Towards a Macroprudential Surveillance and Remedial Policy Formulation System for Monitoring Financial Crisis

Several developing economies witnessed a large number of systemic financial and currency crises since the 1980s which resulted in severe economic, social, and political problems. The devastating impact of the 1982 and 1994-95 Mexican crises, the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis and the ongoing financial crisis of 2008-2009 suggest that maintaining financial sector stability through reduction of vulnerability is highly crucial. The world is now witnessing an unprecedented systemic financial crisis originated from USA in September 2008 together with a deep worldwide economic recession, particularly in developed countries of Europe and North America. This calls for devising and using on a regular basis an appropriate and effective monitoring and policy formulation system for detecting and addressing vulnerabilities leading to crisis. This paper proposes a macroprudential/financial soundness monitoring, analysis and remedial policy formulation system that can be used by most developing countries with or without crisis experience as well as developed countries with limited data. It also discusses a process for identifying, and compiling a set of leading macroprudential indicators/financial soundness indicators. An empirical illustration using Philippines data is presented.economic and financial vulnerability, macroprudential indicators and financial soundness indicators analysis, macroprudential surveillance and policy, developing countries, financial sector, currency and financial crises, Early Warning Models, Stress Test

Understanding the Latest Wave and Future Shape of Regional Trade and Cooperation Agreements in Asia

Asia accounts for more than 30% of world GDP and contributes half of the global growth in recent years. Despite high growth rates, Asia is still facing considerable socio-economic challenges. If Asia is to reemerge as a major power in the global economy and in order for the region to successfully address its own challenges and issues there is a need to make the region’s economies more integrated regionally and internationally. Following the recent global trend, Asia witnessed a wave of subregional and bilateral trade agreements. This paper analyzes the recent trends and patterns and nature of regional trade and cooperation agreements (RTCAs) in Asia and associated problems and prospects. It also attempts to understand the latest wave and the future shape of RTCAs and examines if these RTCAs provide the basis for a new Asia-wide cooperation or for the emergence of new regional trade in blocs of several subregional groupings.Asia, regional economic cooperation and integration, trade, bilateral and regional trade and cooperation agreements, ASEAN

Toward a Sustainable Transport Development in Asia and the Pacific

Despite remarkable growth during the last decade, Asia and the Pacific still faces extensive basic infrastructure needs. Furthermore, to cope up with the reduced export demand from advanced economies arising out of the ongoing financial crisis, the region needs to enhance its connectivity through developing transport infrastructure at the national and regional level to rebalance its growth towards regional demand through enhancing intraregional trade. However, building massive transport infrastructure will have profound implications on environment and climate change at the national, regional and global levels as well as on scarce energy resources. This paper presents the needs and benefits of transport connectivity and financing requirement of Asian economies during 2010-2020; and analyzes the major challenges and prospects in developing sustainable transport connectivity. Finally, the paper provides policy recommendations on what the region can do to meet these challenges.sustainable transport, infrastructure, connectivity, financing infrastructure, environment and climate change, Asia and the Pacific

Promotion of Trade and Investments between China and India: The Case of Southwest China and East and Northeast India

Open regionalism and integration between the world’s two largest developing countries - the People’s Republic of China (China) and India - in trade, investments and infrastructure development can foster outward-oriented development and economic and social benefits that could result in poverty reduction. In view of the increasing trend toward regional integration, particularly the expanded European Union and North American integration, the opportunity costs of not moving toward greater economic integration between China and India involving common neighbouring countries could be increasing. This paper discusses the above subject in the context of possible areas of China - India economic cooperation and integration in the Eastern and Northeastern region of India and Southwestern provinces of China, including neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Nepal.India, China, economic cooperation and integration, trade, investment and infrastructure development

Benefits and challenges of integrating South and Southeast Asia

In recent decades, Southeast Asian economies have prospered through an outward-oriented strategy, through intra-regional integration under the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) initiative and through participating in the East Asian production networks. In the 1970-80´s, South Asia stagnated due to its inward-oriented growth strategy and lack of infrastructure connectivity-resulting in low trade integration and regional connectivity within the region and with Southeast and East Asia. However, since 1991, South Asia, particularly India has adopted a Look East policy and opened its market raising huge potential for economic integration between South and Southeast Asia leading to peace, prosperity and stability of these two regions. This paper examines the prospects and challenges of enhancing trade, investment, production and infrastructure cooperation and integration between these two regions for catalyzing their socio-economic transformation. It also examines the trends, achievement drivers, and prospects of economic growth and developments of these regions until 2030. The paper also provides policy recommendations for enhancing regional cooperation and integration. In view of global financial crisis of 2008 and ongoing European debt crisis, advance economies that are principal export markets of South and Southeast Asia economies may witness slow growth and even in recession in short term. Further integration of these two regions will generate increased intraregional trade and reduce their dependence of advanced economies

Towards a macroprudential surveillance and remedial policy formulation system for monitoring financial crisis

Several developing economies witnessed a large number of systemic financial and currency crises since the 1980s which resulted in severe economic, social, and political problems. The devastating impact of the 1982 and 1994-95 Mexican crises, the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis and the ongoing financial crisis of 2008-2009 suggest that maintaining financial sector stability through reduction of vulnerability is highly crucial. The world is now witnessing an unprecedented systemic financial crisis originated from USA in September 2008 together with a deep worldwide economic recession, particularly in developed countries of Europe and North America. This calls for devising and using on a regular basis an appropriate and effective monitoring and policy formulation system for detecting and addressing vulnerabilities leading to crisis. This paper proposes a macroprudential/financial soundness monitoring, analysis and remedial policy formulation system that can be used by most developing countries with or without crisis experience as well as developed countries with limited data. It also discusses a process for identifying, and compiling a set of leading macroprudential indicators/financial soundness indicators. An empirical illustration using Philippines data is presented

