Deeper Regional Integration and Global Value Chains

Recently, international trade has become regional rather than global. This study aims to test if deep regional integration contributes to the organization of global value chains centered around the regional clusters. We use data on not only trade in value added but also global value chain participation indexes that reflect the global value chains better than domestic value added in exported goods and services. Estimation results reveal that a deep regional trade agreement (RTA) has heterogeneous effects on global value chains depending on the regional clusters. In particular, Asia imports more intermediate goods than Europe and America, while RTA member countries tend to import more intermediate goods from Europe than Asia and America

Employment and value added induced by final demands

노트 : * This report is a summary and translation of article in <KIEP 오늘의 세계경제>12-22

General Equilibrium Analysis of DDA Trade Liberalization: Assessment of Alternative Scenarios

This paper aims to implement the simulation studies using a CGE approach to identify ideas on how to finalize the DDA negotiations by making some mutual concessions and deal with contentious issues yet to be agreed. The simulation results of this paper, which lay between those of the previous literature, indicate that the DDA negotiations will boost the global economy to a substantial degree. It reveals that the world GDP effects will amount to US$49.9~186.2 billion (0.12~0.45$ 49.7~157.7 billion. The GDP growth effects are mainly due to effects of trade expansion, which amount to US$ 265.3~382.0 billion. The simulation result also indicates that developed countries need to consider positively the arguments of developing countries on the controversial issues related to agriculture. In return for the concessions by the developed countries, the developing countries will likely accept further discussions related to the sectoral proposals and services liberalization.DDA negotiations, CGE, Simulation

Did Anti-dumping Duties Really Restrict Import?: Empirical Evidence from the US, the EU, China, and India

This paper studied the effects of anti-dumping measures on the imports to investigate whether the trade restriction effect of an anti-dumping duty is dominant. Our results indicate that a 1% increase in the anti-dumping duties decreases the import of the targeted product by about 0.43~0.51%. The actual statistics, however, show that the total import of the targeted products increased by about 30 percent while an anti-dumping duty was in force. That indicates that an anti-dumping duty is just a temporary import relief. This paper also investigated whether an anti-dumping duty is terminated in the case that the injury would not be likely to continue or recur if the duty were removed. The hazards model estimates show that increase in market share, MFN tariff rate, and dumping margin decrease the hazard of termination of an anti-dumping duty, but the increase in value added increases the hazard of termination. Generally speaking, this result indicates that the WTO member countries have regulated the overuse of an anti-dumping measure. The findings of this paper show that there is a country- and industry-wise heterogeneous characteristic in the effect as well as termination of an anti-dumping duty

Determinants of Staging Categories for Tariff Elimination in Chinese, Japanese, and Korean Negotiations of Free Trade Agreements-super-∗

China, Japan, and Korea have signed free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with many countries since the late 1990s. This study analyzes the determinants of staging categories for tariff elimination in FTA negotiations of these East Asian countries by using an ordered probit model. The two key findings are (a) each country had set up a product scope for tariff elimination and exclusion list efficiently to maximize its national economic interests, and (b) the staging categories were determined by product-level competitiveness, industrial characteristics, and political factors. © 2011 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.