LRR Focus: NAFTA Monitoring

[Excerpt] A year and a half after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) took effect, the rosy picture painted by NAFTA supporters has turned grey. A growing number of labor activists, researchers, and academics are developing a more accurate picture of how NAFTA is affecting our lives

Measurements of Agricultural Productivity and Efficiency Gains from NAFTA

The primary objective of this study is to empirically determine whether North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has contributed to increased agricultural productivity in any of its member countries. Implementation of the NAFTA began on January 1, 1994. This agreement removed most barriers to trade and investment among the United States, Canada, and Mexico, in which all non-tariff barriers to agricultural trade between these countries were eliminated. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist Productivity Index were used to estimate the total factor productivity change, technical change, and efficiency change of agricultural production for each NAFTA country. Then, using time series data, the efficiency changes in countries were compared to determine whether NAFTA has been beneficial to the agricultural sector of a member country. , Total factor productivity, technical change, and efficiency change of agricultural production in NAFTA countries were analyzed for the period 1980-2007, and then a comparison between pre- and post-NAFTA periods was also made. In the analysis, aggregate agricultural production was used as the output, and five variables were considered as the inputs, which included: land, labor, capital, fertilizer and livestock. The results revealed that the average annual total factor productivity increased by 1.6 percent during the 1980-2007 period for NAFTA countries, mainly coming from technical change. Total factor productivity did not change obviously during the pre-NAFTA period. In contrast, it increased by 2.7 percent due to technical improvements in post-NAFTA period. Consequently, it is noticeable that compared to the pre-NAFTA period, the countries especially Mexico performed better by achieving higher levels of productivity in agricultural production.Agricultural Efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist Index, NAFTA, Total Factor Productivity, International Relations/Trade,

NAFTA and the Mexican Economy

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), in effect since January 1994, plays a very strong role in the bilateral economic relationship between Mexico and the United States. The two countries are also closely tied in areas not directly related to trade and investment such as security, environmental, migration, and health issues. The effects of NAFTA on Mexico and the state of the Mexican economy have important impacts on U.S. economic and political interests. As NAFTA approaches its 15th anniversary, a number of policymakers have raised the issue of revisiting NAFTA and renegotiating parts of the agreement. Some important factors in evaluating NAFTA include the effects of the agreement on Mexico and how these relate to U.S.-Mexico economic relations. In the 110th Congress, major issues of concern have been related mostly to economic conditions in Mexico, the effect of NAFTA on the United States and Mexico, and Mexican migrant workers in the United States. In 1990, then Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari approached the United States with the idea of forming a free trade agreement (FTA). Mexico’s main motivation in pursuing an FTA with the United States was to stabilize the Mexican economy by attracting foreign direct investment. The Mexican economy had experienced many difficulties throughout most of the 1980s with a significant deepening of poverty. The intention of Mexico in entering NAFTA was to increase export diversification by attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), which would help create jobs, increase wage rates, and reduce poverty. At the time that NAFTA went into effect, the expectation among supporters was that the agreement would improve investor confidence in Mexico, attract investment, and narrow the income differentials between Mexico and the United States and Canada. Measuring the effects of NAFTA on the Mexican economy is difficult because the economy was also affected by other factors, such as economic cycles in the United States (Mexico’s largest trading partner) and currency fluctuations. In addition, Mexico’s unilateral trade liberalization measures of the 1980s and the currency crisis of 1995 both affected economic growth, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and real wages. While NAFTA may have brought economic and social benefits to the Mexican economy as a whole, the benefits have not been evenly distributed throughout the country. Wages and employment tend to be higher in states experiencing higher levels of FDI and trade. The agricultural sector experienced a higher amount of worker displacement after NAFTA because of increased competition from the United States and because of Mexican domestic agricultural reforms. In terms of regional effects, initial conditions in Mexico determined which Mexican states experienced stronger economic growth as a result of NAFTA. States with higher levels of telecommunications and transportation infrastructure gained more benefits than poorer states with lower levels of education, infrastructure, and institutional capacity. Some economists argue that while trade liberalization may narrow income disparities over the long run with other countries, it may indirectly lead to larger disparities in income levels within a country. This report will be updated as events warrant

The Role of NAFTA and Returns to Scale in Export Duration

While exports within NAFTA face a lower hazard of ceasing, its onset has increased the hazard for Mexican and U.S. intra NAFTA exports. Intra NAFTA exports still enjoy a lower hazard relative to exports to non–members. While NAFTA did affect the hazard for Canada’s exports in the short run, its effect on Mexican and U.S. exports is persistent. Exports of IRS manufacturing products face the highest hazard in the case of Canada and Mexico, while IRS natural resource products have the highest hazard for Mexico. The effect of NAFTA on the returns to scale product types is exporter specific.

