The effect of early and late pharmacological correction with GABA derivatives of psychoemotional state of offspring of rats with experimental preeclampsia

Experimental preeclampsia has a negative effect on the psychoemotional state of offspring. Early and late pharmacological correction with derivatives of GABA, such as succicard, salifen and phenibut, reduced anxiety, manifestations of obsessive-compulsive disorder, and depression in offspring of the rats with EP pregnanc

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТЬ ИННОВАЦИОННЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ С ВЕНЧУРНЫМ ФИНАНСИРОВАНИЕМ

The absence of profi tability is typical for innovative projects on the early stages of its implementation and high risk because of high level of uncertainty of the estimates of forecasted cash fl ows. In this situation, the use of standard methods for economic effi ciency analysis of the projects does not allow to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the advisability of investing, as well as to quantify the accuracy of the dynamics of forecasted indicators. All of this requires the development of the theory and methods for analysis of economic efficiency of innovations and determines the high level of fundamentality of the issue. The application of real options method and fuzzy sets theory is, in our opinion, the directions of the improvement of these methods.The paper deals with the problems of usage of new methods for evaluation of economic efficiency of innovative projects with venture financing in the industry sector. The opportunities of application the real options method to evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative projects with venture financing using fuzzy sets are investigated. Short review of works of foreign and Russian researchers is given.The new methodological approach to the evaluation of the economic effectiveness of innovative projects with venture financing based on the real options method using modified Geske’s formula with fuzzy sets analysis is proposed. The methodological approach will enable to evaluate quantitatively the fact of staged investment of the project and the possibility to stop financing in the case of receiving negative information about its implementation. In other words it will enable to take into account and quantitatively evaluate the flexibility in making managerial decisions.In general, synthesis of the probability methods and fuzzy sets in the analysis of venture financing of innovative projects based on the real options method extends the venture capital investor’s tools used to validate the investment decisions. Also the proposed approach allows to get a more accurate assessment of the effectiveness of investment projects with high degree of uncertainty in comparison with traditional methods. Для инновационных проектов характерны отсутствие прибыльности на первых этапах их реализации и большой риск, связанный с высокой неопределенностью оценки генерируемых ими прогнозируемых денежных потоков. В этой ситуации использование стандартных методов анализа экономической эффективности проектов не позволяет получить комплексную оценку целесообразности осуществления инвестиций, а также количественно оценить достоверность динамики прогнозируемых показателей. Все это требует развития теории и методов анализа экономической эффективности инноваций и определяет высокий уровень фундаментальности проблематики. Применение метода реальных опционов, а также аппарата нечетких множеств является, по нашему мнению, направлением совершенствования названных методов.В статье рассматриваются вопросы применения новых методов оценки экономической эффективности инновационных проектов с венчурным финансированием в промышленности, а именно: исследуются возможности приложения концепции реальных опционов к оценке эффективности инновационных проектов с венчурным финансированием с использованием аппарата нечетких множеств. Дается краткий обзор работ зарубежных и российских ученых по исследуемой проблематике.Описывается новая методика оценки экономической эффективности инновационных проектов с венчурным финансированием на основе метода реальных опционов с использованием модифицированной формулы Геске и включением нечетко-множественного анализа. Методика позволит количественно оценить факт поэтапной реализации проекта и возможность прекращения финансирования при получении негативной информации о его реализации, т.е. учесть и количественно оценить управленческую гибкость при принятии решений о дальнейшей реализации проекта.В целом синтез теоретико-вероятностных и нечетко-множественных методов в анализе венчурного финансирования инновационных проектов на основе метода реальных опционов расширяет инструментарий венчурного инвестора, используемый для обоснования решений по инвестированию проектов, а также позволяет получить более точную оценку эффективности проектов с высокой степенью неопределенности по сравнению с традиционными подходами.

THE CONCEPT OF REAL OPTIONS AS AN INNOVATIVE METHOD OF ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN INDUSTRY

The paper deals with problems of application of the concept of real options as the new innovative method of assessing the economic effectiveness of investment projects in industry sector. Critical review of works of foreign and Russian researchers is given. The author's approach to assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects in the industry sector with the introduction of the real options method is proposed and tested. The author's step-by-step algorithm of evaluation is described. Proposed methodology is tested on real innovative project, implemented in the Russian Federation and financed by the venture capital fund. The paper demonstrates that the value of the compound call option increases the overall value of the project due to the factor of staged investment and a possibility to stop financing, that is, due to a higher flexibility in making managerial decisions. The efficiency of using the real options method when applied to the evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative projects by a venture capital investor is shown. In general, the use of the real options method extends the tools used by the venture capital investor in making decisions on project investments

THE METHODOLOGY OF ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS WITH VENTURE FINANCING BASED ON REAL OPTIONS METHOD WITH FUZZY SETS ANALYSIS

The absence of profi tability is typical for innovative projects on the early stages of its implementation and high risk because of high level of uncertainty of the estimates of forecasted cash fl ows. In this situation, the use of standard methods for economic effi ciency analysis of the projects does not allow to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the advisability of investing, as well as to quantify the accuracy of the dynamics of forecasted indicators. All of this requires the development of the theory and methods for analysis of economic efficiency of innovations and determines the high level of fundamentality of the issue. The application of real options method and fuzzy sets theory is, in our opinion, the directions of the improvement of these methods.The paper deals with the problems of usage of new methods for evaluation of economic efficiency of innovative projects with venture financing in the industry sector. The opportunities of application the real options method to evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative projects with venture financing using fuzzy sets are investigated. Short review of works of foreign and Russian researchers is given.The new methodological approach to the evaluation of the economic effectiveness of innovative projects with venture financing based on the real options method using modified Geske’s formula with fuzzy sets analysis is proposed. The methodological approach will enable to evaluate quantitatively the fact of staged investment of the project and the possibility to stop financing in the case of receiving negative information about its implementation. In other words it will enable to take into account and quantitatively evaluate the flexibility in making managerial decisions.In general, synthesis of the probability methods and fuzzy sets in the analysis of venture financing of innovative projects based on the real options method extends the venture capital investor’s tools used to validate the investment decisions. Also the proposed approach allows to get a more accurate assessment of the effectiveness of investment projects with high degree of uncertainty in comparison with traditional methods

