Visualization techniques and graphical user interfaces in syndromic surveillance systems. Summary from the Disease Surveillance Workshop, Sept. 11–12, 2007; Bangkok, Thailand

Timeliness is a critical asset to the detection of public health threats when using syndromic surveillance systems. In order for epidemiologists to effectively distinguish which events are indicative of a true outbreak, the ability to utilize specific data streams from generalized data summaries is necessary. Taking advantage of graphical user interfaces and visualization capacities of current surveillance systems makes it easier for users to investigate detected anomalies by generating custom graphs, maps, plots, and temporal-spatial analysis of specific syndromes or data sources

Modeling and Syndromic Surveillance for Estimating Weather-Induced Heat-Related Illness

This paper compares syndromic surveillance and predictive weather-based models for estimating emergency department (ED) visits for Heat-Related Illness (HRI). A retrospective time-series analysis of weather station observations and ICD-coded HRI ED visits to ten hospitals in south eastern Ontario, Canada, was performed from April 2003 to December 2008 using hospital data from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) database, ED patient chief complaint data collected by a syndromic surveillance system, and weather data from Environment Canada. Poisson regression and Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS), a nonlinear time series modeling technique, were used to construct models for the expected number of HRI ED visits using weather predictor variables (temperature, humidity, and wind speed). Estimates of HRI visits from regression models using both weather variables and visit counts captured by syndromic surveillance as predictors were slightly more highly correlated with NACRS HRI ED visits than either regression models using only weather predictors or syndromic surveillance counts

The effect of statins on muscle symptoms in primary care:the StatinWISE series of 200 N-of-1 RCTs

Background: Uncertainty persists about whether or not statins cause symptomatic muscle adverse effects (e.g. pain, stiffness and weakness) in the absence of severe myositis.Objectives: To establish the effect of statins on all muscle symptoms, and the effect of statins on muscle symptoms that are perceived to be statin related.Design: A series of 200 double-blinded N-of-1 trials.Setting: Participants were recruited from 50 general practices in England and Wales.Participants: Patients who were considering discontinuing statin use and those who had discontinued statin use in the last 3 years because of perceived muscle symptoms.Interventions: Participants were randomised to a sequence of six 2-month treatment periods during which they received 20 mg of atorvastatin daily or a matched placebo.Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was self-reported muscle symptoms rated using a visual analogue scale on the last week of each treatment period. Secondary outcomes included the participant's belief about the cause of their muscle symptoms, the site of muscle symptoms, how the muscle symptoms affected the participant, any other symptoms they experienced, adherence to medication, the participant's decision about statin treatment following the trial, and whether or not they found their own trial result helpful.Results: A total of 151 out of 200 (75.5%) randomised participants provided one or more visual analogue scale measurements in a placebo period and one or more measurements in a statin period, and were included in the primary analysis. There was no evidence of a difference in muscle symptom scores between statin and placebo periods (mean difference statin minus placebo -0.11, 95% confidence interval -0.36 to 0.14; p = 0.398). Withdrawals, adherence and missing data were similar during the statin periods and the placebo periods.Conclusions: Among people who previously reported severe muscle symptoms while taking statins, this series of randomised N-of-1 trials found no overall effect of statins on muscle symptoms compared with the placebo. The slight difference in withdrawals due to muscle symptoms suggests that statins may contribute to symptoms in a small number of patients. The results are generalisable to patients who are considering discontinuing or have already discontinued statins because of muscle symptoms, and who are willing to re-challenge or participate in their own N-of-1 trial.Future work: We recommend that additional statins and doses are explored using N-of-1 trials. More broadly, N-of-1 trials present a useful tool for exploring transient symptoms with other medications.Limitations: This study used 20-mg doses of atorvastatin only. Furthermore, a dropout rate of 43% was observed, but this was accounted for in the power calculations.Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30952488 and EudraCT 2016-000141-31.</p

Statin treatment and muscle symptoms:series of randomised, placebo controlled n-of-1 trials

OBJECTIVE: To establish the effect of statins on muscle symptoms in people who had previously reported muscle symptoms when taking statins. DESIGN: Series of randomised, placebo controlled n-of-1 trials. SETTING: Primary care across 50 sites in the United Kingdom, December 2016 to April 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 200 participants who had recently stopped or were considering stopping treatment with statins because of muscle symptoms. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised to a sequence of six double blinded treatment periods (two months each) of atorvastatin 20 mg daily or placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: At the end of each treatment period, participants rated their muscle symptoms on a visual analogue scale (0-10). The primary analysis compared symptom scores in the statin and placebo periods. RESULTS: 151 participants provided symptoms scores for at least one statin period and one placebo period and were included in the primary analysis. Overall, no difference in muscle symptom scores was found between the statin and placebo periods (mean difference statin minus placebo -0.11, 95% confidence interval -0.36 to 0.14; P=0.40)). Withdrawals because of intolerable muscle symptoms were 18 participants (9%) during a statin period and 13 (7%) during a placebo period. Two thirds of those completing the trial reported restarting long term treatment with statins. CONCLUSIONS: No overall effect of atorvastatin 20 mg on muscle symptoms compared with placebo was found in participants who had previously reported severe muscle symptoms when taking statins. Most people completing the trial intended to restart treatment with statins. N-of-1 trials can assess drug effects at the group level and guide individual treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN30952488, EUDRACT 2016-000141-31, NCT02781064

