Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence

This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. labor productivity growth in the post-1995 period and presents projections for both output and labor productivity growth for the next decade. Despite the recent downward revisions to U.S. GDP and software investment, we show that information technology (IT) played a substantial role in the U.S. productivity revival. We then outline a methodology for projecting trend output and productivity growth. Our base-case projection puts the rate of trend productivity growth at 2.21% per year over the next decade with a range of 1.33 - 2.92%, reflecting fundamental uncertainties about the rate of technological progress in IT-production and investment patterns. Our central projection is only slightly below the average growth rate of 2.36% during the 1995-2000 period.productivity, information technology

Geopolymer-based Coating Material for Metal Substrate

Coating is an applied layer on the substrate to enhance properties of the substrate. Geopolymer is produced through geopolymerization between alumina-silicate and alkaline solutions and has a great potential to be utilized as geopolymer-based coating material. The aim of this study is to investigate the properties of the geopolymer and geopolymer coated steel using microwave incinerated rice husk ash (MIRRA) and fly ash as the source of alumina and silica for the geopolymerization process. Characterizations were used to characterize the raw materials and geopolymers such as chemical composition and structure while geopolymerization was done by varying the synthesis parameters such. as solid/liquid ratio and SiOz/ Al.J<l) ratio. The results showed that the setting time of geopolymer decreased with increasing solid/liquid ratio, while the highest compressive strength of 31.78MPa was obtained when the solid/liquid ratio was 3.0 with 15% MIRRA addition. It was also observed that the change in mass of geopolymer due to water absorption ranged from 0.002% to 0.018% only. The results also showed that the coating thickness increased with increasing solid!1iquid ratio while the adhesive strength increased with the reduction in solid/liquid ratio as well as the addition of MIRHA where the highest adhesive strength which was larger than iSMPa, was achieved at solid/liquid ratio and MiRHA addition of 2.0 and 15%, respectively. Moreover. the corrosion ievei of the geopoiymer coated steel decreased with the addition of lvHRHA and increasing solid/liquid ralio. From this srudy, lvHRHA could be a potential raw materiailo enhance the performance of geopolymer as a coating malenal

Impact of Carbon Price Policies on U.S. Industry

This paper informs the discussion of carbon price policies by examining the potential for adverse impacts on domestic industries, with a focus on detailed sector-level analysis. The assumed policy scenario involves a unilateral economy-wide $10/ton CO2 charge without accompanying border tax adjustments or other complementary policies. Four modeling approaches are developed as a proxy for the different time horizons over which firms can pass through added costs, change input mix, adopt new technologies, and reallocate capital. Overall, we find that a readily identifiable set of industries experience particularly adverse impacts as measured by reduced output and that the relative burdens on different industries are remarkably consistent across the four time horizons. Output rebounds considerably over longer time horizons, and the adverse impacts on profits diminish even more rapidly in most cases. Over the short term employment losses mirror output declines, while gains in other industries fully offset the losses over the longer horizons. At the same time, leakage abroad is considerable in some sectors, particularly when reductions in exports are considered.carbon price, competitiveness, input-output analysis

The Near-Term Impacts of Carbon Mitigation Policies on Manufacturing Industries

Who will pay for new policies to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in the United States? This paper considers a slice of the question by examining the near-term impact on domestic manufacturing industries of both upstream (economy-wide) and downstream (electric power industry only) carbon mitigation policies. Detailed Census data on the electricity use of four-digit manufacturing industries is combined with input-output information on interindustry purchases to paint a detailed picture of carbon use, including effects on final demand. This approach, which freezes capital and other inputs at current levels and assumes that all costs are passed forward, yields upper-bound estimates of total costs. The results are best viewed as descriptive of the relative burdens within the manufacturing sector rather than as a measure of absolute costs. Overall, the principal conclusion is that within the manufacturing sector (which by definition excludes coal production and electricity generation), only a small number of industries would bear a disproportionate short-term burden of a carbon tax or similar policy. Not surprisingly, an electricity-only policy affects very different manufacturing industries than an economy-wide carbon tax.distribution of carbon mitigation costs, industrial impacts of carbon policies

Will the U.S. productivity resurgence continue?

U.S. productivity growth has accelerated in recent years, despite a series of negative economic shocks. An analysis of the sources of this growth over the 1995-2003 period suggests that the production and use of information technology account for a large share of the gains. The authors project that during the next decade, private sector productivity growth will continue at a rate of 2.6 percent per year, a significant increase from their 2002 projection of 2.2 percent growth.Productivity ; Information technology

The Impact of R&D on the Singapore Economy:An Empirical Evaluation

Much of the literature on the impact of R&D on economic performance is founded on the advanced countries, where the intensity of R&D expenditure has been relatively high and stable for many years. In this paper, we provide empirical estimates of the impact of R&D on the economic growth of a Newly Industrialised Economy, Singapore, where R&D expenditure intensity has been low initially, bur rising rapidly in recent years. The Cobb-Douglas based analysis provided empirical evidence that R&D investment in Singapore had a significant impact on its total factor productivity performance in the last 20 years and established a long-term equilibrium relationship between R&D investments and TFP. However, compared to the OECD nations, the impact of R&D investment on economic growth in Singapore is not as strong, as evidenced by lower estimated elasticity values. The long run elasticity of output with respect to R&D was computed to be 8.1% for Singapore compared to long run elasticities of over 10% estimated by other researchers for OECD countries. This suggests that Singapore still has some way to go in catching up with the advanced nations in terms of R&D productivity. This not only means increasing the level of R&D intensity in Singapore but also more efficient exploitation of domestic R&D activity.Economic Growth, R&D Expenditure, Total Factor Productivity

Export and economic growth in Southeast Asia current Newly Industrialized Countries: Evidence from nonparametric approach

Nonlinearity in the nexus of export and economic growth has not been addressed in most of the previous studies. If the true relationship is nonlinear, then inference from linear model may be invalid. This study re-examines the exports-growth nexus in four current Newly Industrialized Countries by nonparametric methodology. Results from Breitung cointegration test show existence of nonlinearities in the cointegration relationship of exports and economic growth in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. With evidences of nonlinearities from cointegration test, nonparametric causality test based on rank series provides more reliable results than conventional linear model. The nonparametric causality test indicates a bilateral causality between exports and economic growth in Malaysia and Thailand. On the contrary, Indonesia support the hypothesis that growth driven exports. This results highlight that export is an engine to economic growth through its multiplier effect but it is not a general rule for all the Newly Industrialized Countries.Export-led growth, Nonparametric, Cointegration, Causality

Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence

Following the 1995-2000 period of more rapid output growth and lower inflation in the United States, economists have strenuously debated whether improvements in economic performance can be sustained. The recession that began in March 2001 intensified the debate, and the economic impacts of the events of September 11 have yet to be fully understood. Both factors add to the considerable uncertainties about future growth that currently face decision makers in both the public and private sectors. ; In this article, the authors analyze the sources of U.S. labor productivity growth in the post-1995 period and present projections for both output and labor productivity growth for the next decade. Despite the 2001 downward revisions to U.S. gross domestic product and software investment, the authors show that information technology (IT) played a substantial role in the U.S. productivity revival. The article then outlines a methodology for projecting trend output and productivity growth. The base-case projection puts the rate of trend productivity growth at 2.21 percent per year over the next decade with a range of 1.33 to 2.92 percent, reflecting fundamental uncertainties about the rate of technological progress in IT-production and investment patterns. The central projection is only slightly below the average growth rate of 2.36 percent during the 1995-2000 period.Productivity ; Technology ; Economic development