Stabilization programs and policy credibility: Peru in the 1990s

This paper uses a rational expectations macroeconomic model in which economic agents formulate the probability about the sustainability of the economic policy—that is, policy credibility—using current and lagged values of government expenditures and lagged values of the inflation rate. The estimation of the model is based on Hamilton’s switching regime procedure. The contribution of this paper is the empirical estimation of the credibility of the stabilization program implemented in Peru in August 1990. The results of the estimation show that there are two different regimes in the government expenditure process. According to the economic agents’ inferences, the stabilization program in Peru is not credible. This lack of credibility in the economic policy of the government authority explains the presence of hysteresis in currency substitution between August 1990 and June 1995. The estimation involves an expected inflation rate that includes the credibility of the economic policy in its formulation.

Can capital-skill complementarity explain the rising skill premium in developing countries? evidence from Peru

The factors behind the increase in the relative wages of skilled workers in developing countries are still not well understood. The authors use data from Peru to analyze the determinants of within-industry share of skilled workers. They use a translog cost function for gross output and are therefore able to incorporate the effects of materials, both domestic and imported, in addition to capital. The authors find that capital accumulation can explain a large fraction of the increase in the wage bill share and relative wages of skilled labor. This finding is contrary to the commonly held view that unobservable technological change is responsible for the rising skill premium in both developing and developed economies. A test for separability indicates that a gross output cost function is the appropriate one to use, and therefore share equations based on value-added cost functions could be misspecified.

The effect of immigration on output mix, capital, and productivity

The growing influx of immigrants into the United States has prompted concerns about potential negative effects on native workers, especially the less skilled. Such concerns have not been borne out by many studies of the effect of immigration on wages. However, the typical theoretical negative effect of immigration flows on wages may be offset by changes in other aspects of the economy, including output mix, productivity, and capital. ; This article examines the relationship between immigration and three factors-output mix, labor productivity, and capital-in the skilled and unskilled sectors in the U.S. manufacturing sector at the state level. The authors develop a simple two-sector model of the effect of immigration on these three factors. The authors then test the model's predictions using data from the 1982 and 1992 Census of Manufactures and other sources. ; The results indicate that immigration-induced changes in labor supply caused labor productivity in both the low- and high-skilled sectors to increase more slowly in states that attracted a larger share of immigrants during the 1980s than in other states. This slower growth may result from the gradual assimilation process many immigrants undergo as they acquire language skills and familiarity with U.S. institutions, the authors believe, and they call for further study of immigration's longer-term effects on productivity.Emigration and immigration ; Productivity ; Labor supply ; Labor productivity

Trade and the skill premium in developing countries: the role of intermediate goods and some evidence from Peru

The rise in income inequality in developing countries after trade liberalization has been a puzzle for trade theory, which predicts the opposite effect. The authors present a model with imported intermediate goods in which the relative wages of skilled labor can rise due to higher imports of inputs or due to skill-biased technological change. The evidence from Peru in the post-liberalization phase in the early 1990s supports the skilled-biased technological change hypothesis. The authors find that most of the decrease in the blue-collar wage share in the manufacturing industries can be explained by the increase in machinery imports that followed liberalization, suggesting that the skilled-biased technology is embodied in imported machinery.Peru ; Economic development ; Latin America ; Trade

The labor market experience and impact of undocumented workers

Using administrative data from the state of Georgia, the authors find that average wages among documented workers are lower in industries that employ undocumented workers and that a greater share of undocumented workers in those industries further lowers wages. In addition, undocumented workers have significantly lower labor supply elasticity, likely as a result of their limited employment and grievance opportunities. Furthermore, the inflow of undocumented workers does more to displace earlier hired undocumented workers than it does to displace documented workers.Immigrants

Employer monopsony power in the labor market for undocumented workers

Using matched employer-employee data from the state of Georgia, this paper investigates the potential for employer monopsony power in the labor market for undocumented workers. We find that the labor supply elasticity of undocumented workers is about 13 percent lower than that estimated for documented workers, suggesting that at least some of the observed wage gap between documented and undocumented workers can be explained by firms' exploiting their monopsony power. There is also evidence of some displacement, with the hiring of undocumented workers being associated with a small amount of documented worker separation.Labor market

New financing trends in Latin America : an overview of selected issues and policy challenges

This article summarizes a 2007 conference that explored the nature and implications of major transformations in Latin American financial markets, such as the shift from cross-border to domestic financing and the development of domestic bond markets.Finance ; Economic policy ; Latin America

Reform fatigue: symptoms, reasons, and implications

Following a period of ambitious promarket reforms, Latin American policymakers and the public at large have entered a period of “reform fatigue.” Initial enthusiasm for policies such as liberalized markets and a level field for investors has given way more recently to the view that ambitious promarket reforms are to blame for the region’s economic crises. The process of reform has stalled in some countries, and a few have suffered serious setbacks. ; To help explore the future of reform, this article aims to document and explain the symptoms of fatigue among the public, policymakers, and opinion leaders. The authors explore the economic, social, political, and psychological reasons for the fatigue. They review numerous studies that have identified various explanatory factors, including reforms’ modest economic outcomes, the failure of reforms to improve social conditions, a leftward shift of public opinion and political coalitions, and perception biases among citizens. ; The authors find that economic reasons are the primary explanation for the increasing rejection of reforms. Disillusionment with reforms, despite reforms’ overall benefits, seems to stem from people’s inability to isolate short-term macroeconomic situations from reforms’ permanent effects. ; While political reasons cannot account for reform fatigue, the authors believe that politics will play a decisive role in the future of reform. They conclude that, especially in countries where promarket reforms are well advanced, eventual economic recoveries will result in further institutional and social policy reforms.Economic stabilization