An analysis of youth unemployment in the euro area

The paper starts by presenting some stylised facts on youth unemployment over the last two decades, both at the euro area and the country level. It shows that despite declining considerably over the last few years, youth unemployment has remained at a high level relative to other age groups in most euro area countries. The paper finds that there is a positive relationship between the share of young people in the total population and the youth unemployment rate, i.e. the smaller the share of young people in the population, the lower the risk of them being unemployed. At the same time, economic conditions are negatively correlated with the youth unemployment rate, i.e. the youth unemployment rate increases when the economic situation worsens. Moreover, robust results across the regression scenarios show that higher employment protection and minimum wages imply a higher youth unemployment rate, while active labour market policies (ALMPs) tend to reduce it. The results also indicate that the increasing share of services employment in total employment is helping to reduce unemployment among young persons. Furthermore, the increase in the youth inactivity rate, which is mainly due to the fact that there are more young people in education, is also linked to the overall decline in youth unemployment. Finally, as regards education, the results indicate that the number of years of education, the number of young people with vocational training and, to a lesser extent high scores in the PISA study, are associated with lower youth unemployment rates. The share of the young population not in school, however, is positively correlated with the unemployment rate. As youth unemployment is subject to certain country-specific features, each country should identify the relevant underlying sources of youth unemployment and react accordingly. Governments can make a positive contribution to the smooth transition of young persons fromeducation to the labour market by providing a well-functioning education system and labour market institutions that do not introduce distortions into the labour market. JEL Classification: I2, J11, J13, J21, J64.Youth, unemployment, employment, demographic trends, institutions, education.

Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States

To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest that, as has been found for other countries before, it is difficult to find models that significantly outperform a simple benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. JEL Classification: C53, E31, E37, E51, E52, E62, P24Fiscal Policy, Inflation forecasting, information content of money, leading indicators, monetary policy, new EU member states

An analysis of youth unemployment in the euro area

The paper starts by presenting some stylised facts on youth unemployment over the last two decades, both at the euro area and the country level. It shows that despite declining considerably over the last few years, youth unemployment has remained at a high level relative to other age groups in most euro area countries. The paper finds that there is a positive relationship between the share of young people in the total population and the youth unemployment rate, i.e. the smaller the share of young people in the population, the lower the risk of them being unemployed. At the same time, economic conditions are negatively correlated with the youth unemployment rate, i.e. the youth unemployment rate increases when the economic situation worsens. Moreover, robust results across the regression scenarios show that higher employment protection and minimum wages imply a higher youth unemployment rate, while active labour market policies (ALMPs) tend to reduce it. The results also indicate that the increasing share of services employment in total employment is helping to reduce unemployment among young persons. Furthermore, the increase in the youth inactivity rate, which is mainly due to the fact that there are more young people in education, is also linked to the overall decline in youth unemployment. Finally, as regards education, the results indicate that the number of years of education, the number of young people with vocational training and, to a lesser extent high scores in the PISA study, are associated with lower youth unemployment rates. The share of the young population not in school, however, is positively correlated with the unemployment rate. As youth unemployment is subject to certain country-specific features, each country should identify the relevant underlying sources of youth unemployment and react accordingly. Governments can make a positive contribution to the smooth transition of young persons fromeducation to the labour market by providing a well-functioning education system and labour market institutions that do not introduce distortions into the labour market

Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States

To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest that, as has been found for other countries before, it is difficult to find models that significantly outperform a simple benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons

Structural reforms in EMU and the role of monetary policy – a survey of the literature

The need for structural reforms in the euro area has often been advocated. These reforms would improve the welfare of euro area citizens and also, as a welcome side-effect, facilitate the conduct of monetary policy. Against this background, a particularly relevant question that can be posed is whether monetary policy should help implement structural reforms. The objective of this paper is to provide a review of the existing literature on structural reforms in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and to discuss the possible ways in which monetary policy could support the structural reform process. In the context of EMU, the main conclusions that emerge are that the monetary policy for the euro area is not the appropriate tool for mitigating the potential and uncertain short-term costs of reforms or for providing incentives for structural reforms at the national level. However, credible monetary policy aimed at price stability can improve the functioning of the supply side of the economy and contribute to an environment which is conducive to welfare-enhancing structural changes. In addition, the ECB’s contribution to the implementation of structural reforms takes the form of analysis, assessment and communication.

The identification of fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances - unexploited synergies under the strengthened EU governance framework

In the light of the lessons learned from the euro area sovereign debt crisis, the EU fiscal and macroeconomic governance framework was overhauled in 2011. Against this background, this paper analyses whether the broadened surveillance of fiscal and macroeconomic indicators under the strengthened governance framework would have facilitated the identification of emerging imbalances, had it been in place before the crisis. The findings suggest that the strengthened governance framework would have given earlier signals about emerging excessive fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances. Euro area countries thus would have been obliged to take preventive and corrective action at an earlier stage, provided that the stricter rules had been effectively implemented. At the same time, the paper concludes that the increased reliance of the EU fiscal governance framework on unobservable magnitudes such as the structural budget balance, which are difficult to measure in real time, will continue to impede the timely identification of underlying fiscal imbalances. It is suggested that the new macroeconomic imbalance procedure could have given earlier indications about the emergence of excessive macroeconomic imbalances, which in turn posed risks for fiscal sustainability. Looking forward, these preliminary findings suggest possible synergies between the, until now largely unrelated, fiscal and macroeconomic governance frameworks

Labour supply and employment in the euro area countries - developments and challenges

The aim of this report, which has been prepared by a Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Eurosystem, is to describe and analyse the main developments in labour supply and its determinants in the euro area, review the links between labour supply and labour market institutions, assess how well labour supply reflects the demand for labour in the euro area and identify the future challenges for policy-makers. The data available for this report generally cover the period from 1983 to spring 2007. JEL Classification: E5, J1, J2, J6.Labour supply, employment, participation, hours worked, immigration, skill and education, structural policies, labour demand, unemployment, euro area countries, labour markets, taxes and benefits, childcare, pensions, training, human capital, labour quality, working time and contracts, discrimination, mismatch, returns to education.

Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area" by

Abstract In this paper we examine the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing. We critically assess the widely used projections of the Working Group on Ageing Populations (AWG) of the EU's Economic Policy Committee and argue that ageing costs may be higher than projected in the AWG reference scenario. Taking into account adjusted headline estimates for ageing costs, largely based upon the sensitivity analysis carried out by the AWG, we consider alternative indicators to quantify sustainability gaps for euro area countries. With respect to the policy implications, we assess the appropriateness of different budgetary strategies to restore fiscal sustainability taking into account intergenerational equity. Our stylised analysis based upon the lifetime contribution to the government's primary balance of different generations suggests that an important degree of pre-funding of the ageing costs is necessary to avoid shifting the burden of adjustment in a disproportionate way to future generations. For many euro area countries this implies that the medium-term targets defined in the context of the revised stability and growth pact would ideally need to be revised upwards to significant surpluses