Hats off to you, Jim!

Jim’s intellectual curiosity was an inspiration. In addition to those whose comments follow, he clearly touched the careers and lives of many others

Diagnostic accuracy of a clinical diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: An international case-cohort study

We conducted an international study of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) diagnosis among a large group of physicians and compared their diagnostic performance to a panel of IPF experts. A total of 1141 respiratory physicians and 34 IPF experts participated. Participants evaluated 60 cases of interstitial lung disease (ILD) without interdisciplinary consultation. Diagnostic agreement was measured using the weighted kappa coefficient (\u3baw). Prognostic discrimination between IPF and other ILDs was used to validate diagnostic accuracy for first-choice diagnoses of IPF and were compared using the Cindex. A total of 404 physicians completed the study. Agreement for IPF diagnosis was higher among expert physicians (\u3baw=0.65, IQR 0.53-0.72, p20 years of experience (C-index=0.72, IQR 0.0-0.73, p=0.229) and non-university hospital physicians with more than 20 years of experience, attending weekly MDT meetings (C-index=0.72, IQR 0.70-0.72, p=0.052), did not differ significantly (p=0.229 and p=0.052 respectively) from the expert panel (C-index=0.74 IQR 0.72-0.75). Experienced respiratory physicians at university-based institutions diagnose IPF with similar prognostic accuracy to IPF experts. Regular MDT meeting attendance improves the prognostic accuracy of experienced non-university practitioners to levels achieved by IPF experts

State of the Art in Simulating Future Changes in Ecosystem Services

The goal of fisheries assessment is to predict the consequences of fishing and other environmental interventions and, on that basis, evaluate how different management schemes fare at achieving various management goals. Forecasting the state and harvest of exploited populations and communities is thus central to fishery science.There are two broad approaches that can be used to forecast fisheries population and harvest. On the one hand, there are short-term forecasts aimed at predicting the size of the exploitable stock for the upcoming fishing season in order to implement a predetermined feedback harvest rule. In this case, the forecast is part of the tactic used to define regulatory measures for the fishing season, such as the total allowable catch or the number of allowable effort units. This type of forecast is critical for fisheries based on shortlived or semelparous species (species that reproduce once and then die), where the bulk or all of the annual catch is made up of new recruits.Mid- and long-term forecasts of populations, on the other hand, are used in policy design to examine likely consequences of different management options and thus guide strategic decision-making. In contrast to short-term tactical forecasts, mid- and long-term forecasts are not meant to actually predict the future of the system under exploitation; rather, they attempt to represent a full range of scenarios that are deemed possible based on historical experience. Because our ability to actually predict the responses of natural systems to harvest is admittedly limited, the emphasis in policy design is on feedback and robustness of performance across scenarios. Mid- and long-term forecasts aimed at guiding general management approaches are difficult because they require more information than the most recent harvest rates and data on catch per unit of effort, but it is not clear which of many possible auxiliary data will be most useful or how much history to consider.Fil: Agard, John B. R.. No especifíca;Fil: Alder, Jacqueline. No especifíca;Fil: Bennett, Elena. No especifíca;Fil: Butler, Colin. No especifíca;Fil: Carpenter, Steve. No especifíca;Fil: Cheung, W. W. L.. No especifíca;Fil: Cumming, Graeme S.. No especifíca;Fil: Defries, Ruth. No especifíca;Fil: de Vries, Bert. No especifíca;Fil: Dickinson, Robert E.. No especifíca;Fil: Dobson, Andrew. No especifíca;Fil: Foley, Jonathan A.. No especifíca;Fil: Geoghegan, Jacqueline. No especifíca;Fil: Holland, Beth. No especifíca;Fil: Kabat, Pavel. No especifíca;Fil: Keymer, Juan. No especifíca;Fil: Kleidon, Axel. No especifíca;Fil: Lodge, David. No especifíca;Fil: Manson, Steven M.. No especifíca;Fil: McGlade, Jacquie. No especifíca;Fil: Mooney, Hal. No especifíca;Fil: Parma, Ana María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; ArgentinaFil: Pascual, Miguel Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; ArgentinaFil: Pereira, Henrique M.. No especifíca;Fil: Rosegrant, Mark. No especifíca;Fil: Ringler, Claudia. No especifíca;Fil: Sala, Osvaldo Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Turner II,B. L.. No especifíca;Fil: van Vuuren, Detlef. No especifíca;Fil: Wall, Diana H.. No especifíca;Fil: Wilkinson, Paul. No especifíca;Fil: Wolters, Volkmar. No especifíca

Conceptual Readings into the Cold War: Towards Transnational Approaches from the Perspective of Latin American Studies in Eastern and Western Europe

This bibliographical and conceptual essay summarizes recent research in Cold War Studies in Europe and the Americas, especially on smaller states in historiographical studies. Against the background of an increasing connectedness and globalization of research about the Cold War, the authors highlight the importance of the full-scale integration of countries and regions of the 'Global South' into Cold War Studies. Critical readings of the newly available resources reveal the existence of important decentralizing perspectives resulting from Cold War entanglements of the 'Global South' with the 'Global North.' As a result, the idea that these state actors from the former 'periphery' of the Cold War should be considered as passive recipients of superpower politics seems rather troubled. The evidence shows (at least partially) autonomous and active multiple actors