5 research outputs found
Forecasting yields, prices and net returns for main cereal crops in Tanzania as probability distributions: A multivariate empirical (MVE) approach
Maize (Zea mays L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) and rice (Oryza sativa) are essential staple crops to the livelihoods of many Tanzanians. But the future productivity of these crops is highly uncertain due to many factors including overdependence on rain-fed, poor agricultural practices and climate change and variability. Despite the multiple risks and constraints, it is vital to highlight the pathways of cereal production in the country. Understanding the pathways of cereals helps to inform policymakers, so they can make better decisions to improve the viability of the sector and its potential to increase food production and income for the majority population. In this study, we employ a Monte Carlo simulation approach to develop a multivariate empirical (MVE) distribution model to simulate stochastic variables for main cereal crops in Tanzania. Eleven years (2008–2018) of yields and prices data for maize, sorghum and rice were used in the model to simulate and forecast yields and prices in Dodoma and Morogoro regions of Tanzania for a seven-year period, from 2019 to 2025. Dodoma and Morogoro regions represent semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones, respectively. The simulated yields and prices were used with total costs and total area harvested for each crop to calculate the probable net present value (NPV) for each agro-ecological zone. The results on crop yield show a slightly increasing trend for all three crops in Dodoma region. Likewise, rice yield is expected to marginally increase in Morogoro with a decreasing trend for maize and sorghum, meanwhile, the prices for the three crops all are projected to increase for the two regions. Generally, the results on economic feasibility in terms of NPV revealed a high probability of success for all the crops in Dodoma despite a higher relative risk for rice. The results in Morogoro presented a high probability of success for rice and sorghum with maize indicating the highest relative risk, and a 2.41% probability of negative NPV. This study helps to better understand the outlook of the main cereal crop sub-sectors in two agro-ecological zones of Tanzania over the next seven years. With high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, production of main cereals in Tanzania are likely to face a high degree of risk and uncertainty threatening livelihoods, incomes and foo
Climate Change Perceptions by Smallholder Coffee Farmers in the Northern and Southern Highlands of Tanzania
Smallholder farmers are among the most vulnerable groups to climate change. Efforts to enhance farmers’ adaptation to climate change are hindered by lack of information on how they are experiencing and responding to climate change. Therefore, this paper examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, factors influencing their perceptions, and the impacts and adaptation strategies adopted over the past three to four decades. A list of farmers was obtained from the Agricultural Marketing Cooperative Society (AMCOS) and filtered on the basis of age and farming experience. In order to explore factors influencing household perceptions of climate change, a structured questionnaire was administered to the randomly selected household heads. Data on rainfall and temperature were acquired from Lyamungo and Burka Coffee estate (Northern Highlands zone) and Mbimba and Mbinga (Southern Highlands zone) offices of the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) with the exception of data from Burka Coffee estate, which were acquired from a private operator. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to analyze the data. Farmers’ perceptions were consistent with meteorological data both pointing to significant decline in rainfall and increase in temperature since 1979. Factors such as level of education, farming experience, and access to climate information influenced farmers’ perception on climate change aspects. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance timely and accurate weather information delivery along with developing institutions responsible for education and extension services provision. The focus of education or training should be on attenuating the impacts of climate change through relevant adaptation measures in each coffee-growing region
Assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural systems in Eastern Africa while enhancing the region’s capacity to undertake integrated assessment of vulnerabilities to future changes in climate
One
of the key messages emerging out of the recent IPCC reports is that the climate change is real,
happening and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future
,
irrespective of
what happens to future
greenhouse gas emissions
. The report also estimates wi
th high confidence that the negative impacts on
agriculture outweigh the positives which makes adaptation an urgent and pressing challenge. However,
adaptation planning requires accurate information about where, when and how the impacts are going to
be fel
t and who will be more vulnerable.
Among the regions, Africa is considered as more vulnerable due
to its high dependence on agriculture for subsistence, employment and income. In Eastern Africa,
agriculture accounts for 43% of GDP and contributes to more than 80% employment (Omano et al. 20
06).
Within Africa,
Eastern Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions due to its high dependence on
rain
-
fed
agriculture for subsistence, employment and income. The region
experiences high variability in rainfall
(Webster et al., 1999, Hastenrath et al.
, 2007)
which has a direct bearing on
the
performance of
agriculture. Generally the region experiences prolonged and highly destructive droughts covering large
areas at least once every decade and more
localized
events
even
more frequently.
The region reco
rded
severe droughts and/or famines in 1973
-
74, 1984
-
85, 1987, 1992
-
94, 1999
-
2000, 2005
-
2006 and more
recently in 2010
-
11. According to UNDP (2006), a single drought event in a 12
-
year period will lower GDP
by 7%
–
10% and increase poverty by 12%
–
14%. Extrem
e events, including floods and droughts, are
becoming increasingly frequent and severe (IPCC 2007). Based on
the
analysis of data from the
international Disaster Database (EM
-
DAT), Shongwe et al. (2009)
concluded that
there has been an
increase in the numb
er of reported disasters in the region, from an average of less than 3 events per year
in the 1980s to over 7 events per year in the 1990s and 10 events per year from 2000 to 2006. The negative
impacts of climate are not limited to the years with extreme c
limatic conditions. Even with normal rainfall,
the countries in the region do not produce enough food to meet their people’s needs. Left unmanaged,
these impacts can have far
-
reaching consequences on the local food security, economy, and poverty.
