1 research outputs found
Risk management technique of landslides activation with account of seismic activity factor in Kyrgyzstan
ΠΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Π° Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡΡ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠΌ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² Π½Π° ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΠΈΡΠ³ΠΈΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ, ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΠ΅ Π½Π°Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΠΌΡΠΉ ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ, ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ± ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΡΡ ΠΊ Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΌ ΠΆΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π°ΠΌ. ΠΡΠΎ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π΅Ρ Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΎΠ΅ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ, ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π±Π΅Π·ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ, ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΡ. ΠΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΈΠ· Π²Π°ΠΆΠ½Π΅ΠΉΡΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅ΠΉΡΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ. Π¦Π΅Π»Ρ: ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°ΡΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΡ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠΌ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ·ΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΠΉΡΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ Π½Π° ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΠΈΡΠ³ΠΈΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ: Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄ΡΠ½Π°ΡΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ΅ΠΉΡΠΌΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ° ΠΈ ΠΠ»Π°Π²Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΡΠ²Π° ΡΡΠ΅Π·Π²ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠΈΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΠΈΡΠ³ΠΈΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ, ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·. Π Π΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Π° ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠΌ Π½Π° ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² Π² ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΠΈΡΠ³ΠΈΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ Ρ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ΠΉΡΠΌΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π°Π³Π°Π΅Ρ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ², ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΡ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π·Π°ΡΡΠ°Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎ ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΡ ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠ° ΠΎΠΊΡΠΏΠ°Π΅ΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡ. ΠΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΈΠ· ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠ° ΠΎΠΊΡΠΏΠ°Π΅ΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΡΡ ΡΠ°Π½ΠΆΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎ ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ°. ΠΠ»Ρ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π»ΠΈ Π²Π΅ΡΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎ-ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·. Π ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ΅ Π½Π°ΠΉΠ΄Π΅Π½Π° ΠΊΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΠΈΡ Π·Π°Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΠΉΡΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ (ΡΡΠΌΠΌΠ° ΠΌΠ°Π³Π½ΠΈΡΡΠ΄ Π·Π΅ΠΌΠ»Π΅ΡΡΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ), ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·. ΠΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ Π½Π°Π±Π»ΡΠ΄Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ Π»ΠΈΠ½Π΅ΠΉΠ½Π°Ρ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΠΈΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎΠΌ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΡΠΌΠΌΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠ°Π³Π½ΠΈΡΡΠ΄ Π·Π΅ΠΌΠ»Π΅ΡΡΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π² ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΎΠ΄ Ρ 1969 ΠΏΠΎ 2010 Π³Π³. Π² ΠΡΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ, ΠΠ°Π»Π°Π»-ΠΠ±Π°Π΄ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΠ°ΡΠΊΠ΅Π½ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΡΡ
ΠΠΈΡΠ³ΠΈΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ. ΠΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ° ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ΅Π»Π° ΠΡΠΊΠ°Π»Ρ ΠΠ»Π°ΠΉΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΠΉΠΎΠ½Π° ΠΡΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΠΈ ΠΠΈΡΠ³ΠΈΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ ΡΡΠ΄ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΉ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ»Π·Π½Π΅Π²ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ², ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½Π° ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΈ ΠΎΠΊΡΠΏΠ°Π΅ΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΉ. ΠΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ Π»Π΅ΡΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π»ΠΈΠΎΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡ Π·Π°ΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ ΡΡΠΈΡΠ°ΡΡ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΠΉ Ρ ΡΠΎΡΠΊΠΈ Π·ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ·Π΄Π΅ΡΠΆΠ΅ΠΊ.The relevance of the research is caused by the need to manage the risk of landslide processes in Kyrgyzstan, which cause significant economic, environmental and social damage and lead to great loss of life. This is of great importance for sustainable use of natural resources, ensuring the safety of the population, economic and infrastructure facilities. One of the most important factors in the formation of landslide processes is seismic activity. The main aim of the research is to develop a risk management methodology for the activation of landslide processes based on the relationship between landslide processes and seismic activity in the Kyrgyzstan. Methods: data of International Seismological Center and Main Directorate of Ministry of Emergencies of Kyrgyzstan, regression analysis. Results. A risk management technique is proposed on the example of the risk of landslide activation in the natural conditions of Kyrgyzstan, taking into account the seismicity factor. The methodology involves assessing the risk of landslide processes, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of each activities to reduce risk, and evaluating the payback period of each measure. Based on the payback period, the ranking of activities is carried out and the effectiveness of each risk reduction activities is determined. To assess the risk of landslide activation, statistical analysis was used. In this work the correlation of the relationship between landslide processes and seismic activity (the sum of the magnitudes of earthquakes) was found, a regression analysis was performed. It was shown that a satisfactory linear correlation is observed between the number of landslide processes and the sum of earthquake magnitudes from 1969 to 2010 in the Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions of Kyrgyzstan. The risk of landslide processes was assessed for the village of Askaly, Alai district, Osh region of Kyrgyzstan. A number of activities are proposed to reduce the risk of landslide processes, the effectiveness and payback of these activities is evaluated. It is shown that forest reclamation protection can be considered effective in terms of costs