2 research outputs found
ΠΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ
Background: It seems relevant to study the contribution of socio-demographic, somatic and obstetric-gynecological factors in the implementation of preterm birth.
Aims: Assessment of the prognostic significance of socio-demographic, obstetric-gynecological and somatic factors in the prediction of preterm birth and associated adverse pregnancy outcomes with subsequent validation of the prognostic model.
Materials and methods: Cohort study with a mixed cohort. A retrospective assessment of socio-demographic factors, harmful habits, obstetric and gynecological pathology, somatic diseases, course and outcomes of pregnancy was carried out with the assessment of the status of newborns in 1246 women with subsequent construction of a predictive model of preterm birth and adverse outcomes of pregnancy using Regression with Optimal Scaling and its prospective validation in 100 women. Results: The most significant predictors, that increase the chance of preterm birth and adverse pregnancy outcomes, were history of premature birth, irregular monitoring during pregnancy, history of pelvic inflammatory disease, smoking, obesity, the onset of sexual activity up to 16 years, cardiovascular and endocrine diseases. Intellectual job reduced the chance of preterm birth and adverse pregnancy outcomes This multivariate predictive model has a diagnostic value. The score of risk factors 25 points had a sensitivity of 73%, a specificity of 71%, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) 0.76 (good quality), p0.001. After stratification of high-risk groups by maternal and perinatal pathology the following list of diagnostic and therapeutic measures is introduced and actively implemented in antenatal clinics. To stratificate this model, we prospectively analyze the course and pregnancy outcomes of 100 women divided into 2 groups: group 1 β 50 women with preterm delivery, group 2 β 50 women with term delivery. A total score of 25 and above had 44% of women in group 1 and only 10% of women in group 2 (sensitivity 81.4%, specificity 61.6%, positive predictive value 44%, negative predictive value 90%, positive likelihood ratio 2.2 [1.53.0], negative likelihood ratio 0.3 [0.130.68]).
Conclusions: We have proposed a model for predicting preterm birth and delivery and perinatal losses using the available characteristics of pregnant women from early pregnancy with moderate indicators of diagnostic value. Further validation of the model in the general population of pregnant women is required.ΠΠ±ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Π°ΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΠΈΠ·ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π²ΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Π° ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎ-Π΄Π΅ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
, ΡΠΎΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈ Π°ΠΊΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΊΠΎ-Π³ΠΈΠ½Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² Π² ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ².
Π¦Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ β ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ° Π·Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎ-Π΄Π΅ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
, Π°ΠΊΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΊΠΎ-Π³ΠΈΠ½Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈ ΡΠΎΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² Π² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
Ρ Π½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π½Π΅Π±Π»Π°Π³ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Ρ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ Π²Π°Π»ΠΈΠ΄ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ.
ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ. ΠΠΎΠ³ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠΎ ΡΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ°Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ². ΠΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠ»Π°ΡΡ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½Π°Ρ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ° ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎ-Π΄Π΅ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ², Π²ΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²ΡΡΠ΅ΠΊ, ΡΠΎΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
Π·Π°Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ, Π³ΠΈΠ½Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠ°ΡΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠΈ, ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΠΎΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
Ρ 1246 ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ½ Ρ ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Π½Π΅Π±Π»Π°Π³ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° Ρ ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΡΠΊΠ°Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΈ Π²Π°Π»ΠΈΠ΄ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Ρ 100 ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ½.