Over the
past few years,
climate research has contributed significantly to
increased
understanding
of how
the
climate
in
the region
is
var
ying
on inter
-
annual and decadal time scales and
on
how
the climate is
changing
in response to global warming and other factors
. The
impacts of this variability and changes in
climate on various sectors including agriculture have also received considerable attention
.
These studies
indicate that a
griculture, especially the one practiced under rainfed
conditions in moisture limiting
environments such as semi
-
arid tropics
,
is one of the most vulnerable sectors
since
these are relatively
warmer places and rainfall is the only source of water.
There is a rapidly growing literature on vulnerability
and adaptation to climatic variability
and change
,
but most of these
studies
are based on
assessments
made using
statistical and empirical models that fail to account
for
the
full range of complex interactions
and
their effects on agricultural systems
(Parry et al., 2004; Cline, 2007; Lobell e
t al., 2008).
Evidence
available to date
indicate
s
that w
ith 1°C of warming, roughly 65% of current maize growing areas in Africa
will experience yield losses (Lobell et al., 2011)
and the average
predicted production loss
es
by 2050 for
most crops are in t
he ra
n
ge of 10
-
25%
(Schlenker and Lobell, 2010)
.
For
developing and implementing
adaptation programs, more detailed information about
the impacts of
climate change on various components of the smallholder farming systems
such as which crops and
varieties
are more vulnerable and which management practices are unviable is
required
.
This requires
a
comprehensive
assessment using site and location specific climate and crop management information.
However, s
everal problems
constrain
such an assessment. Firstly,
downscaled local level climate change
projections
that are required to make such assessments are not readily available
.
While climate models
provide various scenarios with high levels of confidence at global and sub
-
regional level,
there are
challenges in
downscaling
them to
local level
(IPCC, 2007)
. Secondly,
lack of information on
the sensitivity
of smallholder
agricultural systems
to changes in climate
.
Though process based
crop simulation models
can serve as
important
tools to make
a
more realistic assessment of
impacts of climate variability and
change
on agricultural systems,
application of the same is limited to few location specific studies mainly
because of the intensive data requirements and practical limitations including capaci
ty to calibrate,
validate and perform detailed analyses.
Thirdly, there is scarcity of information on how the impacts of
climate change on the production and productivity
of agriculture
translate into economic impacts
including food security at household a
nd national levels.
This assessment is
aimed at developing more
accurate information on how the projected changes in
climate impact
the
productivity and profitability of agricultural systems that are widely adopted
by
smallholder farmers
in Eastern Africa
using
the
protocols and methods developed by
Agricultural Model
Intercomparision and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
(Rosenzweig et al., 2013)
.
One key aspect of this
assessment is the attention paid
to
captur
e
the
complexity and
diversity
that exists in the
s
mallholder
farm
ing systems
including
the different ways in which th
e system
is managed.
The study
is an
attempt to
make a
comprehensive assessment of climate
change on
crop
growth and performance
under conditions
that
interactions
as well as
related economic impacts
by
integrat
ing
state of the
art downscal
ed
climate
scenarios with crop and economic models.
Th
e assessment was
carried out
in contrasting
agro
-
ecological
zones
spread over the four major countries in eastern Africa
–
Ethiopia, Keny
a, Tanzania and Uganda. This
report
summarizes
the findings that include
trends and changes
in
the observed and downscaled climate
scenarios, quantified
information on
impacts of
these trends and changes
on performance of
maize
under
a range of
environment
al
and management
conditions,
implication
of
these
changes
in crop performance
on
in
come, poverty and food security of smallholder farmers
and potential adaptation strategies that can
assist smallholder farmers in
minimizing negative impacts
.AgMI
Assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural systems in Eastern Africa while enhancing the region’s capacity to undertake integrated assessment of vulnerabilities to future changes in climate
One
of the key messages emerging out of the recent IPCC reports is that the climate change is real,
happening and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future
,
irrespective of
what happens to future
greenhouse gas emissions
. The report also estimates wi
th high confidence that the negative impacts on
agriculture outweigh the positives which makes adaptation an urgent and pressing challenge. However,
adaptation planning requires accurate information about where, when and how the impacts are going to
be fel
t and who will be more vulnerable.
Among the regions, Africa is considered as more vulnerable due
to its high dependence on agriculture for subsistence, employment and income. In Eastern Africa,
agriculture accounts for 43% of GDP and contributes to more than 80% employment (Omano et al. 20
06).
