The influence of weather-climatic and social factors on population mortality from circulatory diseases in Russia

Aim. To study the links between the standard mortality rate of the population from circulatory system diseases (CSD) with factors: weather-climatic (inter-day jumps in air temperature and atmospheric pressure by seasons and for the year) and social (average annual income per person and the number of doctors of all specialties) in Russia for the period 1995-2015. Materials and methods. According to station data and data of reanalysis, seasonal and annual amounts of day-to-day jumps in air temperature were calculated more than the absolute value of 4° and 6°C and the atmospheric pressure more than the absolute value of 8 GPa. The links between climate variables and the mortality rate of the population, taking into account social factors, were investigated using factor analysis, including regression and variance analyses. Results. Annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps of different signs vary greatly on the territory: the maximum amounts are 3-4 times higher than the minimum ones. The geographical distribution of air temperature fluctuations differs from the distribution of atmospheric pressure fluctuations. The sum of temperature jumps in the absolute value of more than 6°C is about twice less than the sum of jumps more than 4°C, but they are characterized by similarity of geographical distribution. The sum of the jumps of temperature (pressure) is reduced during the summer is approximately two times compared to the winter. The maximum jumps are observed mainly in the Northern regions with low population density, but with high per capita income, while the minimum is observed in the South-Western parts of the European part of the country with high population density, as well as middle and low income. Global warming does not significantly affect the reduction of annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps. Factor analysis of social and climatic variables in the territory for each year indicates the dominance of the influence of the social factor (per capita income) on the mortality rate from CSD. Conclusion. Factor analysis is integrated in the annual scale climatic and social variables showed a dominant effect on the coefficient of mortality from CSD, the factor of standard of living (per capita income of the population). Then the significance of the impact factors is consistently reduced: negative atmospheric pressure jumps, average seasonal pressure, health care level, positive pressure jumps. The significance of temperature variables is the smallest

Положения арктического фронта в периоды похолодания и потепления Арктики

Winter positions of the Arctic front (AF) during the known periods of the climate cooling (1949–1980) and warming (1981–2012) were analyzed within the sector 10° W – 60° E. The AF positios were determined by the following indicators: 1) a surface pressure; 2) horizontal wind divergence; 3) geostrophic vortex; 4) geostrophic heat advection. The main extrema of these four dynamic characteristics coincide and fall on the latitude 72.5° N. This corresponds to the average position of the AF for a given resolution and confirms correctness of our choice of these characteristics as the AF indicators. Relative differences between mean profiles of all values of the above warm and cold periods were calculated using method of normalization of each value for the corresponding latitude by the standard deviation for the entire period (1949–2012). To study variability of the AF position we used mean yearly winter profiles of the variables under investigation together with the statistical analysis of positions of the extrema within the latitude degrees. For pressure and geostrophic advection positions of the absolute minima were determined while for geostrophic vortex and divergence – positions of the absolute maxima. The data show that according to different criteria the AF average positions for the period 1949–2012 lie within the zone 72.4–73.4 N. The interannual variability of the AF positions lies within the 1–2 degrees of latitude and corresponds to the range of the air temperature variability above the zone of maximal changes in the sea ice area. According to the standard deviation values of the divergence and the geostrophic vortex are the most stable in region of the AF passage. Comparison of differences of the studied characteristics between the warm and cold periods shows that the changes in the AF positions are not statistically significant (P(t) < 91% t‑criterion) unlike the changes in positions of isolines which characterize the warming (P(t) = 100%). Thus, despite significant changes in properties of the surface and the temperature regime to the north of 72.5 N (the warming), according to all the criteria the AF climatic position remains quasi‑stationary for 32‑year periods of averaging.Исследовано зимнее положение арктического фронта в секторе 10° з.д. – 60° в.д. в периоды похолодания (1949–1980 гг.) и потепления (1981–2012 гг.) Арктики. Положение арктического фронта определялось по положению минимума давления и геострофической адвекции, максимумам геострофического вихря и дивергенции ветра. Установлено, что разности в положении арктического фронта для периода потепления и похолодания статистически незначимы для всех перечисленных параметров и положение арктического фронта можно считать квазистационарным при значительном потеплении на 3–6 °С за 32 года

ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЕ ПОТЕПЛЕНИЯ НА ДИСКОМФОРТНОСТЬ ЖИЗНЕДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ АРКТИЧЕСКОЙ ЗОНЫ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

