Domestic Grain Market Reform In China: The Contribution of Economic Policy Research Funded by ACIAR Revisited

Mullen (2004,2005) conducted an impact assessment of two ACIAR funded economics research projects enquiring into domestic grain market reform in China. The benefit cost ratio to ACIAR was estimated to be in the range 5:1 to 33:1. The impact assessment was conducted when grain policy was viewed as being in a period of retrenchment rather than reform and hence the assessment was ex ante in nature. Since then the methodology for estimating nominal rates of assistance in China has been modified and the late 90s is now seen as a period when reform continued despite the professed policy stance. It seems opportune to revisit Mullen’s original impact assessment to assess the extent of welfare gains actually achieved.impact assessment, China grain market reform, welfare analysis,

Productivity growth and the returns from public investment in R&D in Australian broadacre agriculture

Investment in R&D has long been regarded as an important source of productivity growth in Australian agriculture. Perhaps because research lags are long, current investment in R&D is monitored closely. Investment in R&D has been flat while productivity growth has remained strong, relative both to other sectors of the Australian economy and to the agricultural sectors of other countries. Such productivity growth, at a time when the decline in terms of trade facing Australian farmers has slowed, may have enhanced the competitiveness of Australian agriculture. The econometric results presented here suggest no evidence of a decline in the returns from research from the 15 to 40 per cent per annum range estimated by Mullen and Cox. In fact the marginal impact of research increases with research over the range of investment levels experienced from 1953 to 2000, a finding which lends support to the view that there is underinvestment in agricultural research. These results were obtained from econometric models which maintain strong assumptions about how investments in research and extension translate into changes in TFP. Hence some caution in interpreting the results is warranted.productivity, research and development, research evaluation, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Productivity Growth and the Returns from Public Investment in R&D in Australian Broadacre Agriculture

Investment in R&D has long been regarded as an important source of productivity growth in Australian agriculture. Perhaps because research lags are long, current investment in R&D is monitored closely. Investment in R&D has been flat while productivity growth has remained strong, relative both to other sectors of the Australian economy and to the agricultural sectors of other countries. Such productivity growth, at a time when the decline in terms of trade facing Australian farmers has slowed, may have enhanced the competitiveness of Australian agriculture. The econometric results presented here suggest no evidence of a decline in the returns from research from the 15- 40 percent per annum range estimated by Mullen and Cox. In fact the marginal impact of research increases with research over the range of investment levels experienced from 1953 to 2000, a finding which lends support to the view that there is underinvestment in agricultural research. These results were obtained from econometric models which maintain strong assumptions about how investments in research and extension translate into changes in TFP. Hence some caution in interpreting the results is warranted.Productivity, research and development, research evaluation, Productivity Analysis,

Farming Systems in the Central West of NSW: An Economic Analysis

The objectives of this report have been to describe important farming systems in the Central West of NSW, to gain some insights into current financial performance and to examine in more detail the role of pastures in these farming systems at a time when the profitability of wool growing has been low relative to grain growing. While farms and farming systems vary considerably across the region, a majority can be broadly grouped into a mixed livestock and cropping category. Although there is also significant variability within this category, two representative farms and farming systems were developed for the region with the assistance from a small group of farmers and extension staff from NSW Agriculture. One represents the farms and farming systems east of Condobolin and the other represents the farms and farming systems to the west of Condobolin. Whole-farm budget models have been developed for each to provide a description of the farms in this region and an indication of their current profitability. They are useful to give an indication of how farm income might be altered by the introduction of some new technology, a new enterprise such a pulse crop, or an alternative management practice. This report presents some examples of their application but importantly it has provided a template for the development of additional whole-farm budgets for alternative farming systems in this and other regions. Using the whole-farm budget representing farms east of Condobolin, and a linear programming model, PRISM Condobolin, this report shows that the optimal length of pasture is fairly insensitive to changing market signals for both cropping and livestock commodities. It also shows that although length of pasture is insensitive, the optimal mix of enterprises does change, highlighting the importance of considering the interactions between enterprises in whole-farm analysis.Industrial Organization, Production Economics,

