The Sensitivity and Specificity of Markers for Event Times

The statistical literature on assessing the accuracy of risk factors or disease markers as diagnostic tests deals almost exclusively with settings where the test, Y, is measured concurrently with disease status D. In practice, however, disease status may vary over time and there is often a time lag between when the marker is measured and the occurrence of disease. One example concerns the Framingham Risk Score as a marker for the future risk of cardiovascular events, events that occur after the score is ascertained. To evaluate such a marker, one needs to take the time lag into account since the accuracy may be higher when the marker is measured closer to the time of disease occurrence. We therefore consider inference for sensitivity and specificity functions that are defined as functions of time. Semi-parametric regression models are proposed. Data from a cohort study are used to estimate model parameters. One issue that arises in practice is that event times may be censored. In this research, we extend the work by Leisenring, Pepe and Longton (1997) that dealt only with binary tests, parametric models to continuous tests, semi-parametric models and censored data. Asymptotic distribution theory for parameter estimates is produced and procedures for making statistical inference are evaluated with simulation studies. We illustrate our methods with a dataset from the Cardiovascular Health Study, relating the Framingham risk score measured at enrollment to subsequent risk of cardiovascular events

Physical Activity, Physical Fitness, and Leukocyte Telomere Length: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

INTRODUCTION: The influence of physical activity (PA) and physical fitness (PF) at older ages on changes in telomere length (TL)--repetitive DNA sequences that may mark biologic aging--is not well-established. Few prior studies (mainly cross-sectional) have been conducted in older adults, and few studies have evaluated PF. METHODS: We investigated cross-sectional and prospective associations of PA and PF with leukocyte TL among 582 older adults (mean ± SD age, 73 ± 5 yr at baseline) in the Cardiovascular Health Study, with serial TL measures and PA and PF assessed multiple times. Cross-sectional associations were assessed using multivariable repeated-measures regression, in which cumulatively averaged PA and PF measures were related to TL. Longitudinal analyses assessed cumulatively averaged PA and PF against later changes in TL, and changes in cumulatively averaged PA and PF against changes in TL. RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, greater walking distance and chair test performance, but not other PA and PF measures, were each associated with longer TL (P trend = 0.007 and 0.04, respectively). In longitudinal analyses, no significant associations of baseline PA and PF with change in TL were observed. In contrast, changes in leisure-time activity and chair test performance were each inversely associated with changes in TL. CONCLUSIONS: Cross-sectional analyses suggest that greater PA and PF are associated with longer TL. Prospective analyses show that changes in PA and PF are associated with differences in changes in TL. Even later in life, changes in certain PA and PF measures are associated with changes in TL, suggesting that leisure-time activity and fitness could reduce leukocyte telomere attrition among older adults.This research was supported by contracts HHSN268201200036C, HHSN268200800007C, N01 HC55222, N01HC85079, N01HC85080, N01HC85081, N01HC85082, N01HC85083, N01HC85086, and grant U01HL080295 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), with additional contribution from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS). Additional support was provided by R01AG023629 the National Institute on Aging (NIA). A full list of principal CHS investigators and institutions can be found at CHS-NHLBI.org. Luisa Soares-Miranda is supported by the Portuguese Foundation of Science and Technology (FCT), SFRH/BPD/76947/2011, PTDC/DES/099018/2008 - FCT/FCOMP-01- 0124-FEDER-009573, and The Research Centre in Physical Activity Health and Leisure is supported by UID/DTP/00617/2013. Dr Imamura received support from the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit Core Support (MC_UU_12015/5).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wolters Kluwer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1249/MSS.000000000000072

Associations of Dietary Long-Chain n-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids and Fish With Biomarkers of Inflammation and Endothelial Activation (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA])

Cardioprotective effects of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFA) and fish consumption have been observed. However, data on the specific associations of these dietary factors with inflammation and endothelial activation are sparse. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 5,677 men and women from the MESA cohort including African Americans, Caucasians, Chinese and Hispanics, aged 45-84 years, and free of clinical cardiovascular disease. Dietary information was collected by self-administered food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to examine relations between intake of LC n-3 PUFAs, non-fried fish and fried fish and biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation. LC n-3 PUFA intakes were inversely associated with plasma concentrations of interleukin-6 (IL-6, P=0.01) and matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3, P=0.03) independent of age, body mass index, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and dietary variables. Non-fried fish consumption was found inversely related to C-reactive protein (CRP, P=0.045) and IL-6 (P<0.01); and fried fish was observed being inversely related to soluble intercellular adhesion molecules-1 (sICAM-1) (P<0.01) but not associated with other biomarkers after adjustment for potential confounders. In conclusion, this study suggests that dietary intakes of LC n-3 PUFAs and fish are inversely associated with concentrations of some biomarkers reflecting lower levels of inflammation and endothelial activation. These results may partially explain the cardioprotective effects of fish consumption

