Equilibrium with Consumer Adjustment to Choice

I present a spatial model of differentiated product markets in which consumers with heterogeneous tastes rationally improve their attitude towards the product they choose. Adjustment raises prices if adjustment facility is greater for consumers who initially prefer a product more (e.g., preferences and corresponding adjustments exhibit the halo effect). It lowers prices if instead easier adjustment for consumers with weaker initial preferences causes attitudinal regression to the mean. The theory explains higher prices in markets to the poor and less educated and so motivates re-examination of previously proposed solutions to the poor performance of those markets

A Lemons “Mirage”: Erroneous Perceptions Of Asymmetric Information In The Market For Arizona Ranchettes

Owners of modest-sized,recreation-oriented ranch properties, known as “ranchettes,” appear to judge a key characteristic of the quality of their properties, the extent of vegetative “greenness,” based on their own observation,despite the greater reliability of publicly available climate data. The discrepancy between personal observation and public data is perceived erroneously by owners as reflecting an information asymmetry that favors the former. The consequence of this misperception is adverse selection: transplant owners, who are not familiar with long-term local weather patterns from direct observation, delay the sale of properties that are greener during their term of ownership. Econometric evidence is presented from the analysis of 694 ranchette sales in Yavapai County, Arizona during 1991-2000. The results demonstrate that the efficiency of the market mechanism is affected not just by the actual distribution of information on quality, but by its perceived distribution

Negative Externalities, Network Effects, and Compatibility

Positive network effects arise where incremental product use increases the utility of users of compatible products (user-positive effects), but also in situations where product use imposes negative externalities that selectively affect the adopters of incompatible alternatives (nonuser-negative effects). This paper compares the social optimality of firms’ incentives for compatibility under these two regimes. Using a “location” model of differentiated products, I find that, under both regimes, incentives for unilateral action to increase compatibility tend to be suboptimal when firms’ networks are close in size, but they may be excessive for small firms when networks differ greatly in size. The result is consistent with prior analysis of the user-positive context (e.g., Katz & Shapiro, 1985), but challenges the intuition that activities involving negative externalities are always oversupplied in an unregulated market. Public policy implications are discussed

Assisted Self-Persuasion: Advertising with Consumer Adjustment to Choice

I develop a new theory of persuasive advertising in which consumers rationally adjust to (i.e., improve their attitude toward) the products they choose and advertising facilitates adjustment. Advertising\u27s price effects depend on whether marginal or inframarginal consumers are most heavily targeted, consistent with the literature. But they also depend on advertising\u27s role as an overall adjustment intensifier, whence variation in the cost of adjustment with the strength of the consumers initial product preference determines the equilibrium price level. Whether too much or too little advertising is provided in equilibrium depends on the sign and size of advertising\u27s price effect, the relative density of marginal consumers, and the relative extent to which advertising\u27s adjustment cost reductions benefit marginal consumers

The use of indicators for unobservable product qualities: inferences based on consumer sorting

Using the dietary supplement black cohosh to demonstrate our method, we employ data on a product characteristic unobservable to consumers to decompose the contribution to consumers’ valuations of observable characteristics into surrogate indicator and direct components. Because consumers are not all “expert appraisers” of the unobservable characteristic, the measured relationship of indicators to the unobservable quality is generally not the one consumers perceive. Consequently, biases that depend upon the nature of consumers’ ineptitude are introduced into the component estimation. The researcher’s inference problem is solved by recognizing that consumers with greater appraisal expertise sort disproportionately to higher quality products. This enables feasible measurement of inept consumers’ relative valuations and conjectures through separate hedonic estimation on high- and low-quality product subsamples. We find that, relative to experts, inept consumers likely underestimate the value of most observable characteristics in indicating black cohosh product authenticity; however they overweight online product ratings.hedonic analysis; surrogate indicators; asymmetric information; pricing strategy; product strategy

Network Externalities, Mutuality, and Compatibility

Positive network externalities can arise when consumers benefit from the consumption of compatible products by other consumers (user-positive consumption externalities) or, alternatively, when they incur costs from the consumption of incompatible products by other consumers (nonuser-negative consumption externalities). But whereas user-positive externalities are typically mutually imposed and imply mutual benefit because they relate to interoperability, with nonuser-negative externalities the costs of incompatibility may be imposed unilaterally and borne asymmetrically. For example, increased risks of death and injury on the roads due to the co-existence of large and small vehicles are imposed exclusively by the owners of the large vehicles and borne exclusively by the occupants of the small vehicles. This paper compares the social optimality of incentives for compatibility under regimes involving user-positive and nonuser-negative externalities. Earlier work with respect to user-positive externalities (e.g., Katz and Shapiro, 1985) suggests that firms with relatively small networks or weak reputations tend to be biased in favor of compatibility, while individual firms’ incentives for compatibility are suboptimal when their networks are closely matched in size. Meanwhile, intuition suggests that with nonuser-negative externalities incentives for incompatibility should always be excessive, reflecting the notion that activities involving unilaterally imposed negative externalities will always be overprovided by the market (in the absence of regulation or Coaseian mitigation). Using a "location" model of differentiated products, we find that, under both regimes, incentives for compatibility tend to be suboptimal when firms' networks are close in size, and excessive for the small firm when the networks differ greatly in size. Surprising public policy implications with respect to externalities are discussed

