8 research outputs found
The effect of early and late pharmacological correction with GABA derivatives of psychoemotional state of offspring of rats with experimental preeclampsia
Experimental preeclampsia has a negative effect on the psychoemotional state of offspring. Early and late pharmacological correction with derivatives of GABA, such as succicard, salifen and phenibut, reduced anxiety, manifestations of obsessive-compulsive disorder, and depression in offspring of the rats with EP pregnanc
ΠΠΠΠΠΠΠΠ§ΠΠ‘ΠΠΠ― ΠΠ€Π€ΠΠΠ’ΠΠΠΠΠ‘Π’Π¬ ΠΠΠΠΠΠΠ¦ΠΠΠΠΠ«Π₯ ΠΠ ΠΠΠΠ’ΠΠ Π‘ ΠΠΠΠ§Π£Π ΠΠ«Π Π€ΠΠΠΠΠ‘ΠΠ ΠΠΠΠΠΠΠ
The absence of profi tability is typical for innovative projects on the early stages of its implementation and high risk because of high level of uncertainty of the estimates of forecasted cash fl ows. In this situation, the use of standard methods for economic effi ciency analysis of the projects does not allow to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the advisability of investing, as well as to quantify the accuracy of the dynamics of forecasted indicators. All of this requires the development of the theory and methods for analysis of economic efficiency of innovations and determines the high level of fundamentality of the issue. The application of real options method and fuzzy sets theory is, in our opinion, the directions of the improvement of these methods.The paper deals with the problems of usage of new methods for evaluation of economic efficiency of innovative projects with venture financing in the industry sector. The opportunities of application the real options method to evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative projects with venture financing using fuzzy sets are investigated. Short review of works of foreign and Russian researchers is given.The new methodological approach to the evaluation of the economic effectiveness of innovative projects with venture financing based on the real options method using modified Geskeβs formula with fuzzy sets analysis is proposed. The methodological approach will enable to evaluate quantitatively the fact of staged investment of the project and the possibility to stop financing in the case of receiving negative information about its implementation. In other words it will enable to take into account and quantitatively evaluate the flexibility in making managerial decisions.In general, synthesis of the probability methods and fuzzy sets in the analysis of venture financing of innovative projects based on the real options method extends the venture capital investorβs tools used to validate the investment decisions. Also the proposed approach allows to get a more accurate assessment of the effectiveness of investment projects with high degree of uncertainty in comparison with traditional methods.Β ΠΠ»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠ½Ρ ΠΎΡΡΡΡΡΡΠ²ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ±ΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ²ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ°ΠΏΠ°Ρ
ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΈ Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΠΊ, ΡΠ²ΡΠ·Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΉ Ρ Π²ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ Π³Π΅Π½Π΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ
ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ
Π΄Π΅Π½Π΅ΠΆΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ². Π ΡΡΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΡΠ°Π½Π΄Π°ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Π½Π΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΠ½ΡΡ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΡ ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΡΠΎΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΉ, Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ. ΠΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠΎ ΡΡΠ΅Π±ΡΠ΅Ρ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ΅Ρ Π²ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ½Π΄Π°ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ. ΠΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π° ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ², Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ Π°ΠΏΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠ° Π½Π΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠΆΠ΅ΡΡΠ² ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ, ΠΏΠΎ Π½Π°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ ΠΌΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ, Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ²ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π½Π°Π·Π²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ².Π ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΌΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡΡΡ Π²ΠΎΠΏΡΠΎΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Ρ Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π² ΠΏΡΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, Π° ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ: ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΡΡΡΡ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΠΏΡΠΈΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ² ΠΊ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ΅ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Ρ Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Ρ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π°ΠΏΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠ° Π½Π΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠΆΠ΅ΡΡΠ². ΠΠ°Π΅ΡΡΡ ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΠ±Π·ΠΎΡ ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡ Π·Π°ΡΡΠ±Π΅ΠΆΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΉΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΊΠ΅.ΠΠΏΠΈΡΡΠ²Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Ρ Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π° ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ² Ρ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠΈΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ»Ρ ΠΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ΅ ΠΈ Π²ΠΊΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π½Π΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎ-ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠΆΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°ΠΏΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ° ΠΈ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π½Π΅Π³Π°ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎ Π΅Π³ΠΎ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ, Ρ.Π΅. ΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΡΡ Π³ΠΈΠ±ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ½ΡΡΠΈΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΎ Π΄Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π΅ΠΉΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ°.Π ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠΌ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π· ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΊΠΎ-Π²Π΅ΡΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎ-ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠΆΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π² Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π΅ Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π° ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ² ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΉ Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΎΡΠ°, ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΠΉ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ², Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΡΡ Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅ ΡΠΎΡΠ½ΡΡ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΡ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Ρ Π²ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΠ΅ΠΏΠ΅Π½ΡΡ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎ ΡΡΠ°Π²Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Ρ ΡΡΠ°Π΄ΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ.
