Self-explaining AI as an alternative to interpretable AI

The ability to explain decisions made by AI systems is highly sought after, especially in domains where human lives are at stake such as medicine or autonomous vehicles. While it is often possible to approximate the input-output relations of deep neural networks with a few human-understandable rules, the discovery of the double descent phenomena suggests that such approximations do not accurately capture the mechanism by which deep neural networks work. Double descent indicates that deep neural networks typically operate by smoothly interpolating between data points rather than by extracting a few high level rules. As a result, neural networks trained on complex real world data are inherently hard to interpret and prone to failure if asked to extrapolate. To show how we might be able to trust AI despite these problems we introduce the concept of self-explaining AI. Self-explaining AIs are capable of providing a human-understandable explanation of each decision along with confidence levels for both the decision and explanation. For this approach to work, it is important that the explanation actually be related to the decision, ideally capturing the mechanism used to arrive at the explanation. Finally, we argue it is important that deep learning based systems include a "warning light" based on techniques from applicability domain analysis to warn the user if a model is asked to extrapolate outside its training distribution. For a video presentation of this talk see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py7PVdcu7WY& .Comment: 10pgs, 2 column forma

The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

BRE modulates granulosa cell death to affect ovarian follicle development and atresia in the mouse

The BRE (brain and reproductive expression) gene, highly expressed in nervous and reproductive system organs, plays an important role in modulating DNA damage repair under stress response and pathological conditions. Folliculogenesis, a process that ovarian follicle develops into maturation, is closely associated with the interaction between somatic granulosa cell and oocyte. However, the regulatory role of BRE in follicular development remains undetermined. In this context, we found that BRE is normally expressed in the oocytes and granulosa cells from the primordial follicle stage. There was a reduction in follicles number of BRE mutant (BRE(−/−)) mice. It was attributed to increase the follicular atresia in ovaries, as a result of retarded follicular development. We established that cell proliferation was inhibited, while apoptosis was markedly increased in the granulosa cells in the absence of BRE. In addition, expressions of γ-H2AX (marker for showing DNA double-strand breaks) and DNA damage-relevant genes are both upregulated in BRE(−/−) mice. In sum, these results suggest that the absence of BRE, deficiency in DNA damage repair, causes increased apoptosis in granulosa cells, which in turn induces follicular atresia in BRE(−/−) mice

Modality matters for the expression of inducible defenses: introducing a concept of predator modality

Background: Inducible defenses are a common and widespread form of phenotypic plasticity. A fundamental factor driving their evolution is an unpredictable and heterogeneous predation pressure. This heterogeneity is often used synonymously to quantitative changes in predation risk, depending on the abundance and impact of predators. However, differences in `modality', that is, the qualitative aspect of natural selection caused by predators, can also cause heterogeneity. For instance, predators of the small planktonic crustacean Daphnia have been divided into two functional groups of predators: vertebrates and invertebrates. Predators of both groups are known to cause different defenses, yet predators of the same group are considered to cause similar responses. In our study we question that thought and address the issue of how multiple predators affect the expression and evolution of inducible defenses. Results: We exposed D. barbata to chemical cues released by Triops cancriformis and Notonecta glauca, respectively. We found for the first time that two invertebrate predators induce different shapes of the same morphological defensive traits in Daphnia, rather than showing gradual or opposing reaction norms. Additionally, we investigated the adaptive value of those defenses in direct predation trials, pairing each morphotype (non-induced, Triops-induced, Notonecta-induced) against the other two and exposed them to one of the two predators. Interestingly, against Triops, both induced morphotypes offered equal protection. To explain this paradox we introduce a `concept of modality' in multipredator regimes. Our concept categorizes two-predator-prey systems into three major groups (functionally equivalent, functionally inverse and functionally diverse). Furthermore, the concept includes optimal responses and costs of maladaptions of prey phenotypes in environments where both predators co-occur or where they alternate. Conclusion: With D. barbata, we introduce a new multipredator-prey system with a wide array of morphological inducible defenses. Based on a `concept of modality', we give possible explanations how evolution can favor specialized defenses over a general defense. Additionally, our concept not only helps to classify different multipredator-systems, but also stresses the significance of costs of phenotype-environment mismatching in addition to classic `costs of plasticity'. With that, we suggest that `modality' matters as an important factor in understanding and explaining the evolution of inducible defenses

Association between DNA Damage Response and Repair Genes and Risk of Invasive Serous Ovarian Cancer

BACKGROUND: We analyzed the association between 53 genes related to DNA repair and p53-mediated damage response and serous ovarian cancer risk using case-control data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), a population-based, case-control study. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analysis was restricted to 364 invasive serous ovarian cancer cases and 761 controls of white, non-Hispanic race. Statistical analysis was two staged: a screen using marginal Bayes factors (BFs) for 484 SNPs and a modeling stage in which we calculated multivariate adjusted posterior probabilities of association for 77 SNPs that passed the screen. These probabilities were conditional on subject age at diagnosis/interview, batch, a DNA quality metric and genotypes of other SNPs and allowed for uncertainty in the genetic parameterizations of the SNPs and number of associated SNPs. Six SNPs had Bayes factors greater than 10 in favor of an association with invasive serous ovarian cancer. These included rs5762746 (median OR(odds ratio)(per allele) = 0.66; 95% credible interval (CI) = 0.44-1.00) and rs6005835 (median OR(per allele) = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.53-0.91) in CHEK2, rs2078486 (median OR(per allele) = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.21-2.25) and rs12951053 (median OR(per allele) = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.20-2.26) in TP53, rs411697 (median OR (rare homozygote) = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.35 - 0.79) in BACH1 and rs10131 (median OR( rare homozygote) = not estimable) in LIG4. The six most highly associated SNPs are either predicted to be functionally significant or are in LD with such a variant. The variants in TP53 were confirmed to be associated in a large follow-up study. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on our findings, further follow-up of the DNA repair and response pathways in a larger dataset is warranted to confirm these results