Pricing-to-market in NSW rice export markets

The Ricegrowers’ Cooperative Limited is a single‐desk seller of NSW Japonica rice on the export market. Confidential monthly price data supplied by the Cooperative were used to examine ‘pricing‐to‐market’ in four of its major export markets. The hypothesis of a competitive market was rejected. The Cooperative has been able to vary mark‐ups over different markets and with respect to the importer’s currency in each market. The exchange rate results in particular suggest that the Cooperative has been able to exercise market power to obtain price premiums.Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

Research and Extension Capabilities: Program Economists in New South Wales Agriculture

In 1997 the economists in NSW Agriculture conducting applied economics research at its larger research stations were assigned to the Department's major programs of the Department. This report reviews some of their achievements since that time. The report begins with a section describing the role of Program Economists and their management. Then follows a brief review of the main areas of interest of each of the twelve economists. A large section of the report is devoted to outlining major areas of research and extension where program economists, often working cooperatively, have made a significant contribution. These areas include: Analyses of market conditions for agricultural products; Field crop economics; Grazing and pasture economics; Integrated weed and pest management economics; Farming systems economics; Provision of farm management information; Research and extension evaluation and policy. Aspects reviewed in these areas included the key findings from research, research objectives, future directions of research and for each area, a selection of the most significant publications produced by program economists. The final section of the report is a listing of publications by program economists since 1997. Since then they have written 9 book chapters, 57 refereed journal papers, 23 refereed research bulletins, 40 papers in conference proceedings, 94 invited and contributed conference papers, 56 miscellaneous reports and work papers; and 43 farm management papers.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

An Assessment of the Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of NSW Agriculture's Wheat Breeding Program

The Wagga wheat breeding program has been operating for over 100 years. In that time, it has released a flow of new wheat varieties for wheat growers in south-eastern Australia. Those varieties have led to increases in both yields and grain quality. The average annual rate of yield improvement in NSW has been 3.2% compared to the average for Australia of 2.4% with a significant proportion of these productivity gains arising from new varieties. In this analysis, the investment in that program from 1980 to 2003 has been evaluated. Given the lags inherent in wheat breeding investments, the benefits from those investments are being measured from 1993 to 2020. The broad structure of the program has remained relatively stable for most of the period since 1980. The program consists of 2-3 wheat breeders, one breeder-pathologist, and a cereal chemist, with appropriate technical and field support, totaling approximately 15 full-time equivalents per year. The costs of the program have averaged approximately $1.2 million per year over the period. In assessing the Wagga wheat breeding program it is important to consider how the industry would have developed without the program. The benefits of the program were measured as the difference in returns from improved wheat varieties in NSW over that period and the returns that would have been achieved in the absence of the Wagga breeding program. The assumption used to determine the impact without the Wagga program was that the rate of yield improvement in NSW would have been the same as for the rest of Australia. For quality, without the Wagga program the assumption was that in southern NSW the increase in quality would have been 20$321 million. The economic benefits of the breeding program are shared by producers, processors and consumers in the wheat industry, some of whom live overseas. Because Australia is largely a price taker on world wheat markets and because the wheat processing and distribution sector in Australia is generally considered to be competitive, most of the benefits of the wheat breeding program are likely to remain with producers. However these gains are offset by declines in the world price in response to advancing technology throughout the world. These economic benefits have positive social consequences, largely through their contribution to the incomes of farmers and those who handle and process wheat in regional NSW. Some of these gains are in the form of new marketing and processing industries around the increasingly specialised industry segments resulting directly from the changes that have occurred in wheat varieties. Perhaps these new skills add to the social capital of towns in the wheat belt of NSW. In environmental terms, the wheat breeding program itself is not likely to have major impacts, since the wheat industry would have been very similar whether or not there was a Wagga breeding program. However, to the extent that improved productivity from the Wagga program's varieties has allowed an expansion of the wheat industry, there could be some negative environmental consequences of the breeding program, such as those arising from the clearing of land, increased cultivation and increased use of herbicides. On the other hand, the high levels of disease resistance developed and maintained has meant that wheat production is not associated with large-scale fungicide use, and hence the danger of chemical contamination of the environment is less than it would have been without the resistance developed in this program. Some of these environmental impacts affect the costs and incomes of wheat farmers and hence are reflected in economic benefits and some spill over to the broader community and have not been valued here. It is not clear that these social and environmental impacts would be much different without the Wagga breeding program, except through the extent to which the Wagga program has allowed the wheat industry in NSW to develop more than it otherwise would have. Without the Wagga program the slower gains in yield and quality would also be associated with some social and environmental impacts, and it is the difference that is critical in evaluating the Wagga program. The costs of this program have been met partly by the NSW taxpayers through NSW Agriculture and partly by the grains industry through levies from the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC). The recent introduction of variety royalty payments ("end-point royalties") has not yet led to significant funding, but may be expected to do so in the future. The nature of the outputs of plant breeding programs is that there are large economic benefits that flow directly to producers, processors and consumers in the industry. However the social and environmental impacts on the broader community, while not explicitly valued here, are considered to be small relative to economic benefits and relative to some other programs of NSW Agriculture that have been evaluated. Hence it is appropriate that the industry, though GRDC levies and royalties on production, has increasingly funded the operations of the wheat breeding program. Recent institutional changes for the wheat breeding program have made it even more commercially-based for the future and less reliant on government funding. The new institutional arrangements for wheat breeding programs and the strengthening role of the private sector in supplying varieties traditionally supplied by the public sector mean that the place of public wheat breeding programs is being re-assessed. A key question is whether publicly-operated programs, can offer some additional benefits either to the industry or to the community, which would not result from the complete privatisation of the wheat breeding sector. While those issues have not been addressed directly in this analysis, the results indicate that past investments in public wheat breeding program at Wagga have certainly been a productive use of public funds over the past 20 years or so.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Nonparametric measures of the impact of public research expenditures on Australian broadacre agriculture

