The launch of the euro

The introduction on January 1, 1999, of the euro--the single currency adopted by eleven of the fifteen countries of the European Union--marked the beginning of the final stage of Economic and Monetary Union and the start of a new era in Europe. The creation of a single currency and a single monetary policy has provided both extraordinary challenges and exceptional opportunities within Europe. This article reviews the organization, objectives, and targets of the euro area's new central bank and discusses some of the early challenges it has faced in setting and implementing monetary policy with the new common currency. It discusses the initial functioning of the payment system and the interbank market and reviews the effects to date of the single currency on European bond and equity markets, on the banking system, and in euro-area transactions.Euro ; European Monetary System (Organization) ; European currency unit

Geography, Demography, and Early Development

This paper explores the role of geography in economic development and demographic transition. It presents a growth model where survival is endogenously determined and where the odds of survival and the returns to labor are higher in geographically favorable regions. Higher life expectancy prompts parents to devote more of their resources to old-age consumption and enjoyment. Consequently, the invest relatively more in the quantity and quality of their offspring. Investment in education, together with population growth eventually triggers technological progress. As the level of technology improves and life expectancy rises along with it, a geographically advantageous economy first enters a post-Malthusian regime during which both fertility and educational attainment increase. Then, as further improvements in technology lead to a higher education premium, such an economy undergoes a demographic transition during which life expectancy continues to rise and parents have fewer but more educated children. In regions where geography is more adverse, this transition does not take place and economies remain trapped in the Malthusian regime. Thus, accounting for the role of geography in development helps to link demographic transition to geography and shows that the latter affects the economy mostly indirectly through the impact of geography on households' demographic choices. In the early stages of development, those choices in turn determine whether economies attain the scale and scope necessary for sustained economic progress. The paper also provides a framework with which to asses why geography may matter less today.

Finance and macroeconomic volatility

Countries with more developed financial sectors, experience fewer fluctuations in real per capita output, consumption, and investment growth. But the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining consumption, and investment volatility. The proportion of credit provided to the private sector, best explains volatility of consumption, and output. The authors generate their main results using fixed-effects estimates with panel data from seventy countries for the years 1956-98. Their general findings suggest that the risk management, and information processing provided by banks, maybe especially important in reducing consumption, and investment volatility. The simple availability of credit to the private sector, probably helps smooth consumption, and GDP.Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,Environmental Economics&Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,Financial Intermediation

When would educational standards help improve scholastic achievement?

I study the potential effects on student performance to be expected from setting mandatory standards in primary and secondary education. To that end, I present a model in which investment in education is indivisible. Thus, if demand exceeds supply at any level of education, allocation is carried out--at least in part--via test scores. The model highlights how the effectiveness of educational standards in altering student performance depends on the college and secondary school education premia, the stringency of standards, and the supply of college education--factors which together determine the competitiveness of college admissions. A relatively high college education premium raises the incentive to finish high school and apply to college, but the marginal benefit of meeting standards or the cost of non-compliance depend on the secondary education premium. Thus, the effects on student performance if education standards are raised may be relatively small when the secondary education premium is relatively low. Moreover, when the supply of higher education is relatively abundant so that college entrance is a non-competitive process, students' incentive to make their best effort diminishes, and in that case, the role of education premia--and therefore of standards--as incentives may be limited.Education

Timing of childbearing, family size and economic growth

This paper incorporates the timing of childbearing into a growth model with endogenous fertility. It analyzes a model in which individuals' human capital stock depends positively on their education and parental human capital and in which producing and raising children and acquiring human capital are intensive. The model highlights how changes in the human capital stock interact with individuals' timing of childbearing in affecting the evolution of the economy. It shows that, if the complementarity between parental human capital and education in determining individuals' human capital is relatively large, then increases in the human capital stock raise the opportunity cost of having children while young and induce individuals to delay childbearing. That, in turn, accelerates human capital accumulation in the future. The model also demonstrates that early childbearing may lead to a development trap with low human capital.Demography ; Economics

Economic development and intergenerational economic mobility

This paper examines theoretically how economic growth affects intergenera­tional economic mobility. In the model developed in this paper, education is provided to the individuals free of cost, and admission to schools is competitive. The quantity of educational services available in any period depends on the total output of the economy in the same period. Individuals differ from each other in two respects. First, their innate mental abilities are determined by a stochastic process, and, second, their parents have different education levels. Individuals are admitted to schools based on their potential. An individual's potential is a function of her innate mental ability and her parent's education level. ; In this model, economic growth increases intergenerational economic mobility if and only if the effect of having an educated parent on an individual's poten­tial is not large. Moreover, if the effect of having an educated parent is not large, then there exists a unique steady state equilibrium and all economies will progress toward increased mobility. The model also shows that economic growth reduces the income difference between educated and uneducated labor if and only if the effect of having an educated parent on an individual's potential is not large. And, although population growth reduces intergenerational economic mobility, techno­logical progress increases it.Economic development

Human capital accumulation, fertility and growth: a re-analysis

This paper develops an economic growth model with endogenous fertility. In doing so, it provides a new explanation for the relation between fertility, economic development and human capital accumulation. The model emphasizes the role returns on human capital play in economic development through individuals' al­location of time between acquiring human capital and production and rearing of children. In the model, production and rearing children are time intensive and accumulating human capital requires time and has a cost. Individuals' stock of human capital depends positively on the time allocated to education and on their parents' stock of human capital. Moreover, increases in the parents' stock of hu­man capital raises the rate of return on human capital investment. As a result, individuals choose to allocate more time to education and less to producing and rearing children as their parents' stock of human capital increases. The model also demonstrates that individuals' choices on fertility and education may lead to multiple equilibria. Specifically, even if individuals' utility depends relatively more on their own consumption rather than on the number of children that they have, countries that have a low enough initial stock of human capital converge to a development trap with large families, little human capital and low output per capita.Human capital