An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale

Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800–47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30–40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration

Understanding complex relationships between human well-being and land use change in Mozambique using a multi-scale participatory scenario planning process

The path for bringing millions of people out of poverty in Africa is likely to coincide with important changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Envisioning the different possible pathways for agricultural, economic and social development, and their implications for changes in LULC, ecosystem services and society well-being, will improve policy-making. This paper presents a case that uses a multi-scale participatory scenario planning method to facilitate the understanding of the complex interactions between LULC change and the wellbeing of the rural population and their possible future evolution in Mozambique up to 2035. Key drivers of change were identified: the empowerment of civil society, the effective application of legislation and changes in rural technologies (e.g., information and communications technologies and renewable energy sources). Three scenarios were constructed: one characterized by the government promoting large investments; a second scenario characterized by the increase in local community power and public policies to promote small and medium enterprises; and a third, intermediate scenario. All three scenarios highlight qualitative large LULC changes, either driven by large companies or by small and medium scale farmers. The scenarios have different impact in wellbeing and equity, the first one implying a higher rural to urban area migration. The results also show that the effective application of the law can produce different results, from assuring large international investments to assuring the improvement of social services like education, health care and extension services. Successful application of these policies, both for biodiversity and ecosystem services protection, and for the social services needed to improve the well-being of the Mozambican rural population, will have to overcome significant barriers

ПОБОЧНЫЕ ЭФФЕКТЫ СОРАФЕНИБА, СУНИТИНИБА И ТЕМСИРОЛИМУСА И ИХ ЛЕЧЕНИЕ У БОЛЬНЫХ МЕТАСТАТИЧЕСКИМ ПОЧЕЧНО-КЛЕТОЧНЫМ РАКОМ

Objective: to provide a systematic review of the adverse reactions of sorafenib, sunitinib, and temsirolimus and to outline actions for their prevention and correction.Materials and methods. To provide a description of the main methods to decrease the toxicity of these drugs, the authors made a systemat- ic review of their adverse reactions, by using the publications available in the PubMed database, monographs on the medicines, and instruc- tions for their medical use. Results. The frequency of their adverse reactions varied from < 1 to 72%. Grades III—IV side effects are noted more rarely; their incidence is < 1 to 13% for sorafenib, < 1 to 16% for sunitinib, and 1 to 20% for temsirolimus. Sinitinib causes most grades III—IV adverse reactions and sofafenib does the least. However, close comparative studies of the safety of these kinase inhibitors are still lacking. Virtually all side effects can be effectively prevented and treated.  Conclusion. The prevention, timely recognition, and treatment of the adverse reactions of these agents are of great importance, which allows avoidance of the unneeded dosage reduction that may result in worse therapeutic efficiency.   Цель исследования — представить систематический обзор побочных эффектов сорафениба, сунитиниба и темсиролимуса, а также в общих чертах описать меры по их предупреждению и коррекции. Материалы и методы. Для того чтобы представить описание основных методов, направленных на снижение токсичности этих препаратов, нами проведен систематический обзор побочных эффектов на основе публикаций в базе данных PubMed, монографий по лекарственным препаратам и инструкций по их медицинскому применению.Результаты. Частота развития побочных эффектов варьирует от < 1 до 72%. Побочные эффекты III—IV степени отмечаются реже, частота их возникновения от < 1 до 13% для сорафениба, от < 1 до 16% — для сунитиниба и от 1 до 20% — для темсиролимуса. Сунитиниб вызывает наибольшее количество побочных эффектов III—IV степени, а сорафениб — наименьшее. Однако все еще отсутствуют тщательные сравнительные клинические исследования безопасности этих ингибиторов киназ. Практически все побочные эффекты можно эффективно предупреждать и лечить.Заключение. Большое значение имеют профилактика, своевременное распознавание и лечение побочных эффектов этих препаратов, что позволяет избежать ненужного снижения дозы, грозящего ослаблением эффективности лечения.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological intervention within services for depression delivered by primary care workers in Nepal: economic evaluation of a randomized control trial

