Application of the Kelly Criterion to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes

In this paper, we study the Kelly criterion in the continuous time framework building on the work of E.O. Thorp and others. The existence of an optimal strategy is proven in a general setting and the corresponding optimal wealth process is found. A simple formula is provided for calculating the optimal portfolio for a set of price processes satisfying some simple conditions. Properties of the optimal investment strategy for assets governed by multiple Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are studied. The paper ends with a short discussion of the implications of these ideas for financial markets.Comment: presented at Complex'2009 (Shanghai, Feb. 23-25

Correlations and bounds for stochastic volatility models

International audienc

Order of convergence of regression parameter estimates in models with infinite variance

AbstractA semimartingale driven continuous time linear regression model is studied. Assumptions concerning errors allow us to consider also models with infinite variance. The order of the almost sure convergence of a class of estimates which includes least squares estimates is given. In the presence of errors with heavy tails a modification of least squares estimates is suggested and shown to be better than the latter

Lognormality of Rates and Term Structure Models

A term structure model with lognormal type volatility structure is proposed. The Heath, Jarrow and Morton (HJM) framework, coupled with the theory of stochastic evolution equations in infinite dimensions, is used to show that the resulting rates are well defined (they do not explode) and remain positive. They are bounded from below and above by lognormal processes. The model can be used to price and hedge caps, swaptions and other interest rate and currency derivatives including the Eurodollar futures contract, which requires integrability of one over zero coupon bond. This extends results obtained by Sandmann and Sondermann (1993), (1994) for Markovian lognormal short rates to (non-Markovian) lognormal forward rates.Term structure of interest rates, lognormal volatility structure, Heath, Jarrow and Morton models.

Option Pricing Formulas based on a non-Gaussian Stock Price Model

Options are financial instruments that depend on the underlying stock. We explain their non-Gaussian fluctuations using the nonextensive thermodynamics parameter $q$. A generalized form of the Black-Scholes (B-S) partial differential equation, and some closed-form solutions are obtained. The standard B-S equation ($q=1$) which is used by economists to calculate option prices requires multiple values of the stock volatility (known as the volatility smile). Using $q=1.5$ which well models the empirical distribution of returns, we get a good description of option prices using a single volatility.Comment: final version (published

Pricing Options in Incomplete Equity Markets via the Instantaneous Sharpe Ratio

We use a continuous version of the standard deviation premium principle for pricing in incomplete equity markets by assuming that the investor issuing an unhedgeable derivative security requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. First, we apply our method to price options on non-traded assets for which there is a traded asset that is correlated to the non-traded asset. Our main contribution to this particular problem is to show that our seller/buyer prices are the upper/lower good deal bounds of Cochrane and Sa\'{a}-Requejo (2000) and of Bj\"{o}rk and Slinko (2006) and to determine the analytical properties of these prices. Second, we apply our method to price options in the presence of stochastic volatility. Our main contribution to this problem is to show that the instantaneous Sharpe ratio, an integral ingredient in our methodology, is the negative of the market price of volatility risk, as defined in Fouque, Papanicolaou, and Sircar (2000).Comment: Keywords: Pricing derivative securities, incomplete markets, Sharpe ratio, correlated assets, stochastic volatility, non-linear partial differential equations, good deal bound

Performance of utility based strategies for hedging basis risk

The performance of optimal strategies for hedging a claim on a non-traded asset is analyzed. The claim is valued and hedged in a utility maximization framework, using exponential utility. A traded asset, correlated with that underlying the claim, is used for hedging, with the correlation $\rho$ typically close to 1. Using a distortion method (Zariphopoulou 2001, Finance and Stochastics 5, 61-82) we derive a nonlinear expectation representation for the claim's ask price and a formula for the optimal hedging strategy. We generate a perturbation expansion for the price and hedging strategy in powers of $\epsilon^{2}=1-\rho^{2}$. The terms in the price expansion are proportional to the central moments of the claim payoff under the minimal martingale measure. The resulting fast computation capability is used to carry out a simulation based test of the optimal hedging program, computing the terminal hedging error over many asset price paths. These errors are compared with those from a naive strategy which uses the traded asset as a proxy for the non-traded one. The distribution of the hedging error acts as a suitable metric to analyze hedging performance. We find that the optimal policy improves hedging performance, in that the hedging error distribution is more sharply peaked around a non-negative profit. The frequency of profits over losses is increased, and this is measured by the median of the distribution, which is always increased by the optimal strategies. An empirical example illustrates the application ofthe method to the hedging of a stock basket using index futures

Indifference valuation in incomplete binomial models

Abstract The indifference valuation problem in incomplete binomial models is analyzed. The model is more general than the ones studied so far, because the stochastic factor, which generates the market incompleteness, may affect the transition propabilities and/or the values of the traded asset as well as the claim's payoff. Two pricing algorithms are constructed which use, respectively, the minimal martingale and the minimal entropy measures. We study in detail the interplay among the different kinds of market incompleteness, the pricing measures and the price functionals. The dependence of the prices on the choice of the trading horizon is discussed. The family of "almost complete" (reduced) binomial models is also studied. It is shown that the two measures and the associated price functionals coincide, and that the effects of the horizon choice dissipate

Nonlinear Parabolic Equations arising in Mathematical Finance

This survey paper is focused on qualitative and numerical analyses of fully nonlinear partial differential equations of parabolic type arising in financial mathematics. The main purpose is to review various non-linear extensions of the classical Black-Scholes theory for pricing financial instruments, as well as models of stochastic dynamic portfolio optimization leading to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. After suitable transformations, both problems can be represented by solutions to nonlinear parabolic equations. Qualitative analysis will be focused on issues concerning the existence and uniqueness of solutions. In the numerical part we discuss a stable finite-volume and finite difference schemes for solving fully nonlinear parabolic equations.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1603.0387