Intakes of long-chain n–3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and fish in relation to measurements of subclinical atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND: Data on the relations of different types of fish meals and long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) to measures of atherosclerosis are sparse. OBJECTIVE: We examined intakes of long-chain n-3 PUFAs and fish in relation to clinical measures of subclinical atherosclerosis. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a multiethnic group of 5,488 adults aged 45-84 y and free of clinical cardiovascular disease. Diet was assessed by using self-administered food-frequency questionnaires. Subclinical atherosclerosis was determined by measurements of common carotid intima-media thickness (cCIMT, >80th percentile), internal CIMT (iCIMT, >80th percentile), coronary artery calcium score (CAC score, >0), or ankle-brachial index (ABI, <0.90). RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounders, intakes of long-chain n-3 PUFAs and nonfried (broiled, steamed, baked, or raw) fish were inversely related to subclinical atherosclerosis determined by cCIMT but not by iCIMT, CAC score, or ABI. The multivariate odds ratio comparing the highest to the lowest quartile of dietary exposures in relation to subclinical atherosclerosis determined by cCIMT was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.86; P for trend < 0.01) for n-3 PUFA intake; 0.80 (95% CI: 0.64, 1.01; P = 0.054) for nonfried fish consumption; and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.11; P = 0.38) for fried fish consumption. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the dietary intake of long-chain n-3 PUFAs or nonfried fish is associated with a lower prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis classified by cCIMT, although significant changes in iCIMT, CAC score, and ABI were not observed. Our findings also suggest that the association of fish and atherosclerosis may vary depending on the type of fish meal consumed and the measures of atherosclerosis

Plasma Levels of Soluble Interleukin-2 Receptor αSignificance: Associations With Clinical Cardiovascular Events and Genome-Wide Association Scan

Interleukin-2 receptor subunit alpha (IL-2Rα) regulates lymphocyte activation, which plays an important role in atherosclerosis. Associations between soluble IL-2Rα and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have not been widely studied and little is known about the genetic determinants of sIL-2Rα levels

Differential White Blood Cell Count and Type 2 Diabetes: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cross-Sectional and Prospective Studies

Objective: Biological evidence suggests that inflammation might induce type 2 diabetes (T2D), and epidemiological studies have shown an association between higher white blood cell count (WBC) and T2D. However, the association has not been systematically investigated.Research Design and Methods: Studies were identified through computer-based and manual searches. Previously unreported studies were sought through correspondence. 20 studies were identified (8,647 T2D cases and 85,040 non-cases). Estimates of the association of WBC with T2D were combined using random effects meta-analysis; sources of heterogeneity as well as presence of publication bias were explored.Results: The combined relative risk (RR) comparing the top to bottom tertile of the WBC count was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.45; 1.79, p = 1.5*10(-18)). Substantial heterogeneity was present (I-2 = 83%). For granulocytes the RR was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.17; 1.64, p = 1.5*10(-4)), for lymphocytes 1.26 (95% CI: 1.02; 1.56, p = 0.029), and for monocytes 0.93 (95% CI: 0.68; 1.28, p = 0.67) comparing top to bottom tertile. In cross-sectional studies, RR was 1.74 (95% CI: 1.49; 2.02, p = 7.7*10(-13)), while in cohort studies it was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.22; 1.79, p = 7.7*10(-5)). We assessed the impact of confounding in EPIC-Norfolk study and found that the age and sex adjusted HR of 2.19 (95% CI: 1.74; 2.75) was attenuated to 1.82 (95% CI: 1.45; 2.29) after further accounting for smoking, T2D family history, physical activity, education, BMI and waist circumference.Conclusions: A raised WBC is associated with higher risk of T2D. The presence of publication bias and failure to control for all potential confounders in all studies means the observed association is likely an overestimate