60 research outputs found

    Spatially inhomogeneous populations with seed-banks: I. Duality, existence and clustering

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    We consider a system of interacting Moran models with seed-banks. Individuals live in colonies and are subject to resampling and migration as long as they are active. Each colony has a seed-bank into which individuals can retreat to become dormant, suspending their resampling and migration until they become active again. The colonies are labelled by Z(d), d >= 1, playing the role of a geographic space. The sizes of the active and the dormant population are finite and depend on the location of the colony. Migration is driven by a random walk transition kernel. Our goal is to study the equilibrium behaviour of the system as a function of the underlying model parameters. In the present paper, under a mild condition on the sizes of the active populations, the system is well defined and has a dual. The dual consists of a system of interacting coalescing random walks in an inhomogeneous environment that switch between an active state and a dormant state. We analyse the dichotomy of coexistence (= multitype equilibria) versus clustering (= mono-type equilibria) and show that clustering occurs if and only if two random walks in the dual starting from arbitrary states eventually coalesce with probability one. The presence of the seed-bank enhances genetic diversity. In the dual this is reflected by the presence of time lapses during which the random walks are dormant and do not move.Analysis and Stochastic

    A pilot study of transrectal endoscopic ultrasound elastography in inflammatory bowel disease

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    BACKGROUND: Using standard diagnostic algorithms it is not always possible to establish the correct phenotype of inflammatory bowel disease which is essential for therapeutical decisions. Endoscopic ultrasound elastography is a new endoscopic procedure which can differentiate the stiffness of normal and pathological tissue by ultrasound. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the role of transrectal ultrasound elastography in distiction between Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. ----- METHODS: A total 30 Crohn's disease, 25 ulcerative colitis, and 28 non-inflammatory bowel disease controls were included. Transrectal ultrasound elastography was performed in all patients and controls. In all ulcerative coltis patients and 80% of Crohn's disease patients endoscopy was performed to assess disease activity in the rectum. ----- RESULTS: Significant difference in rectal wall thickness and strain ratio was detected between patients with Crohn's disease and controls (p = 0.0001). CD patients with active disease had higher strain ratio than patients in remission (p = 0.02). In ulcerative colitis group a significant difference in rectal wall thickness was found between controls and patients with active disease (p = 0.03). A significant difference in rectal wall thickness (p = 0.02) and strain ratio (p = 0.0001) was detected between Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis patient group. Crohn's disease patients with active disease had a significantly higher strain ratio compared to ulcerative colitis patients with active disease (p = 0.0001). ----- CONCLUSION: Transrectal ultrasound elastography seems to be a promising new diagnostic tool in the field of inflammatory bowel disease. Further study on a larger cohort of patients is needed to definitely assess the role of transrectal ultrasound elastography in inflammatory bowel disease

    Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty).

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    This paper explores the possibility of deriving frequency distributions of extreme discharges by continuous simulation. The rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL is applied within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework to the River Wye catchment, Plynlimon, Wales, using a 21-year period of rainfall and discharge observations. Rejection of non-behavioural parameter sets is achieved through an evaluation of both annual maximum discharge and continuous hydrograph simulation. Annual maximum peak timings and rankings are also considered. It is demonstrated that, within the prescribed limits, TOPMODEL can adequately achieve both flood frequency and continuous simulation modelling goals. Extension of the flood frequency estimations beyond the upper limit of the observed series is attained through the coupling of behavioural TOPMODEL sets with those of a stochastic rainfall generator for 1000-year simulation periods using hourly time steps. The rainfall model is conditioned on the observed rainfall frequency statistics for different storm duration classes, also within the GLUE framework
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