Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality

Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what happens to the results produced by the P/F ratio method as each of these three assumptions is violated, first independently, and then concurrently. These investigations are important given the generally poor quality of census data collected in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and the radically altering demographic conditions associated with a generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region.AIDS/HIV, developing countries, estimation, fertility, indirect techniques

Design dis-integration Silent, Partial, and Disparate Design

Michael Porter’s frameworks for analysing and planning competitive differentiation (Porter 1980, 1985) are established ‘textbook’ tools, widely taught to business students today. As the claim of design’s strategic importance is increasingly heard, we ask where does design fit in established strategy thinking? This paper documents a proposed conceptual model based on Porter’s value chain model for strategic planning. The concept outlined is the result of the first stage of a larger study of design’s potential role at strategic level and the difficulties faced by organisations in exploiting design strategically. This exploratory phase comprised a review of literature on design management and models of strategy, followed by nineteen interviews with senior design professionals. These then informed a novel revision of the value chain diagram reflecting the strategic role of design, and the identification of three key phenomena concerning design integration (silent design, partial design and disparate design). These phenomena are also represented in modified versions of the value chain. This overall project follows a research approach based on the design research method and on procedural action research, and aims to develop a tool or method to help organisations increase design integration. This project is ongoing, and the results will be published separately. Keywords: Strategic; value chain; silent; partial; disparate; integrated</p

Trends and Design Relating literature to industry practice

In a crowded market place, where technology and functionality are not enough to differentiate a product from its competitors, the product’s appearance is a major driver of consumer preference. But preferences change over time, and product forms need to reflect this in order to stay relevant. This paper addresses the usage of trends by designers to inform the design and evolution of their products. Published theory regarding trends in product form exists in the fashion and consumer behaviour domains, but not in direct relation to the design of consumer products. This paper is preceded by a synthesis of literature in adjacent fields and compares the literature understanding with real industrial practice. Interviews with 9 professionals in trend research, design consultancy, furniture, fashion and architecture, were undertaken to explore the value and usage of trends across a variety of creative fields. The interview data were used to corroborate and enhance the literature understanding. In addition, the study also provides some emerging comparisons between design disciplines. The product designers interviewed were unlikely to use formal trend research methods: inspiration, tacit knowledge and experience accounts for much of their creative output. However, trend consultancies have developed methods of identifying and using trends to develop products for 5-10 years in the future. The fashion industry also has established ways of to rapidly identify or predict trend information. Keywords: Product form; trends; fashion; foresight</p

Dispensing with marriage: Marital and partnership trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2000-2006

This paper describes marriage and partnership patterns and trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa from 2000-2006. The study is based on longitudinal, population-based data collected by the Africa Centre demographic surveillance system. We consider whether the high rates of non-marriage among Africans in South Africa reported in the 1980s were reversed following the political transformation underway by the 1990s. Our findings show that marriage has continued to decline with a small increase in cohabitation among unmarried couples, particularly in more urbanised areas. Comparing surveillance and census data, we highlight problems with the use of the ‘living together’ marital status category in a highly mobile population.cohabitation, demographic surveillance system, marriage, partnerships, South Africa, trends

Understanding and classifying the role of design demonstrators in scientific exploration

This paper describes the development of a model for classifying the different type of ‘design demonstrator’ that might be used in translating scientific activity from the laboratory to the market. Two detailed case studies are described in which designers worked closely with scientists. In one of the projects, the scientists were seeking to commercialise their research. In the other, the research was at an early stage and the scientists had not considered commercialisation. Different types of physical artefact produced in these collaborative projects were analysed to identify the extent to which they might contribute to science, technology, application or market. Evidence indicates that demonstrators might fulfil multiple purposes and that the translation from science to market is more complicated than is often shown in linear models. An original classification of the role of demonstrators through this journey is provided.This work was funded by the United Kingdom’s Engineering and Physical Sciences Research, [Grant Number EP/E001769/1]

Governor William Moultrie to South Carolina Congress Delegates, July 30, 1785

Governor William Moultrie wrote from Charleston to the South Carolina Congress Delegates, addressed to New York. He had recieved their letter and said the first part would be answered by George Abbot Hall who was on his way to New York via Philadelphia. He wrote about treaties with Native American tribes, in particular, the Cherokee and how that would affect them, Georgia, and North Carolina. He also mentioned work being done by Dr. Ramsay, George Meade and Captain Tate.https://digitalcommons.kean.edu/lhc_1780s/1115/thumbnail.jp

William Moultrie to John Kean, March 29, 1786

William Moultrie wrote to the South Carolina Delegate, addressed to New York. This was presumably received by John Kean. It describes an act of the South Carolina legislature incorporating local citizens who entered into a subscription for opening an inland navigation between Sentee and Cooper Rivers. The company has chosen 21 Directors and Moultrie is President. He requests that Colonel Tenff. [sic] returns to South Carolina as soon as he retuns from Europe. Enclosed was an advertisement for enslaved people (not present) that he asks that delegates to make public.https://digitalcommons.kean.edu/lhc_1780s/1026/thumbnail.jp

Instructional resources for social studies in the fourth grades, Charleston, South Carolina

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston Universit