pH changes (0.5 - 1.0 units) can occur in the top 1 cm of sediment; however, such effects are not well-documented. 3.9 A coupled forecast model estimates the decrease in pH trend within the North Sea to be -0.0036±0.00034 pH units per year, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). 3.10 Seasonal estimates from the forecast model demonstrate areas of the North Sea that are particularly vulnerable to aragonite undersaturation

A probabilistic approach to mapping the contribution of individual riverine discharges into Liverpool Bay using distance accumulation cost methods on satellite derived ocean-colour data

Assessments of the water quality in coastal zones often rely on indirect indicators from contributing river inputs and the neighbouring ocean. Using a novel combination of distance accumulation cost methods and an ocean-colour product derived from SENTINEL-3 data, we developed a probabilistic method for the assessment of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in Liverpool Bay (UK) for the period from 2017 to 2020. Using our approach, we showed the annual and monthly likelihood of DIN exposure from its 12 major contributory rivers. Furthermore, we generated monthly risk maps showing the probability of DIN exposure from all rivers, which revealed a seasonal variation of extent and location around the bay. The highest likelihood of high DIN exposure throughout the year was in the estuarine regions of the Dee, Mersey, and Ribble, along with near-shore areas along the north Wales coast and around the mouth of the rivers Mersey and Ribble. There were seasonal changes in the risk of DIN exposure, and this risk remained high all year for the Mersey and Dee estuary regions. In contrast, for the mouth and near the coastal areas of the Ribble, the DIN exposure decreased in spring, remained low during the summer and early autumn, before displaying an increase during winter. Our approach offers the ability to assess the water quality within coastal zones without the need of complex hydrodynamic models, whilst still having the potential to apportion nutrient exposure to specific riverine inputs. This information can help to prioritise how direct mitigation strategies can be applied to specific river catchments, focusing the limited resources for coastal zone and river basin management

Carbon on the Northwest European Shelf: Contemporary Budget and Future Influences

A carbon budget for the northwest European continental shelf seas (NWES) was synthesized using available estimates for coastal, pelagic and benthic carbon stocks and flows. Key uncertainties were identified and the effect of future impacts on the carbon budget were assessed. The water of the shelf seas contains between 210 and 230 Tmol of carbon and absorbs between 1.3 and 3.3 Tmol from the atmosphere annually. Off-shelf transport and burial in the sediments account for 60–100 and 0–40% of carbon outputs from the NWES, respectively. Both of these fluxes remain poorly constrained by observations and resolving their magnitudes and relative importance is a key research priority. Pelagic and benthic carbon stocks are dominated by inorganic carbon. Shelf sediments contain the largest stock of carbon, with between 520 and 1600 Tmol stored in the top 0.1 m of the sea bed. Coastal habitats such as salt marshes and mud flats contain large amounts of carbon per unit area but their total carbon stocks are small compared to pelagic and benthic stocks due to their smaller spatial extent. The large pelagic stock of carbon will continue to increase due to the rising concentration of atmospheric CO2, with associated pH decrease. Pelagic carbon stocks and flows are also likely to be significantly affected by increasing acidity and temperature, and circulation changes but the net impact is uncertain. Benthic carbon stocks will be affected by increasing temperature and acidity, and decreasing oxygen concentrations, although the net impact of these interrelated changes on carbon stocks is uncertain and a major knowledge gap. The impact of bottom trawling on benthic carbon stocks is unique amongst the impacts we consider in that it is widespread and also directly manageable, although its net effect on the carbon budget is uncertain. Coastal habitats are vulnerable to sea level rise and are strongly impacted by management decisions. Local, national and regional actions have the potential to protect or enhance carbon storage, but ultimately global governance, via controls on emissions, has the greatest potential to influence the long-term fate of carbon stocks in the northwestern European continental shelf

Vertical mixing alleviates autumnal oxygen deficiency in the central North Sea

There is an immediate need to better understand and monitor shelf sea dissolved oxygen (O2) concentrations. Here we use high-resolution glider observations of turbulence and O2 concentrations to directly estimate the vertical O2 flux into the bottom mixed layer (BML) immediately before the autumn breakdown of stratification in a seasonally stratified shelf sea. We present a novel method to resolve the oxycline across sharp gradients due to slow optode response time and optode positioning in a flow “shadow zone” on Slocum gliders. The vertical O2 flux to the low-O2 BML was found to be between 2.5 to 6.4 mmol m−2 d−1. Episodic intense mixing events were responsible for the majority (up to 90 %) of this oxygen supply despite making up 40 % of the observations. Without these intense mixing events, BML O2 concentrations would approach ecologically concerning levels by the end of the stratified period. Understanding the driving forces behind episodic mixing and how these may change under future climate scenarios and renewable energy infrastructure is key for monitoring shelf sea health

A Review of the Tools Used for Marine Monitoring in the UK: Combining Historic and Contemporary Methods with Modeling and Socioeconomics to Fulfill Legislative Needs and Scientific Ambitions

Marine environmental monitoring is undertaken to provide evidence that environmental management targets are being met. Moreover, monitoring also provides context to marine science and over the last century has allowed development of a critical scientific understanding of the marine environment and the impacts that humans are having on it. The seas around the UK are currently monitored by targeted, impact-driven, programmes (e.g., fishery or pollution based monitoring) often using traditional techniques, many of which have not changed significantly since the early 1900s. The advent of a new wave of automated technology, in combination with changing political and economic circumstances, means that there is currently a strong drive to move toward a more refined, efficient, and effective way of monitoring. We describe the policy and scientific rationale for monitoring our seas, alongside a comprehensive description of the types of equipment and methodology currently used and the technologies that are likely to be used in the future. We contextualize the way new technologies and methodologies may impact monitoring and discuss how whole ecosystems models can give an integrated, comprehensive approach to impact assessment. Furthermore, we discuss how an understanding of the value of each data point is crucial to assess the true costs and benefits to society of a marine monitoring programme