Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions

The report looks at the impact of "good practice"emission reduction policies in nine different areas globally and across six countries: China, Brazil, India, the US, Russia and Japan. These include renewable energy, a variety of energy efficiency standards (buildings, car fuel efficiecy, appliances and lighting, industry), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC.s), emissions from fossil fuel production, electric cars and forestry. The authors looked at the most ambitious "good practice" policies around the world that are being implemented now, and calculated the difference these would make if everybody were to apply them. If all governments follow those governments that currently adopt the best climate policies in just nin different areas, they could reduce emissions close to the levels needed to stay on track to hold global warming below 2 degrees C. The implementation of good practice policies is projected to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions at 49-50 GtCO2e by 2020, and decrease to 44- 47 GtCO2e by 2030- close to the 2 degrees C emissions range (30-44 GtCO2e) by 2030. Direct replication of good practice policies is projected to halt emissions growth in most regions sinificantly before 2030. In contrast, current policies are expected to see emissions to increase to around 54 GtCO2e by 2020 and 59-60 GtCO2e by 2030

Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems

The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m2 leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO2eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m2 forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity

Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Neutrality

This report gives an overview of the literature on greenhouse gas emissions neutrality, as targeted in the Paris Agreement to achieve a ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century’. It presents additional scenario analysis, focusing on the global and regional decarbonisation implications of phasing out greenhouse gas emissions, as seen in 2 °C scenarios. It further explores the implications of these scenarios for changes in land use

Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 degrees C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030

Thyroid Dysfunction and Anemia: A Prospective Cohort Study and a Systematic Review.

Even though the association between thyroid dysfunction and anemia is commonly described, it is not known whether it is clinically relevant. This study set out to quantify the association of thyroid dysfunction on hemoglobin (Hb) concentration and risk of anemia. A systematic review (MEDLINE and EMBASE, from inception until May 15, 2017) was conducted to interpret the findings in context. Participants from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort with available baseline thyrotropin (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4), and Hb were included. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH 0.45-4.49 mIU/L (reference category), hypothyroidism as TSH ≥4.50 mIU/L (subclinical [SHypo] with normal fT4 or overt [OHypo] with low fT4), and hyperthyroidism as TSH ≤0.44 mIU/L (subclinical [SHyper] with normal fT4 or overt [OHyper] with elevated fT4). Anemia was defined as Hb <12 g/dL in women and Hb <13 g/dL in men. In the cross-sectional analyses, multiple linear regression was used to compare Hb across TSH categories. In the prospective analysis, participants with OHypo/OHyper at baseline were excluded, as it was assumed that they were treated for overt thyroid disease. A covariance model was used to determine change in Hb concentration from baseline to last follow-up, and multivariable Cox regression was used to analyze anemia risk. In the cross-sectional population (n = 12,337), the adjusted Hb was 0.22 g/dL lower [confidence interval (CI) 0.07-0.38] in OHypo compared to euthyroids, and 0.08 g/dL lower [CI -0.23 to 0.38] in OHyper. In the prospective analysis, 460/7031 participants developed anemia over a median follow-up of 4.7 years. The adjusted mean Hb change over time was -0.04 g/dL in SHypo [CI -0.14 to 0.06] and 0.05 g/dL in SHyper [CI -0.10 to 0.20]. The adjusted hazard ratio for anemia was 0.99 [CI 0.67-1.48] in SHypo, and 0.52 [CI 0.23-1.16] in SHyper. The systematic review returned no other prospective studies on this association, but cross-sectional and case-control studies showed comparable results. In this first prospective population-based cohort, subclinical thyroid dysfunction was not associated with a change in Hb concentration during follow-up and was not an independent risk factor for developing anemia; variations in Hb concentration in patients with overt thyroid dysfunction were not clinically relevant

Thyroid dysfunction and anaemia in a large population-based study.

OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND: Anaemia and thyroid dysfunction are common and often co-occur. Current guidelines recommend the assessment of thyroid function in the work-up of anaemia, although evidence on this association is scarce. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the 'European Prospective Investigation of Cancer' (EPIC)-Norfolk population-based cohort, we aimed to examine the prevalence and type of anaemia (defined as haemoglobin <13 g/dl for men and <12 g/dl for women) according to different thyroid function groups. RESULTS: The mean age of the 8791 participants was 59·4 (SD 9·1) years and 55·2% were women. Thyroid dysfunction was present in 437 (5·0%) and anaemia in 517 (5·9%) participants. After excluding 121 participants with three most common causes of anaemia (chronic kidney disease, inflammation, iron deficiency), anaemia was found in 4·7% of euthyroid participants. Compared with the euthyroid group, the prevalence of anaemia was significantly higher in overt hyperthyroidism (14·6%, P < 0·01), higher with borderline significance in overt hypothyroidism (7·7%, P = 0·05) and not increased in subclinical thyroid dysfunction (5·0% in subclinical hypothyroidism, 3·3% in subclinical hyperthyroidism). Anaemia associated with thyroid dysfunction was mainly normocytic (94·0%), and rarely macrocytic (6·0%). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of anaemia was higher in overt hyperthyroidism, but not increased in subclinical thyroid dysfunction. Systematic measurement of thyroid-stimulating hormone in anaemic patients is likely to be useful only after excluding common causes of anaemia