Forest Fires, Land Use Changes and Their Impact on Hydrological Balance in Temperate Forests of Central Mexico

Temperate forests play a fundamental role in the provision, regulation, and support of hydrological environmental services, but they are subject to constant changes in land use (clearing, overgrazing, deforestation, and forest fires) that upset the hydrological balance. Through scenarios simulated with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model, the present study analyzes the effects of forest fires and land use changes on the hydrological balance in the microwatersheds of central Mexico. The land use changes that took place between 1995 and 2021 were estimated, and projections based on the current scenario were made. Two trend scenarios were proposed for 2047: one with a positive trend (forest permanence) and the other with a negative trend (loss of cover from forest fires). The results show that with permanence or an increase in forest area, the surface runoff would decrease by 48.2%, increasing the base flow by 37% and the soil moisture by 2.3%. If forest is lost, surface runoff would increase up to 454%, and soil moisture would decrease by 27%. If the current forest decline trends continue, then there will be negative alterations in hydrological processes: a reduction in the interception of precipitation by the canopy and an increase in the velocity and flow of surface runoff, among others. The final result will be a lower amount of water being infiltrated into the soil and stored in the subsoil. The provision of hydrological environmental services depends on the maintenance of forest cover

Aptitud actual bajo escenariosde cambio climáticopara trescultivos en México

For the agricultural land area of Mexico, the areas with different degrees of aptitudefor corn, sorghum and wheat were determined, all under temporary conditions, for the current conditions and with climate change scenarios estimated with the GFDL, HAGDEMand REA models; for the RCP of 4.5 and 8.5 Wm-2. The proportion of agricultural land with some degree of aptitudefor current conditions is as follows: corn 81.59%, sorghum 61.54% and wheat 26.95%. Of the climatic variables that determine the lack of aptitude in corn and wheat in agricultural areas, it is mainly the annual mean temperature alone or in combination with the precipitation, in sorghum it is mainly the annual mean precipitation alone or in combination with the annual average temperature. For climate change scenarios, with the exception of sorghum, the other two crops considerably reduce the proportion of agricultural land area with some degree of aptitudefor these. Increasing the annual mean temperature to values above the threshold at which corn and wheat crops are grown is the main cause of loss of aptitude. The determination of the degree of change associated with climate change can be used to develop public policies to address the problem of decreasing or losing the development capacity of cropsPara la superficie de las tierras agrícolas de México se determinaron las áreas con diferentes grados de aptitud para maíz, sorgoy trigo,todos bajo temporal, para las condiciones actuales y con escenarios de cambio climático estimados con losmodelos GFDL, HAGDEM y REA; para los RCP de 4.5 y 8.5 Wm-2. La proporción de las tierras agrícolas con algún grado de aptitud para las condiciones actuales esla siguiente: maíz 81.59%, sorgo 61.54%y trigo 26.95%.De las variables climáticas que determinan la falta de aptitud en el maíz y el trigo en las áreas agrícolas es principalmente la temperatura media anual solao en combinación con la precipitación, en el sorgo es principalmente la precipitación media anual sola o en combinación con la temperatura media anual.Para los escenarios de cambio climático, con excepción del sorgo, los otros doscultivos disminuyende forma considerable la proporción de la superficie de las tierras agrícolas con algún grado de aptitud para estos. El incremento de la temperatura media anual a valores mayores del umbral en que se desarrollan los cultivos de maíz y trigo es la principal causa de perdida de aptitud. La determinación del cambio del grado de aptitud asociada al cambio climático puede usarse para desarrollar políticas públicas para atender la problemática de disminución o perdida de la capacidad de desarrollo de los cultivo

CLIMATE CHANGE IN CENTRAL MEXICO: IMPACT ON BARLEY PRODUCTION (Hordeum vulgare) IN TLAXCALA

Historical production of barley for ten years (2003-2012) as well as under climate change scenarios for near future (2015-2039) and for near future (2075-2099) in Calpulalpan, Tlaxcala was evaluated. An assessment of suitable regions for production was performed as well as historical performance and barley considering future climate change scenarios through the model AquaCrop (FAO) also was estimated. Finally, the average production costs in the region were estimated through surveys with barley producers. The results show that over 70% of the area of the municipality has some degree of aptitude for producing barley. Climate change scenarios indicate increases proficiency in 2% of the surface and reductions of up to 16%. The production model shows very close results with those obtained by farmers in the municipality yields (2.53 t/ha), thus estimated future changes show a decline in yields of about 5% up to 100% depending on the future horizon. Considering current production costs, the benefit-cost relationship could be reduced from 1.4 and to 0.0 in the future. This will certainly affect the economy of the producers in the region

Distribución del cedro rojo (Cedrela odorata L.) en el estado de Hidalgo, bajo condiciones actuales y escenarios de cambio climático

