Plausible inference and the interpretation of quantitative data

The analysis of quantitative data is central to scientific investigation. Probability theory, which is founded on two rules, the sum and product rules, provides the unique, logically consistent method for drawing valid inferences from quantitative data. This primer on the use of probability theory is meant to fulfill a pedagogical purpose. The discussion begins at the foundation of scientific inference by showing how the sum and product rules of probability theory follow from some very basic considerations of logical consistency. The authors then develop general methods of probability theory that are essential to the analysis and interpretation of data. They discuss how to assign probability distributions using the principle of maximum entropy, how to estimate parameters from data, how to handle nuisance parameters whose values are of little interest, and how to determine which of a set of models is most justified by a data set. All these methods are used together in most realistic data analyses. Examples are given throughout to illustrate the basic points

Production of minor actinides in the commercial fuel cycle

The minor actinides are an inevitable by-product of the production of electricity with thermal reactors. This paper will review the mechanisms of production of the principal minor actinides ({sup 237}Np, {sup 241}Am, and {sup 243}Am) and their expected concentrations in spent fuel from commercial power reactors as well as in Pu produced from reprocessing these types of spent fuels. All the results shown are derived from calculations done using the ORIGEN2 reactor code

Use of Stable Noble Gases as a Predictor of Reactor Fuel Type and Exposure

Ensuring spent reactor fuel is not produced to provide weapons-grade plutonium is becoming a major concern as many countries resort to nuclear power as a solution to their energy problems. Proposed solutions range from the development of proliferation resistant fuel to continuous monitoring of the fuel. This paper discusses the use of the stable isotopes of the fissiogenic noble gases, xenon and krypton, for determining the burnup characteristics, fuel type, and the reactor type of the fuel from which the sample was obtained. The gases would be collected on-stack as the fuel is reprocessed, and thus confirm that the fuel is as declared

Large-scale multiple sequence alignment and phylogeny estimation

With the advent of next generation sequencing technologies, alignment and phylogeny estimation of datasets with thousands of sequences is being attempted. To address these challenges, new algorithmic approaches have been developed that have been able to provide substantial improvements over standard methods. This paper focuses on new approaches for ultra-large tree estimation, including methods for co-estimation of alignments and trees, estimating trees without needing a full sequence alignment, and phylogenetic placement. While the main focus is on methods with empirical performance advantages, we also discuss the theoretical guarantees of methods under Markov models of evolution. Finally, we include a discussion of the future of large-scale phylogenetic analysis