Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.Peer reviewe

Poor iron status is more prevalent in Hispanic than in non-Hispanic white older adults in Massachusetts

Iron status and dietary correlates of iron status have not been well described in Hispanic older adults of Caribbean origin. The aim of this study was to evaluate iron status and describe dietary components and correlates of iron status in Hispanic older adults and in a neighborhood-based comparison group of non-Hispanic white older adults. Six hundred four Hispanic and non-Hispanic white adults (59-91 y of age) from the Massachusetts Hispanic Elders Study were included in the analysis. We examined physiological markers of iron status as well as dietary factors in relation to iron status. Dietary intake was assessed by FFQ. Our results revealed that Hispanics had significantly lower geometric mean serum ferritin (74.1 μg/L vs. 100 μg/L; P < 0.001), lower hemoglobin concentrations (137 ± 13 vs. 140 ± 12 g/L; P < 0.01), higher prevalence of anemia (11.5 vs. 7.3%; P < 0.05), and suboptimal hemoglobin concentrations (<125 g/L) for this age group (21.4 vs. 13.3%; P < 0.05). Iron deficiency anemia was higher (7.2% vs. 2.3%; P < 0.05) in Hispanic women. Hispanics had lower mean intakes of total iron, vitamin C, supplemental vitamin C, and total calcium than did non-Hispanic whites. After adjusting for age, sex, BMI, alcohol use, smoking, total energy intake, inflammation, diabetes, and liver disease, intake of heme iron from red meat was positively associated and dietary calcium was negatively associated with serum ferritin. This population of Hispanic older adults was significantly more likely than their non-Hispanic white neighbors to suffer from anemia and poor iron status, particularly among women. Cultural variation in dietary patterns may influence iron availability and body iron stores and contribute to an increased risk for iron deficiency anemia among some Hispanic older adults

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 1. Vegetation changes north of 55°N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present

A unified scheme to assign pollen samples to vegetation types was used to reconstruct vegetation patterns north of 55°N at the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.). The pollen data set assembled for this purpose represents a comprehensive compilation based on the work of many projects and research groups. Five tundra types (cushion forb tundra, graminoid and forb tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, erect dwarf-shrub tundra, and low- and high-shrub tundra) were distinguished and mapped on the basis of modern pollen surface samples. The tundra-forest boundary and the distributions of boreal and temperate forest types today were realistically reconstructed. During the mid-Holocene the tundra-forest boundary was north of its present position in some regions, but the pattern of this shift was strongly asymmetrical around the pole, with the largest northward shift in central Siberia (?200 km), little change in Beringia, and a southward shift in Keewatin and Labrador (?200 km). Low- and high-shrub tundra extended farther north than today. At the LGM, forests were absent from high latitudes. Graminoid and forb tundra abutted on temperate steppe in northwestern Eurasia while prostrate dwarf-shrub, erect dwarf-shrub, and graminoid and forb tundra formed a mosaic in Beringia. Graminoid and forb tundra is restricted today and does not form a large continuous biome, but the pollen data show that it was far more extensive at the LGM, while low- and high-shrub tundra were greatly reduced, illustrating the potential for climate change to dramatically alter the relative areas occupied by different vegetation types