THE CONCEPT OF REAL OPTIONS AS AN INNOVATIVE METHOD OF ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN INDUSTRY
The paper deals with problems of application of the concept of real options as the new innovative method of assessing the economic effectiveness of investment projects in industry sector. Critical review of works of foreign and Russian researchers is given. The author's approach to assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects in the industry sector with the introduction of the real options method is proposed and tested. The author's step-by-step algorithm of evaluation is described. Proposed methodology is tested on real innovative project, implemented in the Russian Federation and financed by the venture capital fund. The paper demonstrates that the value of the compound call option increases the overall value of the project due to the factor of staged investment and a possibility to stop financing, that is, due to a higher flexibility in making managerial decisions. The efficiency of using the real options method when applied to the evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative projects by a venture capital investor is shown. In general, the use of the real options method extends the tools used by the venture capital investor in making decisions on project investments
THE METHODOLOGY OF ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS WITH VENTURE FINANCING BASED ON REAL OPTIONS METHOD WITH FUZZY SETS ANALYSIS
The absence of profi tability is typical for innovative projects on the early stages of its implementation and high risk because of high level of uncertainty of the estimates of forecasted cash fl ows. In this situation, the use of standard methods for economic effi ciency analysis of the projects does not allow to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the advisability of investing, as well as to quantify the accuracy of the dynamics of forecasted indicators. All of this requires the development of the theory and methods for analysis of economic efficiency of innovations and determines the high level of fundamentality of the issue. The application of real options method and fuzzy sets theory is, in our opinion, the directions of the improvement of these methods.The paper deals with the problems of usage of new methods for evaluation of economic efficiency of innovative projects with venture financing in the industry sector. The opportunities of application the real options method to evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative projects with venture financing using fuzzy sets are investigated. Short review of works of foreign and Russian researchers is given.The new methodological approach to the evaluation of the economic effectiveness of innovative projects with venture financing based on the real options method using modified Geskeβs formula with fuzzy sets analysis is proposed. The methodological approach will enable to evaluate quantitatively the fact of staged investment of the project and the possibility to stop financing in the case of receiving negative information about its implementation. In other words it will enable to take into account and quantitatively evaluate the flexibility in making managerial decisions.In general, synthesis of the probability methods and fuzzy sets in the analysis of venture financing of innovative projects based on the real options method extends the venture capital investorβs tools used to validate the investment decisions. Also the proposed approach allows to get a more accurate assessment of the effectiveness of investment projects with high degree of uncertainty in comparison with traditional methods
MATHEMATICAL JUSTIFICATION OF RESERACH METODOLOGY OF FUZZY SET PROPERTIES OF THE GESKE MODEL AND ITS MODIFICAIONS TO REAL OPTIONS
The purpose of this study is to adapt methods of fuzzy sets to analyze the effectiveness of multistage investment projects. The problem solved by the study is as follows. Some innovative projects are characterized by the lack of profitability in the early stages of implementation and high risk associated with high uncertainty of assessment of expected future cash flows generated by the project. In this situation, the use of standard methods of analysis of economic efficiency of investment projects in high-tech industries, does not provide a comprehensive assessment of the appropriateness of investing, as well as to quantify the accuracy of the dynamics of the projected figures. All this requires the development of theory and methods of analysis of economic efficiency of innovation. Application of real options, as well as the fuzzy sets is, in our view, the direction of improving these methods. The fuzzy random pairs approach is developed in order to study fuzzy set properties of random pointwise set mappings. The articles proposes generalization of the fuzzy random pairs approach for research of stochastic processes. The generalization is initiated by an approach to exploration of uncertainty in research project supported with an RFBR grant no. 15-06-06914, which is based on application of the Geske model modification. Mathematical description of the generalization is carried out for an example of a real venture-backed investment project aimed at organization of methyl chloride to ethylene processing. The generalization essence is in the following: 1) time variable t in a random process ΞΎ () t is replaced with a random value u , distributed uniformly within a segment [0; T ], which turns the process ΞΎ () t into a bidimensional random value V = u ,ΞΎ( ) ) 0;( u , defined on [ T ]Γ R ; 2) the random value V value is translated into a random pointwise set mapping using the interval translation; 3) in order to translate the random pointwise set mapping into a fuzzy set and to build its membership function a stochastic algorithm is used; 4) for fuzzy set exploration of the resulting pointwise set mapping the fuzzy random pairs approach is used. The solution of the Geske model is a stochastic process defined on a finite segment of time. The article contains main definitions and adaptations of abstract procedures of fuzzy set approach to the real investment project aimed at organization of methyl chloride to ethylene processing. A detailed research of this project attributes with the use of suggested fuzzy set approach lays beyond the frame of the article and should be the subject of an independent applied research
ΠΠ¦ΠΠΠΠ ΠΠ€Π€ΠΠΠ’ΠΠΠΠΠ‘Π’Π ΠΠΠΠ§Π£Π ΠΠΠΠ Π€ΠΠΠΠΠ‘ΠΠ ΠΠΠΠΠΠ― ΠΠΠ’ΠΠΠΠ Π ΠΠΠΠ¬ΠΠ«Π₯ ΠΠΠ¦ΠΠΠΠΠ