Evaluation of an online Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool (DNAT) for health professionals: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Continuous medical education is traditionally reliant to a large extent on self-directed learning based on individuals' perceived learning priorities. Evidence suggests that this ability to self-assess is limited, and more so in the least competent. Therefore, it may be of benefit to utilise some form of external assessment for this purpose. Many diabetes educational programmes have been introduced, but few have been assessed for their benefit in a systematic manner. As diabetes is an increasingly prevalent disease, methods for the dissemination and understanding of clinical guidelines need to be explored for their effectiveness. This paper describes the study design of a randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of using an interactive online Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool (DNAT), that builds a learning curriculum based on identified knowledge gaps, compared with conventional self-directed learning. The study assesses the effect of these interventions on health professionals' knowledge of diabetes management, evaluates the acceptability of this process of learning and self-reported changes in clinical practice as a result of this novel educational process. Methods: Following a baseline assessment, participants will be randomised to undergo a 4-month learning period where they will either be given access to the diabetes learning modules alone (control group) or a Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool (DNAT) plus the diabetes learning modules (intervention group). On completion of the DNAT, a personalised learning report will be created for each participant identifying needs alongside individualised recommendations of the most appropriate learning modules to meet those requirements. All participants will complete a Diabetes Knowledge Test before and immediately after the allocated learning and the primary outcome will be the state of knowledge at 4 months. Learners will also be surveyed immediately after the learning period to assess the acceptability of the learning formats and the perceived usefulness and usability of the materials. After a further month, all learners will receive a series of questions to evaluate self-reported changes in clinical practice as a result of this educational experience and asked to include specific examples of any changes in their diabetes care practice

Using Ontario's "Telehealth" health telephone helpline as an early-warning system: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: The science of syndromic surveillance is still very much in its infancy. While a number of syndromic surveillance systems are being evaluated in the US, very few have had success thus far in predicting an infectious disease event. Furthermore, to date, the majority of syndromic surveillance systems have been based primarily in emergency department settings, with varying levels of enhancement from other data sources. While research has been done on the value of telephone helplines on health care use and patient satisfaction, very few projects have looked at using a telephone helpline as a source of data for syndromic surveillance, and none have been attempted in Canada. The notable exception to this statement has been in the UK where research using the national NHS Direct system as a syndromic surveillance tool has been conducted. METHODS/DESIGN: The purpose of our proposed study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Ontario's telephone nursing helpline system as a real-time syndromic surveillance system, and how its implementation, if successful, would have an impact on outbreak event detection in Ontario. Using data collected retrospectively, all "reasons for call" and assigned algorithms will be linked to a syndrome category. Using different analytic methods, normal thresholds for the different syndromes will be ascertained. This will allow for the evaluation of the system's sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. The next step will include the prospective monitoring of syndromic activity, both temporally and spatially. DISCUSSION: As this is a study protocol, there are currently no results to report. However, this study has been granted ethical approval, and is now being implemented. It is our hope that this syndromic surveillance system will display high sensitivity and specificity in detecting true outbreaks within Ontario, before they are detected by conventional surveillance systems. Future results will be published in peer-reviewed journals so as to contribute to the growing body of evidence on syndromic surveillance, while also providing an non US-centric perspective

Feasibility of aspirin and/or vitamin D3 for men with prostate cancer on active surveillance with Prolaris® testing

