ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC CRISES AND WAR ON THE ACTIVITIES OF JSC “UKRZALIZNYTSIA”

Despite the substantial threat that macroeconomic crisis and war pose to the economic activity of organizations, little attention is paid in the existing literature to the rigorous identification and quantification of such effects. Given this fact, the purpose of the study is to rigorously estimate and quantify the effects of military aggression on the economic activity of organizations in the context of macroeconomic crises. The research methodology includes empirical and quantitative analysis. The empirical analysis was conducted on the basis of official statistical data of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. Quantitative analysis is based on Event Study and Difference-in-Difference methods to quantify the impact of macroeconomic crises and the war on the organization. Quantitative estimates of the negative impacts of two macroeconomic crises (2009 and 2014–2015) and military action (which began in 2014, but does not take into account its new stage – war from 2022) in Ukraine on the freight traffic of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia" were obtained. The application of the proposed approach to assessing the effect of war due to its universality is possible for the needs and goals not only of transport companies but also of other organizations. The novelty – among the available developments on this issue, a formal assessment of the effect of military aggression which began in 2014 in the macroeconomic crises’ context was conducted for the first time using the existing methods, which allows obtaining parameter estimates resistant to individual-specific and time-specific heterogeneity

Development of a Model for Quantitative Assessment of Risks and Identification of Threats in Anti-Crisis Management of a Machine-Building Enterprise

The aim of the article is to develop a model for quantitative assessment of risks in anti-crisis management of a machine-building enterprise. The quantitative assessment will allow to identify among the risks the threats that can be considered as catastrophic risks. To assess the integral risk of anti-crisis management of the enterprise, there used a process approach distinguishing the process of anti-crisis management activity and the process of implementation of the anti-crisis program. Within the framework of the process the types of activity are singled out, for each of them risks are identified with revealing their reasons. There built a fuzzy hierarchical model comprising the following elements: terminal nodes — indicators (factors) of risks; non-terminal nodes — separate risks that are characteristic for the processes and risks of each process as a whole; root of the tree — the integral risk of anti-crisis management. The expediency of building a hierarchical fuzzy model, within which conclusions are formed for intermediate variables, is substantiated. Based on the own research and taking into account the opinion of experts, the parameters of the trapezoidal membership functions for assessing indicators and risks are determined. Fuzzy bases of knowledge about the correlation are formed using the Mamdani algorithm. The adequacy of the model is estimated on the basis of the learning sample. The built fuzzy model makes it possible to obtain risk assessment based on the set values of the indicators, thus providing an analysis of the sensitivity of risks to various factors. It is easily adjusted to other conditions and types of economic activity of the enterprise