Pathocenosis: A Holistic Approach to Disease Ecology

The History of medicine describes the emergence and recognition of infectious diseases, and human attempts to stem them. It also throws light on the role of changing environmental conditions on disease emergence/re-emergence, establishment and, sometimes, disappearance. However, the dynamics of infectious diseases is also influenced by the relationships between the community of interacting infectious agents present at a given time in a given territory, a concept that Mirko Grmek, an historian of medicine, conceptualized with the word “pathocenosis”. The spatial and temporal evolution of diseases, when observed at the appropriate scales, illustrates how a change in the pathocenosis, whether of “natural” or anthropic origin, can lead to the emergence and spread of diseases

Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

BACKGROUND:In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION:Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease

A Graphical and Computational Modelling Platform for Biological Pathways

A major endeavor of systems biology is the construction of graphical and computational models of biological pathways as a means to better understand their structure and function. Here, we present a protocol for a biologist-friendly graphical modeling scheme that facilitates the construction of detailed network diagrams, summarizing the components of a biological pathway (such as proteins and biochemicals) and illustrating how they interact. These diagrams can then be used to simulate activity flow through a pathway, thereby modeling its dynamic behavior. The protocol is divided into four sections: (i) assembly of network diagrams using the modified Edinburgh Pathway Notation (mEPN) scheme and yEd network editing software with pathway information obtained from published literature and databases of molecular interaction data; (ii) parameterization of the pathway model within yEd through the placement of 'tokens' on the basis of the known or imputed amount or activity of a component; (iii) model testing through visualization and quantitative analysis of the movement of tokens through the pathway, using the network analysis tool Graphia Professional and (iv) optimization of model parameterization and experimentation. This is the first modeling approach that combines a sophisticated notation scheme for depicting biological events at the molecular level with a Petri net–based flow simulation algorithm and a powerful visualization engine with which to observe the dynamics of the system being modeled. Unlike many mathematical approaches to modeling pathways, it does not require the construction of a series of equations or rate constants for model parameterization. Depending on a model's complexity and the availability of information, its construction can take days to months, and, with refinement, possibly years. However, once assembled and parameterized, a simulation run, even on a large model, typically takes only seconds. Models constructed using this approach provide a means of knowledge management, information exchange and, through the computation simulation of their dynamic activity, generation and testing of hypotheses, as well as prediction of a system's behavior when perturbed