Prediction of Adolescent Sexual Reoffending: A Meta-Analysis of the J-SOAP-II, ERASOR, J-SORRAT-II, and Static-99

Several risk assessment tools, including the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (Prentky & Righthand, 2003), the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (Worling & Curwen, 2001), the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (Epperson, ralston, Fowers, DeWitt, & Gore, 2006), and the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999), have been used to assess reoffense risk among adolescents who have committed sexual offenses. Given that research on these tools has yielded somewhat mixed results, we empirically synthesized 33 published and unpublished studies involving 6,196 male adolescents who had committed a sexual offense. We conducted two separate meta-analyses, first with correlations and then with AUCs. Total scores on each of the tools significantly predicted sexual reoffending, with aggregated correlations ranging from .12 - .20 and aggregated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores ranging from .64 - .67. In many cases, however, heterogeneity across studies was moderate to high. There were no significant differences between tools, and although the Static-99 was developed for adults, it achieved similar results as the adolescent tools. To help interpret these findings, results are compared to other meta-analyses of risk tools used in the area of violence risk assessment and in other fields

The Intensive Support and Supervision Program: A best practice file evaluation of implementation and outcomes

The Youth Justice Intensive Support and Supervision Program (ISSP) is offered to high-risk, justice-involved youth as an alternative to custody or as a means of facilitating community re-entry after a period of custody. The aim of ISSP is to reduce recidivism by increasing supervision and supporting activities to reduce participants’ criminogenic needs. Research on similar programs has yielded mixed findings for reductions in recidivism, although the way programs are delivered appears to be a key factor influencing their effectiveness. For the current study, an evidence-based evaluation framework of best practices was developed for ISSP from the research literature on similar and general youth justice programs. File data for 176 ISSP participants were used to evaluate the program’s delivery against the best practice framework as well as ISSP’s program guidelines to determine how well the program was implemented and whether a better-implemented program led to better outcomes. A questionnaire study was also conducted with Youth Probation Officers. Adherence to individual program guidelines and best practices varied from 11% to 92% of youth, while the mean of overall best practices implemented was approximately 50%. An implementation composite of best practices was associated with marginal reductions in multiple recidivism outcomes and the positive relationships with intermediate targets such as school and employment outcomes approached significance. Moreover, the relationship between ISSP implementation and recidivism was strongest for younger, for Aboriginal, and for higher-risk participants. An index of level of engagement in ISSP also predicted reductions in recidivism in the year following ISSP. The quality of the ISSP documentation on the files limited the interpretation of the study findings. Several recommendations are offered to support and improve current practice

Defining psychosocial maturity: a risk factor for offending and aggression in adolescents and young adults

Throughout adolescence and into their early 20s, youth are expected to develop sufficient maturity to navigate the adult world. However, the social and emotional aspects of maturity are not well understood, particularly the consequences of inadequate development. Research suggests a relationship between psychosocial immaturity and offending. This three month longitudinal study tested a model of psychosocial maturity (PM) to determine whether there were age differences consistent with a process of maturation, whether the factors in the model comprised a unitary construct, and whether the model prospectively predicted offending and aggression. PM and offending data were collected from 276 high school and university students over a three to four month period. The study partly confirmed theoretical assumptions about PM and found that PM prospectively and concurrently predicted offending and aggression. These findings further emphasize the need for research on psychosocial maturity and its relationship with offending and other outcomes