E-cadherin expression and bromodeoxyuridine incorporation during development of ovarian inclusion cysts in age-matched breeder and incessantly ovulated CD-1 mice

BACKGROUND: Female CD-1/Swiss Webster mice subjected to incessant ovulation for 8 months and 12-month breeder mice both developed ovarian inclusion cysts similar to serous cystadenomas. The majority of cysts appeared to be dilated rete ovarii tubules, but high ovulation number resulted in more cortical inclusion cysts. We hypothesized that comparison of inclusion cyst pathology in animals of the same age, but with differences in total lifetime ovulation number, might allow us to determine distinguishing characteristics of the two types of cyst. METHODS: Ovaries from breeder mice (BR) or females subjected to incessant ovulation (IO) were compared at 6-, 9- and 12-months of age. Ovaries were serially sectioned and cysts characterized with regard to location and histology, E-cadherin immunoreactivity and rates of BrdU incorporation. RESULTS: Inclusion cysts developed with age in BR and IO ovaries. The majority of cysts were connected to the ovarian hilus. Two cortical inclusion cysts were observed in ten IO ovaries and one in ten BR ovaries. Low or no E-cadherin immuno-staining was seen in the OSE of all mice studied. Conversely, strong membrane immuno-staining was observed in rete ovarii epithelial cells. Variable E-cadherin immunoreactivity was seen in cells of hilar inclusion cysts, with strong staining observed in cuboidal ciliated cells and little or no staining in flat epithelial cells. Two of the three cortical cysts contained papillae, which showed E-cadherin immuno-staining at the edge of cells. However hilar and cortical cysts were not distinguishable by morphology, cell type or E-cadherin immunoreactivity. BrdU incorporation in cyst cells (1.4% [95% CI: 1.0 to 2.1]) was greater than in OSE (0.7% [95% CI: 0.4 to 1.2]) and very few BrdU-labeled cells were observed in rete ovarii at any age. Incessant ovulation significantly increased BrdU incorporation in OSE of older animals. CONCLUSION: These experiments confirm ovarian inclusion cysts develop with age in the CD-1 mouse strain, irrespective of total ovulation burden. We conclude longer periods of incessant ovulation do not lead to significant changes in inclusion cyst formation or steroidogenesis in CD-1 mice and inclusion cyst type can not be distinguished by morphology, cell proliferation rate or E-cadherin immunoreactivity

Rapid Accumulation of Polymorphonuclear Neutrophils in the Corpus luteum during Prostaglandin F2α-Induced Luteolysis in the Cow

Prostaglandin F2α (PGF2α) induces luteolysis within a few days in cows, and immune cells increase in number in the regressing corpus luteum (CL), implying that luteolysis is an inflammatory-like immune response. We investigated the rapid change in polymorphonuclear neutrophil (PMN) numbers in response to PGF2α administration as the first cells recruited to inflammatory sites, together with mRNA of interleukin-8 (IL-8: neutrophil chemoattractant) and P-selectin (leukocyte adhesion molecule) in the bovine CL. CLs were collected by ovariectomy at various times after PGF2α injection. The number of PMNs was increased at 5 min after PGF2α administration, whereas IL-8 and P-selectin mRNA increased at 30 min and 2 h, respectively. PGF2α directly stimulated P-selectin protein expression at 5–30 min in luteal endothelial cells (LECs). Moreover, PGF2α enhanced PMN adhesion to LECs, and this enhancement by PGF2α was inhibited by anti-P-selectin antibody, suggesting that P-selectin expression by PGF2α is crucial in PMN migration. In conclusion, PGF2α rapidly induces the accumulation of PMNs into the bovine CL at 5 min and enhances PMN adhesion via P-selectin expression in LECs. It is suggested that luteolytic cascade by PGF2α may involve an acute inflammatory-like response due to rapidly infiltrated PMNs

Adaptive Significance of the Formation of Multi-Species Fish Spawning Aggregations near Submerged Capes

BACKGROUND: Many fishes are known to spawn at distinct geomorphological features such as submerged capes or "promontories," and the widespread use of these sites for spawning must imply some evolutionary advantage. Spawning at these capes is thought to result in rapid offshore transport of eggs, thereby reducing predation levels and facilitating dispersal to areas of suitable habitat. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To test this "off-reef transport" hypothesis, we use a hydrodynamic model and explore the effects of topography on currents at submerged capes where spawning occurs and at similar capes where spawning does not occur, along the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef. All capes modeled in this study produced eddy-shedding regimes, but specific eddy attributes differed between spawning and non-spawning sites. Eddies at spawning sites were significantly stronger than those at non-spawning sites, and upwelling and fronts were the products of the eddy formation process. Frontal zones, present particularly at the edges of eddies near the shelf, may serve to retain larvae and nutrients. Spawning site eddies were also more predictable in terms of diameter and longevity. Passive particles released at spawning and control sites were dispersed from the release site at similar rates, but particles from spawning sites were more highly aggregated in their distributions than those from control sites, and remained closer to shore at all times. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings contradict previous hypotheses that cape spawning leads to high egg dispersion due to offshore transport, and that they are attractive for spawning due to high, variable currents. Rather, we show that current regimes at spawning sites are more predictable, concentrate the eggs, and keep larvae closer to shore. These attributes would confer evolutionary advantages by maintaining relatively similar recruitment patterns year after year