Towards a Macro-Prudential Leading Indicators Framework for Monitoring Financial Vulnerability

The 1997 Asian financial crisis has revealed the limitations of the current state of monetary and financial monitoring system in most Asian countries in comprehensively addressing financial and monetary problems and issues. This paper attempts to propose a macro-prudential indicators (MPI) framework for monitoring vulnerability of financial markets. A literature survey on studies leading indicators has been presented. An illustrative and simple framework for analysis and interpretation of core set of 22 leading indicators (that were identified from 67 commonly agreed Asian Development Bank Indicators for selected Asia-Pacific countries, namely Fiji, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam, and Taiwan, Province of China ) has been presented using annual time-series data for the afore-mentioned countries. A correlation and volatility analysis of Thailand’s annual and quarterly data (1994-2002) has also been performed in order to propose a simple methodology for constructing benchmarks for early warning signals and for developing a composite indicators. This above analysis carried out in this paper highlights the usefulness of MPIs as a tool for monitoring financial vulnerability.

Estimating Demand for Infrastructure in Energy, Transport, Telecommunications, Water and Sanitation in Asia and the Pacific: 2010-2020

Infrastructure plays a key role in promoting and sustaining rapid economic growth. Properly designed infrastructure can also make growth more inclusive by sharing its benefits with poorer groups and communities, especially by connecting remote areas and small and landlocked countries to major business centers. Even if the Asia-Pacific region has witnessed progress in infrastructure development, the growth of infrastructure lags behind its economic growth, and also behind international standards of infrastructure quantity and quality. Inadequate infrastructure can hamper the potential economic growth of Asian countries, weaken their international competitiveness, and adversely affect their poverty reduction efforts. The circumstances and effects of the recent economic and financial crisis provide a number of reasons to further develop national and regional infrastructure in Asia. Among these reasons is that regional infrastructure enhances competitiveness and productivity, which could help in economic recovery and in sustaining growth in the medium to long-term. Regional infrastructure also helps increase standard of living and reduce poverty by connecting isolated places and people with major economic centers and markets, narrowing the development gap among Asian economies. This paper estimates the need for infrastructure investment, including energy, transport, telecommunications, water, and sanitation during 2010-2020, in order to meet growing demands for services and facilitate further rapid growth in the region. By using "top-down" and "bottom-up" approaches, this paper provides a comprehensive estimate of Asia's need for infrastructure services. The estimates show that developing countries in Asia require financing of US$776 billion per year for national (US$747 billion) and regional (US$29 billion) infrastructure during 2010-2020 to meet growing demand.asia-pacific infrastructure; regional infrastructure; infrastructure development

Can there be a wave-like association between economic growth and inequality? Theory and lessons for East Asia from the Middle East

High income growth in many countries in East Asia and the Middle East has been accompanied by increasing income inequality and widening gaps between rich and poor, and urban and rural. It is therefore it is important to examine the interrelationships between inequality and economic growth. This paper develops a simple model to establish that the change in income growth rate is a non-linear function of the income growth if policy makers try to influence economic growth. As a result, inequality and growth bear a non-linear relationship: for low values of inequality, economic growth rate is an inverted U-shaped \function of inequality. This function becomes U-shaped for values of inequality beyond a critical value of inequality. As a result, the relationship between growth and inequality can take the form of a wave. This simple theoretical model is a sufficient case to explain why previous empirical studies might have failed to reach a consensus between economic growth and inequality. The paper estimates the model empirically by using a set of panel data for ten Middle Eastern countries. The empirical analysis finds statistical support for a possible wave like relationship between growth and inequality, which can bear ominous messages for using equitable growth in fighting poverty. Rapid growing developing economies need to adopt appropriate policies for achieving an optimal mix of inequality and growth. Promoting inclusive growth together with good governance is crucial to ensure more equity and social stability

Role of production networks in sustaining and rebalancing Asia's growth

In last few decades, Asian production networks have contributed significantly toward the rapid trade expansion and economic growth in East Asia. Developed Asia produces technology-intensive intermediate goods and capital goods and ships them to the People Republic of China (PRC) and ASEAN for assembly by lower-skilled workers. The finished products are then exported to the US, Japan, Europe, and other countries. In view of ongoing global financial crisis and European debt crisis, the ability of the rest of the world to absorb Asia's exports has decreased. Export production in some Asian countries has also been subsidized by artificially low prices for labor, land, and energy, and by lax enforcement of environmental regulations. Asian economies should thus rebalance away from relying too much on exporting subsidized goods to developed economies. On the supply side, the best way to rebalance growth is to increase productivity in order to raise wage rates and living standards. This can be done by leveraging production networks to graduate to higher value-added, knowledge-intensive activities. On the demand side, producers in the region should turn to Asian consumers as an engine of growth. This can be facilitated by improving connectivity through increased investment in connecting infrastructure such as transport and telecommunications; and by implementing a region-wide FTA. This paper addresses these issues by providing an analytic description of production networks in Asia. It then discusses how developing Asian countries could leverage production networks to facilitate technology transfer to domestic firms and how a regional FTA could bring Asian producers and consumers together. Finally, it considers how infrastructure investment in large and connecting projects could help to rebalance and sustain growth in the region through increased connectivity and reducing trade costs