Adverse Network Effects, Moral Hazard, and the Case of Sport-Utility Vehicles

The paper examines a class of phenomena that combine adverse network effects with moral hazard, using the motor vehicle market as an example to develop and illustrate the key concepts. It is hypothesized that consumers behave as if there is a network externality with respect to vehicle size: the more large vehicles there are on the roads, the greater a consumer’s propensity to seek protection from them by driving a large vehicle herself. One consequence of this is that motor vehicle manufacturers are discouraged from making large vehicles less hazardous to other motorists. The paper measures the network effect and consequent moral hazard using disaggregate data on choice of vehicle type and related household characteristics, combined with a state-level measure of the incidence of traffic fatalities. The results show that for each 1 million light trucks that replace cars, between 961 and 1,812 would-be car buyers decide to buy a light truck instead, in reaction to the increased risk of death posed by the incremental light trucks. This network effect, when run in reverse, creates egregious incentives for vehicle manufacturers: for every life saved due to safety innovations that make light trucks less deadly to other motorists, manufacturers can expect to sell about 31 fewer light trucks

Spin-dynamics of the low-dimensional magnet (CH3)2NH2CuCl3

Dimethylammonium copper (II) chloride (also known as DMACuCl3 or MCCL) is a low dimensional S=1/2 quantum spin system proposed to be an alternating ferro-antiferromagnetic chain with similar magnitude ferromagnetic (FM) and antiferromagnetic (AFM) exchange interactions. Subsequently, it was shown that the existing bulk measurements could be adequately modeled by considering DMACuCl3 as independent AFM and FM dimer spin pairs. We present here new inelastic neutron scattering measurements of the spin-excitations in single crystals of DMACuCl3. These results show significant quasi-one-dimensional coupling, however the magnetic excitations do not propagate along the expected direction. We observe a band of excitations with a gap of 0.95 meV and a bandwidth of 0.82 meV.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figures included in text, submitted to proceedings of International Conference on Neutron Scattering, December 200

Adverse Network Effects, Moral Hazard, and the Case of Sport-Utility Vehicles

The paper examines a class of phenomena that combine adverse network effects with moral hazard, using the motor vehicle market as an example to develop and illustrate the key concepts. It is hypothesized that consumers behave as if there is a network externality with respect to vehicle size: the more large vehicles there are on the roads, the greater a consumer’s propensity to seek protection from them by driving a large vehicle herself. One consequence of this is that motor vehicle manufacturers are discouraged from making large vehicles less hazardous to other motorists. The paper measures the network effect and consequent moral hazard using disaggregate data on choice of vehicle type and related household characteristics, combined with a state-level measure of the incidence of traffic fatalities. The results show that for each 1 million light trucks that replace cars, between 961 and 1,812 would-be car buyers decide to buy a light truck instead, in reaction to the increased risk of death posed by the incremental light trucks. This network effect, when run in reverse, creates egregious incentives for vehicle manufacturers: for every life saved due to safety innovations that make light trucks less deadly to other motorists, manufacturers can expect to sell about 31 fewer light trucks

The Use of Indicators for Unobservable Product Qualities: Inferences Based on Consumer Sorting

We propose a method for measuring the conjectural errors that inexpert consumers make relative to experts in using observable product characteristics as surrogate indicators of a valued unobservable characteristic. Observations on the unobservable characteristic, available to the researcher but not consumers, are used to divide the data into high- and low-quality subsamples. Separate hedonic estimation on the subsamples enables measurement of the relative valuations and conjectures of experts and non-experts with respect to indicators under the assumption that consumers sort across quality grades based on their appraisal expertise. The method is demonstrated using a small sample of SKU-level data on the dietary supplement black cohosh. Our exploratory findings on this sample suggest that, relative to experts, inexpert consumers underestimate the value of most observable characteristics as indicators of black cohosh chemical authenticity; however they overweight therapeutic claims on the product label as a negative indicator of authenticity