Abstract Background Integrating services for depression into primary care is key to reducing the treatment gap in low- and middle-income countries. We examined the value of providing the Healthy Activity Programme (HAP), a behavioral activation psychological intervention, within services for depression delivered by primary care workers in Chitwan, Nepal using data from the Programme for Improving Mental Health Care. Methods People diagnosed with depression were randomized to receive either standard treatment (ST), comprised of psychoeducation, antidepressant medication, and home-based follow up, or standard treatment plus psychological intervention (T + P). We estimated incremental costs and health effects of T + P compared to ST, with quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and depression symptom scores over 12 months as health effects. Nonparametric uncertainty analysis provided confidence intervals around each incremental effectiveness ratio (ICER); results are presented in 2020 international dollars. Results Sixty participants received ST and 60 received T + P. Implementation costs (ST = $329, T + P =$617) were substantially higher than service delivery costs (ST = $18.7, T + P =$22.4) per participant. ST and T + P participants accrued 46.5 and 49.4 QALYs, respectively. The ICERs for T + P relative to ST were $4422 per QALY gained (95$2484 to $9550) – slightly above the highly cost-effective threshold – and −$53.21 (95% confidence interval: −$105.8 to −$30.2) per unit change on the Patient Health Questionnaire. Conclusion Providing HAP within integrated depression services in Chitwan was cost-effective, if not highly cost-effective. Efforts to scale up integrated services in Nepal and similar contexts should consider including evidence-based psychological interventions as a part of cost-effective mental healthcare for depression

First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis

Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6–12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species’ primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995–1998 and 2006–2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2–8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time

Genetic clustering on the hippocampal surface for genome-wide association studies

Imaging genetics aims to discover how variants in the human genome influence brain measures derived from images. Genome-wide association scans (GWAS) can screen the genome for common differences in our DNA that relate to brain measures. In small samples, GWAS has low power as individual gene effects are weak and one must also correct for multiple comparisons across the genome and the image. Here we extend recent work on genetic clustering of images, to analyze surface-based models of anatomy using GWAS. We performed spherical harmonic analysis of hippocampal surfaces, automatically extracted from brain MRI scans of 1254 subjects. We clustered hippocampal surface regions with common genetic influences by examining genetic correlations (rg) between the normalized deformation values at all pairs of surface points. Using genetic correlations to cluster surface measures, we were able to boost effect sizes for genetic associations, compared to clustering with traditional phenotypic correlations using Pearson's r

Accounting for female reproductive cycles in a superpopulation capture–recapture framework

Superpopulation capture–recapture models are useful for estimating the abundance of long-lived, migratory species because they are able to account for the fluid nature of annual residency at migratory destinations. Here we extend the superpopulation POPAN model to explicitly account for heterogeneity in capture probability linked to reproductive cycles (POPAN-τ). This extension has potential application to a range of species that have temporally variable life stages (e.g., non-annual breeders such as albatrosses and baleen whales) and results in a significant reduction in bias over the standard POPAN model. We demonstrate the utility of this model in simultaneously estimating abundance and annual population growth rate (λ) in the New Zealand (NZ) southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) from 1995 to 2009. DNA profiles were constructed for the individual identification of more than 700 whales, sampled during two sets of winter expeditions in 1995–1998 and 2006–2009. Due to differences in recapture rates between sexes, only sex-specific models were considered. The POPAN-τ models, which explicitly account for a decrease in capture probability in non-calving years, fit the female data set significantly better than do standard superpopulation models (DAIC . 25). The best POPAN-τ model (AIC) gave a superpopulation estimate of 1162 females for 1995–2009 (95% CL 921, 1467) and an estimated annual increase of 5% (95% CL -2%, 13%). The best model (AIC) gave a superpopulation estimate of 1007 males (95% CL 794, 1276) and an estimated annual increase of 7% (95% CL 5%, 9%) for 1995–2009. Combined, the total superpopulation estimate for 1995–2009 was 2169 whales (95% CL 1836, 2563). Simulations suggest that failure to account for the effect of reproductive status on the capture probability would result in a substantial positive bias (+19%) in female abundance estimates.This is the publisher’s final pdf

An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale

Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800–47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30–40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration

Partial Volume Segmentation of Brain MRI Scans of any Resolution and Contrast

Partial voluming (PV) is arguably the last crucial unsolved problem in Bayesian segmentation of brain MRI with probabilistic atlases. PV occurs when voxels contain multiple tissue classes, giving rise to image intensities that may not be representative of any one of the underlying classes. PV is particularly problematic for segmentation when there is a large resolution gap between the atlas and the test scan, e.g., when segmenting clinical scans with thick slices, or when using a high-resolution atlas. In this work, we present PV-SynthSeg, a convolutional neural network (CNN) that tackles this problem by directly learning a mapping between (possibly multi-modal) low resolution (LR) scans and underlying high resolution (HR) segmentations. PV-SynthSeg simulates LR images from HR label maps with a generative model of PV, and can be trained to segment scans of any desired target contrast and resolution, even for previously unseen modalities where neither images nor segmentations are available at training. PV-SynthSeg does not require any preprocessing, and runs in seconds. We demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of the method with extensive experiments on three datasets and 2,680 scans. The code is available at https://github.com/BBillot/SynthSeg.Comment: accepted for MICCAI 202