Short-run vs. long-run cooperation among the G-20 countries

In a model of repeated games, we determine the conditions under which cooperation is an equilibrium outcome among the G-20 countries. We consider first, that members are uncertain about the lifespan of the G-20. Second, the nature of member countries and their interrelations can change because of shifts in government regimes. Monitoring and peer pressure to comply with the agreements made are necessary if the goals are to achieve cooperation and thereby attain desirable common goals. If member countries are prone to shifting government regimes and governments are not concerned about their countries' reputations, continuous cooperation becomes more difficult.Repeated games, Prisoners’ Dilemma, cooperation, monitoring, reputation

Moral Hazard Effects of Bailing out under Asymmetric Information

With a four-stage sequential game model, we study how bailouts ameliorate the effects of liquidation on fundamentals, reduce the likelihood of currency crises and affect the financial sector's (non-observable) effort. In stage 1, exchange rate regime is announced and all agents receive probabilistic information that a shock may occur in stage 4. Here, the government can commit to an optimal bailout or may wait until stage 4 when a bad shock may occur. The private sector in stage 2 forms exchange rate expectations, and decides on investments and effort. In stage 3, the government faces costs due to expectations of devaluation and liquidation, and may decide to pre-emptively abandon its exchange rate policy. We show that commitment decisions have very important implications for the agents' optimal decisions.

Case Study Analysis – SWEDEN : HTR Task Users TCP by IEA

This report was developed under the ‘Users Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Hard-to-Reach (HTR) Energy Users’. The Task aims to provide country participants with the opportunity to share and exchange successful approaches identifying and better engaging HTR energy users. Under the Task, HTR energy users are broadly defined as 'any energy user from the residential and non-residential sectors, who uses any type of energy or fuel, and who is typically either hard-to-reach physically, underserved, or hard to engage or motivate in behaviour change, energy efficiency and demand-side interventions’

Markets for Energy Efficiency - Exploring the new horizons of tradable certificate schemes

This doctoral thesis explores the implications of establishing tradable certificate schemes for improving energy efficiency (so-called ‘Tradable White Certificate’ [TWC] schemes). Carrying out different case studies, a set of complementary evaluation methods is applied in conducting ex-ante and ex-post evaluation studies. To analyse the attributes and complexities of TWC schemes, the thesis focuses on several aspects, including (i) the modelling of potential impacts, (ii) the identification and analysis of transaction costs, (iii) the investigation of trading patterns and other flexibilities used to achieve cost-effective compliance, (iv) the level of energy-saving effectiveness under TWC schemes, (v) the use of cost-benefit analysis, and (vi) the application of multi-criteria evaluation. The findings help answer questions concerning the impacts and outcomes of TWC schemes and identify critical endogenous and exogenous conditions that affect their performance. Furthermore, the research assists in developing an understanding of what aspects of TWC schemes need to be evaluated and how

Neglected Dimensions of Global Security: The Global Health Risk Framework Commission

The world has experienced global health crises ranging from novel influenzas (H5N1 and H1N1) and coronaviruses (SARS and MERS) to the Ebola and Zika viruses. In each case, governments and international organizations seemed unable to react quickly and decisively. Health crises have unmasked critical vulnerabilities— weak health systems, failures of leadership, and political overreaction and underreaction. The Global Health Risk Framework Commission, for which the National Academy of Medicine served as the secretariat, recently set out a comprehensive strategy to safeguard human and economic security from pandemic threats

Energy subsidies, public investment and endogenous growth

We consider impacts of fossil fuel subsidy reforms on economic growth, focusing mostly on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. The main empirical result is that a country that initially subsidizes its fossil fuels, and then eliminates or reduces these subsidies, will as a result experience higher economic GDP per capita growth, and higher levels of employment and labor force participation, especially among the young. These effects are strongest in countries whose fuel subsidies are high at the outset, such as in the MENA region. Our model predicts that a 20 US$ cents average increase in the gasoline and diesel prices per liter, through removal of subsidies, increase the GDP per capita growth rate by about 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively. In the MENA countries, governments’ savings from reduced subsidies seem to be earmarked mainly to health expenditures, education expenditures and public investment in infrastructure. These channels appear to be strong contributing factors to higher long-run growth when fuel subsidies are reduced

“Corporate investment, cash flow level and market imperfections”

We analyze firms’ investment behavior, differentiating firms according to the cash flow levels they experience during their lifecycles. We consequently consider the firm as the basic unit and not firm-year observations. Firms with persistent positive cash flow show higher investment-cash flow sensitivity than firms with persistent negative cash flow. Independent of the industry they belong to, older firms with positive cash flow show a weaker sensitivity than younger firms with positive cash flow. Firms with persistent negative cash flow are neither younger nor smaller than their counterparts, and their cash flow coefficient can be positive, negative or statistically insignificant. Thus, classifying firms by age or size may not yield a group of firms with similar financial structures.Financial constraints; internal funds; investment