The roles of static stability and tropical – extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector’s interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill

Recent progress in understanding and predicting Atlantic decadal climate variability

Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems