Inter-Temporal Calculative Trust Design to Reduce Collateral Need for Business Credits

Credit rationing arising out of informational asymmetry and lack of collateral is a well-recognised economic constraint in the credit market. These constraints get magnified for small businesses. This paper attempts to capture the dimension of trustworthiness (calculative trust) by designing a multi-period, incentivised payment structure that will induce economic agents to reveal the existence of private information about any projects or true intentions of paying up the credit that is going to fund the project. The model dynamically estimates the collateral needed by taking into account the truthfulness of the borrower. The proposed design is compared with the benchmark model - credit scoring-based model. Randomized simulations are carried out for the ex ante solution for the borrower. We find that the proposed design outperforms from the perspective of lenders when the probability of default of any project is less than 80 per cent. Our simulation result also finds that building trust helps small business owner to significantly reduce the need for collateral

The Invisible Collateral

A borrower may hesitate to borrow from her close relatives and family members as it costs them in terms of reduction in social insurance in the case of default. This invisible cost reduces credit risk. India’s household indebtedness survey shows some evidence on these borrowing preferences. This perspective on borrowing decisions derived from the community can be used as one of the dimensions in credit risk evaluation and in policy formulation

Inflation expectations of households: do they influence wage-price dynamics in India?

This paper examines the usefulness of survey-based measures of inflation expectations to predict inflation using hybrid versions of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). While both 3 months ahead and 1-year ahead inflation expectations of households emerge statistically significant in explaining and predicting inflation in India, effectively they work as substitutes of backward looking expectations given that household expectations are found to be largely adaptive. Unlike in other countries, this paper does not find much evidence on flattening of the Phillips curve. Also, no robust evidence is found on expectations induced wage pressures influen-cing CPI inflation

Bank Capital and Monetary Policy Transmission in India

This paper examines the role of bank capital in monetary policy transmission in India during the post-global financial crisis period. Empirical results show that banks with higher capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) raise funds at a lower cost. Additionally, banks with higher CRAR transmit monetary policy impulses smoothly, while stressed assets in the banking sector hinder transmission. Recapitalization to raise CRAR can improve transmission; however, CRAR above a certain threshold level may not help as the sensitivity of loan growth to monetary policy rate reduces for banks with CRAR above the threshold. Therefore, it can be concluded that monetary policy can influence credit supply of banks depending on their capital position

Bank Capital and Monetary Policy Transmission in India

This paper examines the role of bank capital in monetary policy transmission in India during the post-global financial crisis period. Empirical results show that banks with higher capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) raise funds at a lower cost. Additionally, banks with higher CRAR transmit monetary policy impulses smoothly, while stressed assets in the banking sector hinder transmission. Recapitalization to raise CRAR can improve transmission; however, CRAR above a certain threshold level may not help as the sensitivity of loan growth to monetary policy rate reduces for banks with CRAR above the threshold. Therefore, it can be concluded that monetary policy can influence credit supply of banks depending on their capital position

The Invisible Collateral

A borrower may hesitate to borrow from her close relatives and family members as it costs them in terms of reduction in social insurance in the case of default. This invisible cost reduces credit risk. India’s household indebtedness survey shows some evidence on these borrowing preferences. This perspective on borrowing decisions derived from the community can be used as one of the dimensions in credit risk evaluation and in policy formulation

Inter-Temporal Calculative Trust Design to Reduce Collateral Need for Business Credits

Credit rationing arising out of informational asymmetry and lack of collateral is a well-recognised economic constraint in the credit market. These constraints get magnified for small businesses. This paper attempts to capture the dimension of trustworthiness (calculative trust) by designing a multi-period, incentivised payment structure that will induce economic agents to reveal the existence of private information about any projects or true intentions of paying up the credit that is going to fund the project. The model dynamically estimates the collateral needed by taking into account the truthfulness of the borrower. The proposed design is compared with the benchmark model - credit scoring-based model. Randomized simulations are carried out for the ex ante solution for the borrower. We find that the proposed design outperforms from the perspective of lenders when the probability of default of any project is less than 80 per cent. Our simulation result also finds that building trust helps small business owner to significantly reduce the need for collateral

Inflation expectations of households: do they influence wage-price dynamics in India?

This paper examines the usefulness of survey-based measures of inflation expectations to predict inflation using hybrid versions of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). While both 3 months ahead and 1-year ahead inflation expectations of households emerge statistically significant in explaining and predicting inflation in India, effectively they work as substitutes of backward looking expectations given that household expectations are found to be largely adaptive. Unlike in other countries, this paper does not find much evidence on flattening of the Phillips curve. Also, no robust evidence is found on expectations induced wage pressures influen-cing CPI inflation