An Information Approach to the Dynamics in Farm Income: Implications for Farmland Markets

The valuation of farmland is a perennial issue for agricultural policy, given its importance in the farm investment portfolio. Despite the significance of farmland values to farmer wealth, prediction remains a difficult task. This study develops a dynamic information measure to examine the informational content of income to farmland in explaining the distribution of farmland values over time.information theory; farmland markets; farm income

VERTICAL INTEGRATION AND TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF SUGAR

The degree of vertical integration in the U.S. sugar industry between raw sugar processing and sugar refining cannot be explained using theories of vertical integration based on transaction costs (e.g. Williamson). We graphically decompose the economic rents accruing to each level in the marketing channel. Different strategies of several major sugar producing, processing and refining entities with regard to sugar quota policy are explored.Agribusiness, Industrial Organization,

A HYPERBOLIC TANGENT YIELD FUNCTION OF FLORIDA CITRUS

This study models Florida citrus production as a function of the age profile of a given tree stock. The age relationship is estimated using a modified hyperbolic tangent function and the parameters is solved by Spatial Process Models and Maximum Likelihood approach. The estimation is based on the production data of four citrus varieties in 25 regions of Florida from 1992 to 2005. The results show smooth S-shaped yield curves of Florida citrus. This analysis offers yield function of citrus as the first step for statistical modeling of the risks associated with citrus cancers aimed at pricing insurance rates.yield function, citrus, hyperbolic tangent, insurance, spatial autoregressive, Demand and Price Analysis,

The Effect of Consumption Based Taxes on Agriculture in the United States

Recently several proposals have arisen to replace the current income tax system in the United States with a consumption based or Fair Tax. This study investigates the effect of such a consumption based tax on agricultural investment decisions using stochastic optimal control to model the investment decision at the farm level. The results indicate that a consumption tax rate of 25.9 percent would be equivalent to the income tax rate paid by very large producers in the United States.Public Economics,

The Trouble with the MDGs: Confronting Expectations of Aid and Development Success

Growing concern that the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) will not be achieved by 2015 should not obscure the bigger picture that development progress has been occurring at unprecedented levels over the past thirty or more years. At the same time, the MDGs may perhaps create an unnecessary pessimism toward aid by labeling many development successes as failures. The first MDG of halving the number of people living in poverty will probably be met globally, but for most developing countries to achieve this at the national level, the growth rates required are at the bounds of historical precedent. Additionally, there appears to be only a weak relationship between aid and rapid economic growth. A similar problem holds for many of the other education and health goals. For many countries, the rates of progress required to meet the MDGs by 2015 are extremely high compared to historical experience and there is only a tenuous relationship between expenditure and outcomes. Nevertheless, estimates that an additional $50 billion in aid per year is necessary to meet the MDGs are frequently misinterpreted to suggest that it is also sufficient. Most of the goals are unlikely to be reached, but this will probably not be due primarily to shortfalls in aid. This is in part because development is a long-term and complex process dependent on relieving more than a supply-side constraint on resources. Aid remains vital and contributes to development progress, but even considerable increases in aid are unlikely to buy these particular goals. Goal setting is also useful, but continuing to suggest that the MDGs can be met may undermine future constituencies for aid (in donors) and reform (in recipients). The MDGs might be better viewed not as realistic targets but as reminders of the stark contrast between the world we want and the world we have, and a call to redouble our search for interventions to close the gap.Millennium Development Goals poverty economic growth

Using APT to Assess the Impact of Farm Policy on Agribusiness Stocks

This study investigates the impact of differing U. S. Farm Policy regimes on the stock prices of publicly traded agribusinesses. Following the Roll and Ross approach, we apply a two step Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM). We analyze the effect of agricultural policy on returns to agribusiness by applying a modified APM to agricultural returns to test for the presence of an agribusiness premium or discount. We further augment our analysis by dividing the sample into two time periods around the implementation of the 1996. The differences in agribusiness premium can then be tested using a paired t-test. The empirical evidence lends support to a switch from negative returns to agribusiness stocks pre-FAIR Act to positive returns to agribusiness stocks after its enactment.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy,

QUANTIFYING GAINS TO RISK DIVERSIFICATION USING CERTAINTY EQUIVALENCE IN A MEAN-VARIANCE MODEL: AN APPLICATION TO FLORIDA CITRUS

The marginal benefit and cost of diversification for Florida orange producers is analyzed using certainty equivalents. Results indicate that for moderate and high levels of risk aversion, diversification into strawberry, grapefruit, or additional orange production is not optimal. However, moderately risk averse Florida orange producers can gain by diversifying into grapefruit production if the annual amortized fixed costs can be reduced by as little as 10 percent.Risk and Uncertainty,

Farm Income, Population, and Farmland Prices: A Relative Information Approach

This paper uses an entropy-based information approach to determine if farmland values are more closely associated with urban pressure or farm income. The basic question is: how much information on changes in farm real estate values is contained in changes in population versus changes in returns to production agriculture? Results suggest population is informative, but changes in farmland values are more strongly associated with changes in the distribution of returns. However, this relationship is not true for every region nor does it hold over time, as for some regions changes in population are more informative. Results have policy implications for both equity and efficiency.entropy; land values; information theory; population growth.

Factors Determining 2001 Standardized Elementary Level Reading Scores in Michigan

Elementary level reading comprehension is an essential skill which students need in order to excel in secondary school as well as undergraduate level language courses. Using a dataset from 4th grade standardized reading scores from Michigan in 2001, and controlling for district and local level effects, we find that standardized reading score pass rates per school are dependent on standardized math score rates as well as the rate of students who are receiving free lunch passes. Reading and math scores are highly correlated and can be used to roughly estimate the other

Natural Disasters and the Yield Curve of Florida Valencias

Crop Production/Industries,