The Moving Centre: Preferences for Government Activity in Britain, 1950–2005

The political ‘centre’ is often discussed in debates about public policy and analyses of party strategies and election outcomes. Yet, to date, there has been little effort to estimate the political centre outside the United States. This article outlines a method of estimating the political centre using public opinion data collected for the period between 1950 and 2005. It is demonstrated that it is possible to measure the centre in Britain, that it moves over time, that it shifts in response to government activity and, furthermore, that it has an observable association with general election outcomes.</jats:p

Policy accommodation versus electoral turnover:Policy representation in Britain, 1945-2015

Does public policy in the UK respond to changes in public preferences? If so, is this the result of the government changing its policy to reflect preferences (‘policy accommodation’) or the result of governments that pursue unpopular policies being replaced at elections by governments more in line with the public (‘electoral turnover’)? We explore these questions by estimating aggregate public preferences (‘the policy mood’) using responses to 287 questions administered 2087 times and policy using budgetary data (‘non-military government expenditure’) for the whole of the post-war period. We find that mood moves in the opposite direction to policy and variations in mood are associated with variations in vote intentions. Policy is responsive to party control but not directly responsive to mood. Shifts in mood eventually lead to a change in government and thus policy, but this process may be very slow if the public has doubts about the competence of the oppositio