WHO IS BENEFITING THE MOST FROM NAFTA? AN INTERVENTION TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Unlike previous studies on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which examined either trade or income effects by using forecasted trade values, this paper investigates the impact of NAFTA on both bilateral trade and income of each member country - US, Canada, and Mexico - by using historical data. This paper covers time series data before and after NAFTA was formed, from 1980 to 1999. We consider NAFTA as a prolonged impulse function in international trade activities among the three trading partners by employing an intervention-function model. Findings reveal that NAFTA increases bilateral trade between US-Canada and US-Mexico, and in terms of income, NAFTA benefits Canada the most ¡°certainly¡±. To substantiate these findings, Granger causality analysis is employed, which in turn supports our intervention-function results.NAFTA, Intervention-function Model, Time Series Analysis, Granger Causality

Trump’s New Trade Policy: Risks for North American Food and Farms

In his presidential campaign, Trump promised to build a “great, great wall”, and he promised to renegotiate the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), leaving open the possibility of pulling out entirely. There are many concerns with NAFTA as it currently exists and there are many areas in which renegotiation would be welcome. This essay argues, however, the Trump administration’s loyalties to big business could hinder positive change. If NAFTA is significantly renegotiated, it should be with farmer and consumer interests in mind, not those of multinational corporations

Industry Structure Similarities, Trade Agreements, and Business Cycle Synchronization

This paper analyzes the effects of industry structure similarities, free trade agreements, and geographic borders on regional business cycle correlation, using fifty US states, 10 Canadian provinces, and 1 Canadian territory as a case study. Using two cross-sectional OLS regressions and one panel data OLS regression, this study finds that pair-wise gross territorial product growth correlation decreased significantly after NAFTA ratification for state-state, province-province, and state-province territorial pairs, contrary to previous literature’s results. NAFTA effectively decoupled intra-national business cycles in the US and Canada while also desynchronizing cross-border pair-wise GSP growth correlation, but cross-border pair-wise GSP growth correlation was much less desynchronized post-NAFTA relative to intra-national pairs. These results indicate that NAFTA and the US-Canada border may produce two opposing forces that dampen each other’s desynchronizing effects

The giant sucking sound: did NAFTA devour the Mexican peso?

Five years of economic reforms had made Mexico a model for other developing nations by the end of 1993, when Mexico was preparing to enter into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and the United States. But less than a year later, in December 1994, Mexico experienced a severe financial crisis, forcing it to borrow from the IMF and the United States. Some commentators blamed the enactment of NAFTA for the devaluation of the peso and the ensuing economic turmoil in Mexico, with some calling for renegotiation or even repeal of the agreement. Author Christopher J. Neely examines the relationship between NAFTA and the 1994 peso crisis and raises some provocative questions: did NAFTA cause or exacerbate the devaluation of the peso? or did NAFTA help alleviate some of the consequences of the crisis?North American Free Trade Agreement ; Mexico ; Capital movements ; Devaluation of currency ; Peso, Mexican

Efficiency Measure in Nitrogen Management under U.S. Trade Induced Corn Production

The overall objective of this paper is to measure the impact of the undesirable outputs from NAFTA (agricultural production and trade) on the environment by years in post-NAFTA period. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used to measure environmental efficiency by considering desirable (corn production) and undesirable (nitrogen) outputs in fifteen states. DEA allowed us to measure the level of nitrogen pollution to be reduced by modeling undesirable output in efficiency evaluation. Data from 15 states (Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin) on corn production, land use and nitrogen fertilizer from 1994-2008 (post-NAFTA) were considered. The results indicated environmental inefficiency, nitrogen pollution and land use inefficiency were increasing over the years in the post-NAFTA period.Data Envelopment Analysis, Environmental Efficiency, Nitrogen Pollution, NAFTA., International Relations/Trade,

IMPACTS OF GLOBALIZATION ON AGRICULTURAL COMPETITIVENESS: THE CASE OF NAFTA

Major components of agricultural competitiveness, including definitions, factors, and indicators of competitiveness, are discussed, The case of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is used to illustrate how factors have influenced the competitive position of the NAFTA countries. Traditional neoclassical trade theory is used to evaluate the impact of currency exchange rate fluctuations and trade preferences on agricultural competitiveness. Pre- and post-NAFTA market shares are evaluated for five agricultural commodities of importance to the southern United States. The results of these evaluations are compared with theoretical expectations and discussed with special emphasis on implications for future trade negotiations.agricultural competitiveness, exchange rates, international trade, NAFTA, International Relations/Trade, F14, Q17, Q18,