Π Π΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ. ΠΠ°ΠΈΠ±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΠΊΡΠΎΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ, ΡΠ²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΠΊ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Π½Π΅Π±Π»Π°Π³ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π»ΠΈΡΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π² Π°Π½Π°ΠΌΠ½Π΅Π·Π΅, Π½Π΅ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ Π½Π°Π±Π»ΡΠ΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π²ΠΎ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, Π²ΠΎΡΠΏΠ°Π»ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ Π·Π°Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΎΠ² ΠΌΠ°Π»ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·Π° Π² Π°Π½Π°ΠΌΠ½Π΅Π·Π΅, ΠΊΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅, ΠΎΠΆΠΈΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅, Π½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΠΆΠΈΠ·Π½ΠΈ Π΄ΠΎ 16 Π»Π΅Ρ, ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΄Π΅ΡΠ½ΠΎ-ΡΠΎΡΡΠ΄ΠΈΡΡΡΠ΅ ΠΈ ΡΠ½Π΄ΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠ½Π½ΡΠ΅ Π·Π°Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ. ΠΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π΄Π»Π΅ΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΊ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π»Π»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ΅, Π½Π°ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠΎΡ, ΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π»Π° ΡΠΈΡΠΊ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
Ρ Π½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π½Π΅Π±Π»Π°Π³ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ². ΠΠ°Π½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΠΌΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π»Π° Π΄ΠΈΠ°Π³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ. ΠΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ 25 ΠΈ Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅ Π±Π°Π»Π»ΠΎΠ² ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π»Π° ΡΡΠ²ΡΡΠ²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ 73%, ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ 71%, ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠ°Π΄Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ ROC-ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠΉ (AUC) 0,76 (ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ Ρ
ΠΎΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π΅), Ρ0,001. ΠΠΎΡΠ»Π΅ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏ Π²ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΏΠΎ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠ°ΡΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠΈ Π² ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π²Π½Π΅Π΄ΡΠ΅Π½ ΠΈ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΡΡ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½Ρ Π΄ΠΈΠ°Π³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈ Π»Π΅ΡΠ΅Π±Π½ΠΎ-ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ»Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΉ. Π‘ ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Ρ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΈ ΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Ρ 100 ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ½, ΡΠ°Π·Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π½Π° 2 Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΡ ΠΏΠΎ 50 ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠ²Π΅ΠΊ, ΡΡΡ Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΈΠ»Π°ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ. Π Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠ΅ 1 ΡΡΠΌΠΌΠ°ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π±Π°Π»Π» 25 ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π»ΠΈ 44% ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ½, Π² Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠ΅ 2 β ΡΠΎΠ»ΡΠΊΠΎ 10% ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ½ (ΡΡΠ²ΡΡΠ²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ 81,4%, ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ 61,6%, ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ 44%, ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ 90%, ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π΄ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡ 2,2 [1,53,0], ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π΄ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡ 0,3 [0,130,68]).
ΠΠ°ΠΊΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅. ΠΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Π° ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ Ρ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π΄ΠΎΡΡΡΠΏΠ½ΡΡ
Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊ Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ½ Ρ ΡΠ°Π½Π½ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ² Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Ρ ΡΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠΌΠΈ Π΄ΠΈΠ°Π³Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ. Π’ΡΠ΅Π±ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Π΄Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π΅ΠΉΡΠ°Ρ Π²Π°Π»ΠΈΠ΄ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Π½Π° Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠΏΡΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠΈ Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ½
Some approaches of estimation of the stopping time of the cross-boundary event for the process with change-point
Π Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Ρ Π΄Π²Π° ΡΠΏΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π° ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π³ΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡΡ. ΠΠ»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ° Ρ ΡΠ°Π·Π»Π°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π² ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΌΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΠΆΠΈΠ΄Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΠΈ, Π³Π΄Π΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ Π½Π°Π±Π»ΡΠ΄Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ Π΄ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΠΈ t. Π ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅ Π²ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ - ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΌΡΠΉ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ Π½Π°Π±Π»ΡΠ΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½Ρ, Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΎΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΈΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π΅Ρ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΎΠ΅ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄Π½Π΅Π΅, ΡΠ°Π²Π½ΠΎΠ΅ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π³ΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡΡ. In this paper two approaches of estimation of the first crossing time of a border are presented. As a first estimate (for the process with the change-point on the interval of observation [0,t]) the conditional mean value expectation of the stopping-time is considered. The second considered estimate β the measurable and observable stopping-time for which the conditional mean value of the appropriate process is equal to the value of the boundary