MATHEMATICAL JUSTIFICATION OF RESERACH METODOLOGY OF FUZZY SET PROPERTIES OF THE GESKE MODEL AND ITS MODIFICAIONS TO REAL OPTIONS

The purpose of this study is to adapt methods of fuzzy sets to analyze the effectiveness of multistage investment projects. The problem solved by the study is as follows. Some innovative projects are characterized by the lack of profitability in the early stages of implementation and high risk associated with high uncertainty of assessment of expected future cash flows generated by the project. In this situation, the use of standard methods of analysis of economic efficiency of investment projects in high-tech industries, does not provide a comprehensive assessment of the appropriateness of investing, as well as to quantify the accuracy of the dynamics of the projected figures. All this requires the development of theory and methods of analysis of economic efficiency of innovation. Application of real options, as well as the fuzzy sets is, in our view, the direction of improving these methods. The fuzzy random pairs approach is developed in order to study fuzzy set properties of random pointwise set mappings. The articles proposes generalization of the fuzzy random pairs approach for research of stochastic processes. The generalization is initiated by an approach to exploration of uncertainty in research project supported with an RFBR grant no. 15-06-06914, which is based on application of the Geske model modification. Mathematical description of the generalization is carried out for an example of a real venture-backed investment project aimed at organization of methyl chloride to ethylene processing. The generalization essence is in the following: 1) time variable t in a random process ξ () t is replaced with a random value u , distributed uniformly within a segment [0; T ], which turns the process ξ () t into a bidimensional random value V = u ,ξ( ) ) 0;( u , defined on [ T ]× R ; 2) the random value V value is translated into a random pointwise set mapping using the interval translation; 3) in order to translate the random pointwise set mapping into a fuzzy set and to build its membership function a stochastic algorithm is used; 4) for fuzzy set exploration of the resulting pointwise set mapping the fuzzy random pairs approach is used. The solution of the Geske model is a stochastic process defined on a finite segment of time. The article contains main definitions and adaptations of abstract procedures of fuzzy set approach to the real investment project aimed at organization of methyl chloride to ethylene processing. A detailed research of this project attributes with the use of suggested fuzzy set approach lays beyond the frame of the article and should be the subject of an independent applied research

ОЦЕНКА ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ВЕНЧУРНОГО ФИНАНСИРОВАНИЯ МЕТОДОМ РЕАЛЬНЫХ ОПЦИОНОВ

In the current financial theory traditional approaches to assessment of efficiency of innovative projects very often show their limitations, since most of them are not suitable for projects implemented in conditions of high risk and uncertainty. In such situation, the urgent task is to improve the methodological approaches to evaluation of innovative projects’effectiveness by venture funds implementing new assessment tools that are used in the world practice. Among such instruments is real options method. The problem considered in this paper may be formulated in the following way: how can a venture fund make an evaluation of investment project which has a high degree of uncertainty. The methodological approach suggested by the authors is tested on the real venture-backed innovative project in the petrochemical industry, which is implemented in Russia. The results of calculations of indicators for assessing of economic efficiency of innovative project are presented. The meaningful interpretation of the obtained results is given. In accordance with the standard NPV-method in many cases the project is not efficient for venture fund and should be rejected. However, if we take into account the value of a compound call option, the project in many cases will have a positive value and will receive financing. The value of the compound call option increases the value of the innovative project taking into account the factor of its phased implementation and the ability to withdraw financing at some point of time. In other words, the real options method allows to take into account and quantify the managerial flexibility when management of the innovative project is making a decision of its further implementation, that expands the analytical capabilities of financial practitioners and improve the accuracy of the estimation.В современной теории финансов традиционные подходы к оценке эффективности инновационных проектов зачастую демонстрируют свою ограниченность, поскольку в большинстве своем предназначены для компаний, функционирующих в стабильных сферах бизнеса. В этой ситуации актуальной задачей является совершенствование методических подходов к оценке эффективности инновационных проектов венчурными фондами с применением новых методов оценки, использующихся в мировой практике. К числу таких методов относится метод реальных опционов. Анализируемая в данной статье проблема может быть сформулирована следующим образом: как венчурный фонд может оценить инвестиционный проект, имеющий высокую степень неопределенности. Предлагаемый авторами методический подход апробируется на реальном инновационном проекте в нефтехимической промышленности, реализуемом на территории России и финансируемом за счет средств венчурного фонда. Представлены результаты расчетов показателей оценки экономической эффективности инновационного проекта. Дана содержательная интерпретация полученных результатов. В соответствии со стандартным методом NPV во многих случаях проект не является эффективным для венчурного фонда и должен быть отвергнут. Однако если в стоимости проекта для венчурного фонда мы учтем стоимость составного колл-опциона, проект во многих случаях будет иметь положительную стоимость и получит финансирование. Стоимость составного колл-опциона увеличивает ценность инновационного проекта за счет учета фактора его поэтапной реализации и возможности прекратить финансирование в определенный момент времени. Иными словами, метод реальных опционов дает возможность учесть и количественно оценить управленческую гибкость при принятии решений менеджментом инновационного проекта о его дальнейшей реализации, что расширяет аналитические возможности финансистов-практиков и позволяет повысить точность оценки