Depopulation As A Policy Challenge In The Context Of Global Demographic Trends

Depopulation is a recurring theme, but its contemporary causes tell a new story. Population decline today is the partial result of a natural development process. A smaller population does not have to be the defining factor of a country in economic or geopolitical considerations. A population’s composition is more consequential than simply its size. This report addresses depopulation from a multi-dimensional demographic perspective, not only looking at population size and age structure, but also differentiating by level of education and labor force participation

Doubling of World Population Unlikely

Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century

Population Beyond the Boundaries of Demography

We in the Population Program of IIASA are frequently asked what systems analysis signifies in relation to demography. How does a systems approach differ from specialized analysis in the field of population? This working paper attempts to answer that question. It says, in brief, that systems analysis brings in a wider range of variables, tries to find mechanisms by which population influences the economy, the polity, the environment, and how these in turn influence population. It seeks to reveal those negative feedback mechanisms by which stability is maintained, and positive feedbacks that build up uncontrolled consequences. Different writers have necessarily different ways of representing systems analysis. The examples that follow, provided by myself and my colleagues, will show something of the range of legitimate interpretations

Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA

Demographic Aspects of Changes in the Soviet Pension System

The paper discusses the consequences of possible demographic changes in the USSR as a whole and at the regional level upon the pension system under different assumptions about retirement ages. Some general recommendations on changes in the pension system based on international experience are presented

Averaged Energy Inequalities for the Non-Minimally Coupled Classical Scalar Field

The stress energy tensor for the classical non-minimally coupled scalar field is known not to satisfy the point-wise energy conditions of general relativity. In this paper we show, however, that local averages of the classical stress energy tensor satisfy certain inequalities. We give bounds for averages along causal geodesics and show, e.g., that in Ricci-flat background spacetimes, ANEC and AWEC are satisfied. Furthermore we use our result to show that in the classical situation we have an analogue to the phenomenon of quantum interest. These results lay the foundations for analogous energy inequalities for the quantised non-minimally coupled fields, which will be discussed elsewhere.Comment: 8 pages, RevTeX4. Minor typos corrected; version to appear in Phys Rev

Nuclear Many-Body Dynamics constrained by QCD and Chiral Symmetry

We present a novel description of nuclear many-body systems, both for nuclear matter and finite nuclei, emphasizing the connection with the condensate structure of the QCD ground state and spontaneous chiral symmetry breaking. Lorentz scalar and vector mean-fields are introduced in accordance with QCD sum rules. Nuclear binding arises from pionic fluctuations, using in-medium chiral perturbation theory up to three-loop order. Ground state properties of $^{16}$O and $^{40}$Ca are calculated. The built-in QCD constraints reduce the number of input parameters significantly in comparison with purely phenomenological relativistic mean-field approaches.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to be published in European Physical Journal

Contribution of the nucleon-hyperon reaction channels to K−^- production in proton-nucleus collisions

The cross sections for producing K$^-$ mesons in nucleon-hyperon elementary processes are estimated assuming one-pion exchange and using the experimentally known pion-hyperon cross sections. The results are implemented in a transport model which is applied to calculation of proton-nucleus collisions. In significant difference to earlier estimates for heavy-ion collisions the inclusion of the nucleon-hyperon cross section roughly doubles the K$^-$ production in near-threshold proton-nucleus collisions

Effective thermodynamics of strongly coupled qubits

Interactions between a quantum system and its environment at low temperatures can lead to violations of thermal laws for the system. The source of these violations is the entanglement between system and environment, which prevents the system from entering into a thermal state. On the other hand, for two-state systems, we show that one can define an effective temperature, placing the system into a `pseudo-thermal' state where effective thermal laws are upheld. We then numerically explore these assertions for an n-state system inspired by the spin-boson environment.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure