Does density drive development?

Research Reporthere is growing interest among governments and researchers around the world in the contribution of cities to economic development. Several influential international organisations have argued that the spatial concentration of economic activity is necessary for faster economic growth. This paper examines whether the density of population and economic activity influences the rate of local economic growth in South Africa. Municipalities are the basic units of analysis and the time frame is 1996-2010. Contrary to expectations, no statistically significant relationship is found between density and growth across the full range of 237 local municipalities. However, searching hard for a relationship among particular kinds of municipality, some evidence does emerge. The influence of human skills on local growth is also examined and is found to be more robust than density. Several reasons are given for why the relationship between density and growth is generally weak or non-existent.NRF and Prof. Philip Harrison, the South African Research Chair in Development Planning and Modelling in the School of Architecture and Planning at the University of the Witwatersrand for their financial and other support for this stud

Does density drive development?

Research ReportThere is growing interest among governments and researchers around the world in the contribution of cities to economic development. Several influential international organisations have argued that the spatial concentration of economic activity is necessary for faster economic growth. This paper examines whether the density of population and economic activity influences the rate of local economic growth in South Africa. Municipalities are the basic units of analysis and the time frame is 1996-2010. Contrary to expectations, no statistically significant relationship is found between density and growth across the full range of 237 local municipalities. However, searching hard for a relationship among particular kinds of municipality, some evidence does emerge. The influence of human skills on local growth is also examined and is found to be more robust than density. Several reasons are given for why the relationship between density and growth is generally weak or non-existent.NR

The growth implications of Agglomeration in South Africa, 1996-2010

Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.The paper investigates whether the spatial distribution of economic activity in South Africa is static or evolving. Testing Gibrat’s Law to determine this, results suggest growth patterns in South Africa have been divergent over the period 1996-2010. The share of population, employment and GVA in the largest municipalities has been increasing relative to the shares in smaller municipalities