The present-day global warming and the rise of climate extremes are the most pronounced in the Arctic zone of theRussian Federation, and this circumstance is very important for the population of these regions. According to the zoning of theterritoryofRussiapresenting the natural conditions of the human’s life, the greater part of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federationis characterized by absolutely unfavorable and very unfavorable conditions. In this connection, estimation of the present-day climate conditions and prediction of future situation is very important for the population in many regions ofRussia, and particularly in the Arctic zone. The Nature conditions of human life in the second half of the 20th century and changes of them in the 21st one were analyzed in this work. This made possible to correct the map “Zoning of the territory of theRussian Federationon natural conditions of the human’s life" and to estimate possible changes of climate conditions by the middle of the 21st century. The results of numerical experiments performed with three models presented at the fifth phase of the coupled models comparison Project (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, SMIR5) were used in the work. The models are as follows: one of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS (INMCM4); the second Meteorological Office of theHadleyCenter(HadGEM2-ES), and the third  – Max-Plank Meteorological Institute (MPI-ESM-LR). The most changeable climatic factors (heat, cold, and wind) were investigated. The regions of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federation, where warming is the most evident, have been established, and changes of areas with different levels of climatic discomfort during periods of current and expected climate warming have been estimated. The warming of 1991–2010 in the Western and Eastern parts of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federationresulted in that area with absolutely unfavorable conditions significantly decreased. The scale of the area reduction was found to be comparable to the change of discomfort under the «soft» anthropogenic scenario for the period 2046–2055.Продолжающееся глобальное потепление сильнее всего выражено в Арктической зоне. Бóльшая часть Арктической зоны Российской Федерации характеризуется абсолютно неблагоприятными и очень неблагоприятными условиями жизнедеятельности населения. в результате потепления в западной и восточной частях этой зоны значительно сократилась площадь с абсолютно неблагоприятными условиями. Масштаб такого сокращения сравним с изменением дискомфортности при «мягком» антропогенном сценарии для периода 2046–2055 гг

Влияние притока тёплых атлантических вод на аномалии климата в атлантическом секторе Арктики

Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012) and «cold» ocean (1960–1970) were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice), surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.Исследованы значимые климатические изменения океанических и атмосферных переменных в атлантическом секторе Арктике, определяемые аномалиями температуры поверхности океана зимой. Определены периоды «тёплого» (2002–2012 гг.) и «холодного» (1960–70‑е годы) океана.Положительная аномалия температуры поверхности океана вызывает увеличение площади свободной ото льда воды и сокращение площади сплошных льдов. В результате такого изменения свойств подстилающей поверхности (открытая вода и лёд) растёт приземная температура воздуха и, как следствие, понижается давление в центральной области заданного сектора Арктики

Климатические вариации арктического фронта и ледовитости Баренцева моря зимой

Climatologic Arctic front location at Atlantic-European section and changes in Barents sea ice coverage during periods of Arctic warming (1981–2010) and cooling (1948–1980) are studied 7by reanalysis data (UEA CRU and NCEP/NCAR). As we demonstrate, Arctic front structure is more complex than was considered before. Arctic front consists of two branches, main one over Atlantic ocean, Norwegian and Barents seas and secondary one over Northern Europe. Main front divides arctic and temperate air masses over Atlantics as well as arctic and subarctic (transformed temperate masses over Northern Europe) masses over Arctic seas. Secondary (subarctic) branch separates subarctic air masses from continental temperate masses. Main and secondary Arctic front branches remain quasi-stationary during observed periods. On climatic scale, Arctic front is conservative with respect to cyclonic activity change during periods of warming and cooling in Arctic. Cyclonic activity, which is determined by cyclone centres repeatability, increased synchronously in Arctic and Subarctic from cooling period (1948–1980) to actual warming. Evidences to meet hypothesis on positive feedback between warm Atlantic water masses inflow and Barents sea wintertime ice coverage. This hypothesis became particularly important in relation with model reproduction of turbulent warm heavy stream that cause convection and cyclonic turbulence in lower troposphere. In feedback forming, cyclone centres localization matters; their repeatability is calculated for climatic episodes 1991–2007 (small ice coverage) and 1979–1990 (big ice coverage) in Barents sea’s four sections. During climatic episode 1991–2007 cyclone centres repeatability increased mostly in western sections, while in eastern sections repeatability decreased. At the same time, cyclone localization increase mostly in north-west section, comparing with south-western one. Cyclone centres localization shift north cause ice coverage decrease there.По данным реанализа (UEA CRU и NCEP/NCAR) исследованы размещение климатического арктического фронта в Атлантико-Европейском секторе и изменение ледовитости Баренцева моря зимой в периоды современного потепления (1981–2010 гг.) и похолодания (1948–1980 гг.) Арктики. Установлено, что арктический фронт имеет двойственную структуру и состоит из основного (над морями Северной Атлантики) и вторичного (в северной части континента). В рассмотренные периоды похолодания и потепления Арктики размещение основной и вторичной ветвей этого фронта квазистационарно. Рост локализации центров циклонов в западных секторах Баренцева моря в 1991–2007 гг. подтверждает модельные оценки увеличения возникновения циклонических возмущений в атмосфере над свободной ото льда поверхностью Баренцева моря, что вызывает положительную обратную связь и способствует уменьшению площади ледяного покрова

