Unlearned Lessons from Risk, Debt Service, Bank Credit, and Asymmetric Information

This paper presents a model of the economy that explains the economic bubbles, based on bank credit, debt service and risk. In the first period of the model, banks offer too much credit seeking to maximise their expected profits. The excessive debt created in the boom period generates, in the second-period, the expansion of the debt bubble, which induces failures in the financial market and the downturn of the overall economy. Business cycles are inherent in the free market systems. They may be caused by endogenous factors of financial markets and, given the absence of adequate, effective regulation, they may be unavoidable. Credit crunch in the financial market is therefore highly probable. In order to reduce substantially the risk of such occurrences, economic and financial policies are proposed. Key words: Asymmetric information, bank credit, risk, debt service and business cycle