Disentangling regional and local tree diversity in the Amazon

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordWe analyzed the most extensive data set of tree inventory plots spread over the complete Amazon basin and Guiana shield. We aimed to separate the regional and local tree alpha‐diversity to investigate the drivers of diversity at the relevant scale. Our results are consistent with the partitioning of total tree alpha‐diversity into regional and local components, which are controlled by evolutionary‐ and ecological processes, respectively. Regional diversity is correlated with palaeo‐climatic stability (31%), and long‐term large‐scale ecosystem dynamics (14%), as represented by the age of the geological formation. Both mechanisms contribute to high diversity in the central to western Amazon. Actual rainfall seasonality is correlated with regional tree diversity to a certain extent (19%), but we argue that this is of little consequence for the evolutionary drivers of the regional species pool. Frequency of disturbance is the main process driving local diversity, although its explanatory power is relatively small (17%).The first author was supported by PAN‐AMAZONIA project, Inst. Internacional de Educação do Brasil (BECA program) and Conselho Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia (CNPq – Brazil)

Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species.

Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world's >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century