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE HUMAN LIFE CONDITIONS IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The present-day global warming and the rise of climate extremes are the most pronounced in the Arctic zone of theRussian Federation, and this circumstance is very important for the population of these regions. According to the zoning of theterritoryofRussiapresenting the natural conditions of the human’s life, the greater part of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federationis characterized by absolutely unfavorable and very unfavorable conditions. In this connection, estimation of the present-day climate conditions and prediction of future situation is very important for the population in many regions ofRussia, and particularly in the Arctic zone. The Nature conditions of human life in the second half of the 20th century and changes of them in the 21st one were analyzed in this work. This made possible to correct the map “Zoning of the territory of theRussian Federationon natural conditions of the human’s life" and to estimate possible changes of climate conditions by the middle of the 21st century. The results of numerical experiments performed with three models presented at the fifth phase of the coupled models comparison Project (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, SMIR5) were used in the work. The models are as follows: one of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS (INMCM4); the second Meteorological Office of theHadleyCenter(HadGEM2-ES), and the third  – Max-Plank Meteorological Institute (MPI-ESM-LR). The most changeable climatic factors (heat, cold, and wind) were investigated. The regions of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federation, where warming is the most evident, have been established, and changes of areas with different levels of climatic discomfort during periods of current and expected climate warming have been estimated. The warming of 1991–2010 in the Western and Eastern parts of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federationresulted in that area with absolutely unfavorable conditions significantly decreased. The scale of the area reduction was found to be comparable to the change of discomfort under the «soft» anthropogenic scenario for the period 2046–2055

Climatic variations of the Arctic front and the Barents sea ice cover in winter time

Climatologic Arctic front location at Atlantic-European section and changes in Barents sea ice coverage during periods of Arctic warming (1981–2010) and cooling (1948–1980) are studied 7by reanalysis data (UEA CRU and NCEP/NCAR). As we demonstrate, Arctic front structure is more complex than was considered before. Arctic front consists of two branches, main one over Atlantic ocean, Norwegian and Barents seas and secondary one over Northern Europe. Main front divides arctic and temperate air masses over Atlantics as well as arctic and subarctic (transformed temperate masses over Northern Europe) masses over Arctic seas. Secondary (subarctic) branch separates subarctic air masses from continental temperate masses. Main and secondary Arctic front branches remain quasi-stationary during observed periods. On climatic scale, Arctic front is conservative with respect to cyclonic activity change during periods of warming and cooling in Arctic. Cyclonic activity, which is determined by cyclone centres repeatability, increased synchronously in Arctic and Subarctic from cooling period (1948–1980) to actual warming. Evidences to meet hypothesis on positive feedback between warm Atlantic water masses inflow and Barents sea wintertime ice coverage. This hypothesis became particularly important in relation with model reproduction of turbulent warm heavy stream that cause convection and cyclonic turbulence in lower troposphere. In feedback forming, cyclone centres localization matters; their repeatability is calculated for climatic episodes 1991–2007 (small ice coverage) and 1979–1990 (big ice coverage) in Barents sea’s four sections. During climatic episode 1991–2007 cyclone centres repeatability increased mostly in western sections, while in eastern sections repeatability decreased. At the same time, cyclone localization increase mostly in north-west section, comparing with south-western one. Cyclone centres localization shift north cause ice coverage decrease there

Winter positions of Arctic front during periods of cooling and warming

Winter positions of the Arctic front (AF) during the known periods of the climate cooling (1949–1980) and warming (1981–2012) were analyzed within the sector 10° W – 60° E. The AF positios were determined by the following indicators: 1) a surface pressure; 2) horizontal wind divergence; 3) geostrophic vortex; 4) geostrophic heat advection. The main extrema of these four dynamic characteristics coincide and fall on the latitude 72.5° N. This corresponds to the average position of the AF for a given resolution and confirms correctness of our choice of these characteristics as the AF indicators. Relative differences between mean profiles of all values of the above warm and cold periods were calculated using method of normalization of each value for the corresponding latitude by the standard deviation for the entire period (1949–2012). To study variability of the AF position we used mean yearly winter profiles of the variables under investigation together with the statistical analysis of positions of the extrema within the latitude degrees. For pressure and geostrophic advection positions of the absolute minima were determined while for geostrophic vortex and divergence – positions of the absolute maxima. The data show that according to different criteria the AF average positions for the period 1949–2012 lie within the zone 72.4–73.4 N. The interannual variability of the AF positions lies within the 1–2 degrees of latitude and corresponds to the range of the air temperature variability above the zone of maximal changes in the sea ice area. According to the standard deviation values of the divergence and the geostrophic vortex are the most stable in region of the AF passage. Comparison of differences of the studied characteristics between the warm and cold periods shows that the changes in the AF positions are not statistically significant (P(t) < 91% t‑criterion) unlike the changes in positions of isolines which characterize the warming (P(t) = 100%). Thus, despite significant changes in properties of the surface and the temperature regime to the north of 72.5 N (the warming), according to all the criteria the AF climatic position remains quasi‑stationary for 32‑year periods of averaging