Nonparametric methods are used to measure the impact of public research expenditures on Australian broadacre agriculture over the 1953–94 period. Results using both unrestricted and 30‐year lagged specifications of the research impacts on productivity suggest that while certain aspects of the nonparametric multi‐input/output technologies are quite robust to alternative specifications (in particular, the associated Malmquist total factor productivity indexes), other aspects are less stable (in particular, the indexes on input and, to a lesser extent, output biased technical change). Internal rates of return to research expenditures on Australian broadacre agriculture are estimated to be in the 12 per cent to 20 per cent range.Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Trends in Research, Productivity Growth and Competitiveness in Agriculture in New Zealand and Australia

Investment in R&D has long been regarded as an important source of productivity growth in New Zealand and Australian agriculture. Perhaps because research lags are long, current investment in R&D is monitored closely. In this paper trends in public investment in R&D and in productivity growth are reviewed. Investment in R&D has been flat in both countries although in recent years investment in New Zealand has increased. Nevertheless research intensity in Australia has been significantly higher than that in New Zealand. Productivity growth is also likely to have been higher. Econometric evidence about the sources of productivity growth is rarely clear. We develop some scenarios about the importance of domestic and foreign R&D and other sources of productivity growth and find that returns to investments in domestic research in both countries are likely to have been in the order of 15-20 percent.Productivity, research and development, research evaluation, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Irrigated Acreage Projections in Georgia

Irrigated acreage is an important indicator for agricultural water demand which is a major category of water use. Three methodologies were applied in this study to project irrigated acreage of major crops in Georgia from 2010 to 2050. These three methodologies show consistent results. Total irrigated acreage of major crops in Georgia is projected to increase for the next 40 years. The acreage projection results provide useful information for Georgia agricultural policy makers and farmers. However, the methodologies used in the study have some limitations. They can only be used under certain assumptions. Thus, better methodologies are needed for future related research.Irrigated acreage projection, acreage response elasticities, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,