OBJECTIVES: To test the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of aspirin and/or vitamin D3 in active surveillance (AS) low/favourable intermediate risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients with Prolaris® testing. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Newly-diagnosed low/favourable intermediate risk PCa patients (PSA ≤ 15 ng/ml, International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Grade Group ≤2, maximum biopsy core length <10 mm, clinical stage ≤cT2c) were recruited into a multi-centre randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study (ISRCTN91422391, NCT03103152). Participants were randomised to oral low dose (100 mg), standard dose (300 mg) aspirin or placebo and/or vitamin D3 (4000 IU) versus placebo in a 3 × 2 factorial RCT design with biopsy tissue Prolaris® testing. The primary endpoint was trial acceptance/entry rates. Secondary endpoints included feasibility of Prolaris® testing, 12-month disease re-assessment (imaging/biochemical/histological), and 12-month treatment adherence/safety. Disease progression was defined as any of the following (i) 50% increase in baseline PSA, (ii) new Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 4/5 lesion(s) on multi-parametric MRI where no previous lesion, (iii) 33% volume increase in lesion size, or radiological upstaging to ≥T3, (iv) ISUP Grade Group upgrade or (v) 50% increase in maximum cancer core length. RESULTS: Of 130 eligible patients, 104 (80%) accepted recruitment from seven sites over 12 months, of which 94 patients represented the per protocol population receiving treatment. Prolaris® testing was performed on 76/94 (81%) diagnostic biopsies. Twelve-month disease progression rate was 43.3%. Assessable 12-month treatment adherence in non-progressing patients to aspirin and vitamin D across all treatment arms was 91%. Two drug-attributable serious adverse events in 1 patient allocated to aspirin were identified. The study was not designed to determine differences between treatment arms. CONCLUSION: Recruitment of AS PCa patients into a multi-centre multi-arm placebo-controlled RCT of minimally-toxic adjunctive oral drug treatments with molecular biomarker profiling is acceptable and safe. A larger phase III study is needed to determine optimal agents, intervention efficacy, and outcome-associated biomarkers

Evaluation of an online interactive Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool (DNAT) versus online self-directed learning: a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Methods for the dissemination, understanding and implementation of clinical guidelines need to be examined for their effectiveness to help doctors integrate guidelines into practice. The objective of this randomised controlled trial was to evaluate the effectiveness of an interactive online Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool (DNAT) (which constructs an e-learning curriculum based on individually identified knowledge gaps), compared with self-directed e-learning of diabetes guidelines.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Health professionals were randomised to a 4-month learning period and either given access to diabetes learning modules alone (control group) or DNAT plus learning modules (intervention group). Participants completed knowledge tests before and after learning (primary outcome), and surveys to assess the acceptability of the learning and changes to clinical practice (secondary outcomes).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty four percent (677/1054) of participants completed both knowledge tests. The proportion of nurses (5.4%) was too small for meaningful analysis so they were excluded. For the 650 doctors completing both tests, mean (SD) knowledge scores increased from 47.4% (12.6) to 66.8% (11.5) [intervention group (n = 321, 64%)] and 47.3% (12.9) to 67.8% (10.8) [control group (n = 329, 66%)], (ANCOVA p = 0.186). Both groups were satisfied with the usability and usefulness of the learning materials. Seventy seven percent (218/284) of the intervention group reported combining the DNAT with the recommended reading materials was "<it>very useful"/"useful"</it>. The majority in both groups (184/287, 64.1% intervention group and 206/299, 68.9% control group) [95% CI for the difference (-2.8 to 12.4)] reported integrating the learning into their clinical practice.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both groups experienced a similar and significant improvement in knowledge. The learning materials were acceptable and participants incorporated the acquired knowledge into practice.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN67215088">ISRCTN67215088</a></p

Hox10 Genes Function in Kidney Development in the Differentiation and Integration of the Cortical Stroma

Organogenesis requires the differentiation and integration of distinct populations of cells to form a functional organ. In the kidney, reciprocal interactions between the ureter and the nephrogenic mesenchyme are required for organ formation. Additionally, the differentiation and integration of stromal cells are also necessary for the proper development of this organ. Much remains to be understood regarding the origin of cortical stromal cells and the pathways involved in their formation and function. By generating triple mutants in the Hox10 paralogous group genes, we demonstrate that Hox10 genes play a critical role in the developing kidney. Careful examination of control kidneys show that Foxd1-expressing stromal precursor cells are first observed in a cap-like pattern anterior to the metanephric mesenchyme and these cells subsequently integrate posteriorly into the kidney periphery as development proceeds. While the initial cap-like pattern of Foxd1-expressing cortical stromal cells is unaffected in Hox10 mutants, these cells fail to become properly integrated into the kidney, and do not differentiate to form the kidney capsule. Consistent with loss of cortical stromal cell function, Hox10 mutant kidneys display reduced and aberrant ureter branching, decreased nephrogenesis. These data therefore provide critical novel insights into the cellular and genetic mechanisms governing cortical cell development during kidney organogenesis. These results, combined with previous evidence demonstrating that Hox11 genes are necessary for patterning the metanephric mesenchyme, support a model whereby distinct populations in the nephrogenic cord are regulated by unique Hox codes, and that differential Hox function along the AP axis of the nephrogenic cord is critical for the differentiation and integration of these cell types during kidney organogenesis