2 research outputs found
Analysis of The Impact of Diabetes on The Dynamical Transmission of Tuberculosis
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health problem. A possible risk factor for TB is
diabetes (DM), which is predicted to increase dramatically over the next two decades,
particularly in low and middle income countries, where TB is widespread. This study aimed
to assess the strength of the association between TB and DM. We present a deterministic
model for TB in a community in order to determine the impact of DM in the spread of the
disease. The important mathematical features of the TB model are thoroughly investigated.
The epidemic threshold known as the basic reproduction number and equilibria for the model
are determined and stabilities analyzed. The model is numerically analyzed to assess the
impact of DM on the transmission dynamics of TB. We perform sensitivity analysis on the
key parameters that drive the disease dynamics in order to determine their relative
importance to disease transmission and prevalence. Numerical simulations suggest that DM
enhances the TB transmission and progression to active TB in a community. The results
suggest that there is a need for increased attention to intervention strategies such as
the chemoprophylaxis of TB latent individuals and treatment of active TB in people with
DM, which may include testing for suspected diabetes, improved glucose control, and
increased clinical and therapeutic monitoring in order to reduce the burden of the
disease
Analysis of a tuberculosis model with undetected and lost-sight cases
International audienceA deterministic model of tuberculosis (TB) in sub-Saharan Africa including undetected and lost-sight cases is presented and analyzed. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurca-tion, when a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibrium points when the associated basic reproduction number (R 0) is less than unity. Analyzing the model obviously reveals that exogenous reinfection plays a key role on the existence of backward bifurcation. However, an analysis of the ranges of exogenous reinfection suggested that backward bifurcation occurs only for very high and unrealistic ranges of the exogeneous reinfection rate. Random perturbation of reinfection rates was performed to gain insight into the role of this latter on the stability of the disease free equilibrium