The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years

This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.Comment: Submitted to Special Issue of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: 25 years of ensemble predictio

Sudden switch of generalized Lieb-Robinson velocity in a transverse field Ising spin chain

The Lieb-Robinson theorem states that the speed at which the correlations between two distant nodes in a spin network can be built through local interactions has an upper bound, which is called the Lieb-Robinson velocity. Our central aim is to demonstrate how to observe the Lieb-Robinson velocity in an Ising spin chain with a strong transverse field. We adopt and compare four correlation measures for characterizing different types of correlations, which include correlation function, mutual information, quantum discord, and entanglement of formation. We prove that one of correlation functions shows a special behavior depending on the parity of the spin number. All the information-theoretical correlation measures demonstrate the existence of the Lieb-Robinson velocity. In particular, we find that there is a sudden switch of the Lieb-Robinson speed with the increasing of the number of spin

Endocrine Therapy Nonadherence and Discontinuation in Black and White Women

Background: Differential use of endocrine therapy (ET) by race may contribute to breast cancer outcome disparities, but racial differences in ET behaviors are poorly understood. Methods: Women aged 20-74 years with a first primary, stage I-III, hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer were included. At 2 years postdiagnosis, we assessed nonadherence, defined as not taking ET every day or missing more than two pills in the past 14 days, discontinuation, and a composite measure of underuse, defined as either missing pills or discontinuing completely. Using logistic regression, we evaluated the relationship between race and nonadherence, discontinuation, and overall underuse in unadjusted, clinically adjusted, and socioeconomically adjusted models. Results: A total of 1280 women were included; 43.2% self-identified as black. Compared to white women, black women more often reported nonadherence (13.7% vs 5.2%) but not discontinuation (10.0% vs 10.7%). Black women also more often reported the following: hot flashes, night sweats, breast sensitivity, and joint pain; believing that their recurrence risk would not change if they stopped ET; forgetting to take ET; and cost-related barriers. In multivariable analysis, black race remained statistically significantly associated with nonadherence after adjusting for clinical characteristics (adjusted odds ratio = 2.72, 95% confidence interval = 1.75 to 4.24) and after adding socioeconomic to clinical characteristics (adjusted odds ratio = 2.44, 95% confidence interval = 1.50 to 3.97) but was not independently associated with discontinuation after adjustment. Low recurrence risk perception and lack of a shared decision making were strongly predictive of ET underuse across races. Conclusions: Our results highlight important racial differences in ET-Adherence behaviors, perceptions of benefits/harms, and shared decision making that may be targeted with culturally tailored interventions

A population analysis of pulse broadening in ASKAP fast radio bursts

The pulse morphology of fast radio bursts (FRBs) provides key information in both understanding progenitor physics and the plasma medium through which the burst propagates. We present a study of the profiles of 33 bright FRBs detected by the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder. We identify seven FRBs with measureable intrinsic pulse widths, including two FRBs that have been seen to repeat. In our modest sample, we see no evidence for bimodality in the pulse width distribution. We also identify five FRBs with evidence of millisecond time-scale pulse broadening caused by scattering in inhomogeneous plasma. We find no evidence for a relationship between pulse broadening and extragalactic dispersion measure. The scattering could be either caused by extreme turbulence in the host galaxy or chance propagation through foreground galaxies. With future high time resolution observations and detailed study of host galaxy properties, we may be able to probe line-of-sight turbulence on gigaparsec scales

Modification of alumina matrices through chemical etching and electroless deposition of nano-Au array for amperometric sensing

Simple nanoporous alumina matrix modification procedure, in which the electrically highly insulating alumina barrier layer at the bottom of the pores is replaced with the conductive layer of the gold beds, was described. This modification makes possible the direct electron exchange between the underlying aluminum support and the redox species encapsulated in the alumina pores, thus, providing the generic platform for the nanoporous alumina sensors (biosensors) with the direct amperometric signal readout fabrication

Inequalities in the use of secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status: evidence from the PURE observational study

Background: There is little evidence on the use of secondary prevention medicines for cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic groups in countries at different levels of economic development. Methods: We assessed use of antiplatelet, cholesterol, and blood-pressure-lowering drugs in 8492 individuals with self-reported cardiovascular disease from 21 countries enrolled in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Defining one or more drugs as a minimal level of secondary prevention, wealth-related inequality was measured using the Wagstaff concentration index, scaled from −1 (pro-poor) to 1 (pro-rich), standardised by age and sex. Correlations between inequalities and national health-related indicators were estimated. Findings: The proportion of patients with cardiovascular disease on three medications ranged from 0% in South Africa (95% CI 0–1·7), Tanzania (0–3·6), and Zimbabwe (0–5·1), to 49·3% in Canada (44·4–54·3). Proportions receiving at least one drug varied from 2·0% (95% CI 0·5–6·9) in Tanzania to 91·4% (86·6–94·6) in Sweden. There was significant (p<0·05) pro-rich inequality in Saudi Arabia, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe. Pro-poor distributions were observed in Sweden, Brazil, Chile, Poland, and the occupied Palestinian territory. The strongest predictors of inequality were public expenditure on health and overall use of secondary prevention medicines. Interpretation: Use of medication for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease is alarmingly low. In many countries with the lowest use, pro-rich inequality is greatest. Policies associated with an equal or pro-poor distribution include free medications and community health programmes to support adherence to medications. Funding: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments)

Stochastic Acceleration by Turbulence

The subject of this paper is stochastic acceleration by plasma turbulence, a process akin to the original model proposed by Fermi. We review the relative merits of different acceleration models, in particular the so called first order Fermi acceleration by shocks and second order Fermi by stochastic processes, and point out that plasma waves or turbulence play an important role in all mechanisms of acceleration. Thus, stochastic acceleration by turbulence is active in most situations. We also show that it is the most efficient mechanism of acceleration of relatively cool non relativistic thermal background plasma particles. In addition, it can preferentially accelerate electrons relative to protons as is needed in many astrophysical radiating sources, where usually there are no indications of presence of shocks. We also point out that a hybrid acceleration mechanism consisting of initial acceleration by turbulence of background particles followed by a second stage acceleration by a shock has many attractive features. It is demonstrated that the above scenarios can account for many signatures of the accelerated electrons, protons and other ions, in particular $^3$He and $^4$He, seen directly as Solar Energetic Particles and through the radiation they produce in solar flares.Comment: 29 pages 7 figures for proceedings of ISSI-Bern workshop on Particle Acceleration 201

Toward a Multifaceted Heuristic of Digital Reading to Inform Assessment, Research, Practice, and Policy

In this commentary, the author explores the tension between almost 30 years of work that has embraced increasingly complex conceptions of digital reading and recent studies that risk oversimplifying digital reading as a singular entity analogous with reading text on a screen. The author begins by tracing a line of theoretical and empirical work that both informs and complicates our understanding of digital literacy and, more specifically, digital reading. Then, a heuristic is proposed to systematically organize, label, and define a multifaceted set of increasingly complex terms, concepts, and practices that characterize the spectrum of digital reading experiences. Research that informs this heuristic is used to illustrate how more precision in defining digital reading can promote greater clarity across research methods and advance a more systematic study of promising digital reading practices. Finally, the author discusses implications for assessment, research, practice, and policy