In the current financial theory traditional approaches to assessment of efficiency of innovative projects very often show their limitations, since most of them are not suitable for projects implemented in conditions of high risk and uncertainty. In such situation, the urgent task is to improve the methodological approaches to evaluation of innovative projectsβeffectiveness by venture funds implementing new assessment tools that are used in the world practice. Among such instruments is real options method. The problem considered in this paper may be formulated in the following way: how can a venture fund make an evaluation of investment project which has a high degree of uncertainty. The methodological approach suggested by the authors is tested on the real venture-backed innovative project in the petrochemical industry, which is implemented in Russia. The results of calculations of indicators for assessing of economic efficiency of innovative project are presented. The meaningful interpretation of the obtained results is given. In accordance with the standard NPV-method in many cases the project is not efficient for venture fund and should be rejected. However, if we take into account the value of a compound call option, the project in many cases will have a positive value and will receive financing. The value of the compound call option increases the value of the innovative project taking into account the factor of its phased implementation and the ability to withdraw financing at some point of time. In other words, the real options method allows to take into account and quantify the managerial flexibility when management of the innovative project is making a decision of its further implementation, that expands the analytical capabilities of financial practitioners and improve the accuracy of the estimation.Π ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ² ΡΡΠ°Π΄ΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΊ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ΅ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Π·Π°ΡΠ°ΡΡΡΡ Π΄Π΅ΠΌΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΠΈΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ, ΠΏΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΡΠΊΡ Π² Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠ½ΡΡΠ²Π΅ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π½Π°Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ°Π½ΠΈΠΉ, ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΈΡΡΡΡΠΈΡ
Π² ΡΡΠ°Π±ΠΈΠ»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ°Ρ
Π±ΠΈΠ·Π½Π΅ΡΠ°. Π ΡΡΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π°ΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ²ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΊ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ΅ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΠΎΠ½Π΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ, ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
ΡΡ Π² ΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΊΠ΅. Π ΡΠΈΡΠ»Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ². ΠΠ½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ Π² Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ° ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ Π±ΡΡΡ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΡΡΠΈΠΌ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠΌ: ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΡΠΎΠ½Π΄ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡ, ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΉ Π²ΡΡΠΎΠΊΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅ΠΏΠ΅Π½Ρ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»Π°Π³Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΉ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Π½Π° ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ΅ Π² Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ΅Ρ
ΠΈΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΠΌ Π½Π° ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ Π ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΈ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΠΌ Π·Π° ΡΡΠ΅Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ² Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ½Π΄Π°. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ°. ΠΠ°Π½Π° ΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΆΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΏΡΠ΅ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ². Π ΡΠΎΠΎΡΠ²Π΅ΡΡΡΠ²ΠΈΠΈ ΡΠΎ ΡΡΠ°Π½Π΄Π°ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠΌ NPV Π²ΠΎ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡ Π½Π΅ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΠΌ Π΄Π»Ρ Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ½Π΄Π° ΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ΅Π½ Π±ΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠ³Π½ΡΡ. ΠΠ΄Π½Π°ΠΊΠΎ Π΅ΡΠ»ΠΈ Π² ΡΡΠΎΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ° Π΄Π»Ρ Π²Π΅Π½ΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ½Π΄Π° ΠΌΡ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΡΠΎΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π»-ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°, ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡ Π²ΠΎ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ
Π±ΡΠ΄Π΅Ρ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ ΡΡΠΎΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅. Π‘ΡΠΎΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π»-ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π° ΡΠ²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π΅Ρ ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ° Π·Π° ΡΡΠ΅Ρ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠ° Π΅Π³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°ΠΏΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΈ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π² ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½Ρ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΠΈ. ΠΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π°ΠΌΠΈ, ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ² Π΄Π°Π΅Ρ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΡΡ Π³ΠΈΠ±ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ½ΡΡΠΈΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π΄ΠΆΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΈΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΡΠ° ΠΎ Π΅Π³ΠΎ Π΄Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π΅ΠΉΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ, ΡΡΠΎ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΡΠΎΠ²-ΠΏΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΡΠΈΡΡ ΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