Within Africa,
Eastern Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions due to its high dependence on
rain
-
fed
agriculture for subsistence, employment and income. The region
experiences high variability in rainfall
(Webster et al., 1999, Hastenrath et al.
, 2007)
which has a direct bearing on
the
performance of
agriculture. Generally the region experiences prolonged and highly destructive droughts covering large
areas at least once every decade and more
localized
events
even
more frequently.
The region reco
rded
severe droughts and/or famines in 1973
-
74, 1984
-
85, 1987, 1992
-
94, 1999
-
2000, 2005
-
2006 and more
recently in 2010
-
11. According to UNDP (2006), a single drought event in a 12
-
year period will lower GDP
by 7%
–
10% and increase poverty by 12%
–
14%. Extrem
e events, including floods and droughts, are
becoming increasingly frequent and severe (IPCC 2007). Based on
the
analysis of data from the
international Disaster Database (EM
-
DAT), Shongwe et al. (2009)
concluded that
there has been an
increase in the numb
er of reported disasters in the region, from an average of less than 3 events per year
in the 1980s to over 7 events per year in the 1990s and 10 events per year from 2000 to 2006. The negative
impacts of climate are not limited to the years with extreme c
limatic conditions. Even with normal rainfall,
the countries in the region do not produce enough food to meet their people’s needs. Left unmanaged,
these impacts can have far
-
reaching consequences on the local food security, economy, and poverty.
Over the
past few years,
climate research has contributed significantly to
increased
understanding
of how
the
climate
in
the region
is
var
ying
on inter
-
annual and decadal time scales and
on
how
the climate is
changing
in response to global warming and other factors
. The
impacts of this variability and changes in
climate on various sectors including agriculture have also received considerable attention
.
These studies
indicate that a
griculture, especially the one practiced under rainfed
conditions in moisture limiting
environments such as semi
-
arid tropics
,
is one of the most vulnerable sectors
since
these are relatively
warmer places and rainfall is the only source of water.
There is a rapidly growing literature on vulnerability
and adaptation to climatic variability
and change
,
but most of these
studies
are based on
assessments
made using
statistical and empirical models that fail to account
for
the
full range of complex interactions
and
their effects on agricultural systems
(Parry et al., 2004; Cline, 2007; Lobell e
t al., 2008).
Evidence
available to date
indicate
s
that w
ith 1°C of warming, roughly 65% of current maize growing areas in Africa
will experience yield losses (Lobell et al., 2011)
and the average
predicted production loss
es
by 2050 for
most crops are in t
he ra
n
ge of 10
-
25%
(Schlenker and Lobell, 2010)
.
For
developing and implementing
adaptation programs, more detailed information about
the impacts of
climate change on various components of the smallholder farming systems
such as which crops and
varieties
are more vulnerable and which management practices are unviable is
required
.
This requires
a
comprehensive
assessment using site and location specific climate and crop management information.
However, s
everal problems
constrain
such an assessment. Firstly,
downscaled local level climate change
projections
that are required to make such assessments are not readily available
.
While climate models
provide various scenarios with high levels of confidence at global and sub
-
regional level,
there are
challenges in
downscaling
them to
local level
(IPCC, 2007)
. Secondly,
lack of information on
the sensitivity
of smallholder
agricultural systems
to changes in climate
.
Though process based
crop simulation models
can serve as
important
tools to make
a
more realistic assessment of
impacts of climate variability and
change
on agricultural systems,
application of the same is limited to few location specific studies mainly
because of the intensive data requirements and practical limitations including capaci
ty to calibrate,
validate and perform detailed analyses.
Thirdly, there is scarcity of information on how the impacts of
climate change on the production and productivity
of agriculture
translate into economic impacts
including food security at household a
nd national levels.
This assessment is
aimed at developing more
accurate information on how the projected changes in
climate impact
the
productivity and profitability of agricultural systems that are widely adopted
by
smallholder farmers
in Eastern Africa
using
the
protocols and methods developed by
Agricultural Model
Intercomparision and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
(Rosenzweig et al., 2013)
.
One key aspect of this
assessment is the attention paid
to
captur
e
the
complexity and
diversity
that exists in the
s
mallholder
farm
ing systems
including
the different ways in which th
e system
is managed.
The study
is an
attempt to
make a
comprehensive assessment of climate
change on
crop
growth and performance
under conditions
that
interactions
as well as
related economic impacts
by
integrat
ing
state of the
art downscal
ed
climate
scenarios with crop and economic models.
Th
e assessment was
carried out
in contrasting
agro
-
ecological
zones
spread over the four major countries in eastern Africa
–
Ethiopia, Keny
a, Tanzania and Uganda. This
report
summarizes
the findings that include
trends and changes
in
the observed and downscaled climate
scenarios, quantified
information on
impacts of
these trends and changes
on performance of
maize
under
a range of
environment
al
and management
conditions,
implication
of
these
changes
in crop performance
on
in
come, poverty and food security of smallholder farmers
and potential adaptation strategies that can
assist smallholder farmers in
minimizing negative impacts
.AgMI