Abstract The potential climatic areas for the distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) were obtained in the state of Hidalgo under actual conditions, with meteorological information of 1961-1990 as base line, and under climate change conditions wich were obtained with two models: GFDL-R30 and HadCM3 for two time scenarios (2020 and 2050). The adjustment rates in temperature and rainfall obtained for each model were applied on climatic influence areas delimitated according to Gómez et al. (2006). A soil moisture balance in the state’s surface was calculated under current and climate change conditions using the Thornthwaite, modified version III methodology (Monterroso and Gómez, 2003). The present percentage of the state surface with the vegetation types associated with red cedar is of 9,8% and the surface percentage estimated with some degree of suitability for this specie, using the climatic characteristics of the baseline scenario, is of 30,4%. The results of applied GFDL-R30 model shows an increment on the total surface with some degree of suitability with respect of the baseline scenario of 3,1% and 4,4% for the years 2020 and 2050, respectively, with a differential increment within the suitability classes. The surface estimated with some degree of suitability applying the HadCM3 model shows a decrement of 0,9% for the year 2020 and 0,2% for 2050. However, the class of Moderate suitable, change from 10,5% on the baseline scenario to 0% and 1,3% for the years 2020 and 2050, respectively, with almost all the areas in the lowest level of suitability.Resumen Se obtuvieron las áreas climáticas potenciales de distribución del cedro rojo (Cedrela odorataL.) en el estado de Hidalgo bajo condiciones actuales, con información meteorológica de 1961-1990 como escenario base, y bajo escenarios de cambio climático obtenidos con los modelos GFDL-R30 y el HadCM3 para los años 2020 y 2050. Se aplicaron las tasas de cambio en temperatura y precipitación sobre las áreas de influencia climática delimitadas de acuerdo a Gómezet al.(2006). Se realizó un balance de humedad bajo condiciones actuales y de cambio climático aplicando la metodología de Thornthwaite modificada versión III (Monterroso y Gómez, 2003). Actualmente se reporta 9,8% de la superficie del estado con tipos de vegetación con los que se asocia el cedro rojo, y las estimaciones con las características climáticas del escenario base muestran que el 30,4% del estado presenta algún grado de aptitud para el desarrollo de esta especie. Los resultados del modelo GFDL-R30 indican un incremento en la superficie con algún nivel de aptitud, con respecto al escenario base, de 3,1% y 4,4% para el año 2020 y 2050, respectivamente. El aumento es diferencial dentro de las clases de aptitud. Para el modelo HadCM3 la superficie con algún nivel de aptitud disminuye 0,9% para el año 2020 y 0 ,2% para el año 2050. Sin embargo, el nivel de Moderadamente apto pasa de 10,5% en el escenario base a 0% y 1,3% para el año 2020 y 2050, respectivamente, ubicándose prácticamente todas las áreas en el menor nivel de aptitud

El ordenamiento ecológico territorial instrumento de política ambiental para la planeación del desarrollo local

The aim was to propose a development planning model validated in field conducive to the proper use of natural resources. Related to the methodology, a program of ecological land relying on geographic information systems, participatory workshops, field observations and semi-structured interviews was formulated. We found these results: The local development model proposed part of the foundations of sustainable development, participatory rural appraisal and territorial planning and seeking compatibility between the management of natural resources, productive activities, sociocultural characteristics, technical recommendations and the perceived needs of the population. The main limiting factors in this work are the little time to complete and required to monitor and assess the processes of self-management and the availability of economic resources to finance it. Thus, we can conclude that the contribution of this work, as a tool for planning and local development, seen as pillar for the construction of the proposed participation of stakeholders in the public, private and social sector, so that their visions combine the perspective of sustainable management natural resources in the same effort to decide local affairs.El objetivo fue proponer un modelo de planeación de desarrollo validado en campo que propicie el uso adecuado de los recursos naturales. En cuanto a la metodología, se formuló un programa de ordenamiento ecológico del territorio apoyándose en los sistemas de información geográfica, talleres participativos, recorridos de campo y entrevistas semiestructuradas. El resultado de este trabajo es que el modelo de desarrollo local propuesto parte de los fundamentos del desarrollo sustentable, la evaluación rural participativa y la planificación territorial y busca la compatibilidad entre el manejo de los recursos naturales, las actividades productivas, las características socioculturales, las recomendaciones técnicas y las necesidades sentidas de la población. Las principales limitantes en este tipo de trabajo son el poco tiempo para su realización y el requerido para el acompañamiento y evaluación de los procesos de autogestión así como la disponibilidad de los recursos económicos para financiarla. Nuestra conclusión es que la aportaciónde este trabajo, como instrumento de planeación y desarrollo local, contempla como pilar para la construcción de las propuestas la participación de actores del sector público, privado y social, de tal forma que se conjuguen sus visiones bajo la óptica del manejo sostenible de los recursos naturales en un mismo esfuerzo para decidir el quehacer local

Estado de los recursos naturales en el parque nacional Molino de Flores Netzahualcóyotl

“Molino de Flores Netzahualcoyotl” National Park is a protected area located in Texcoco, Mexico and is managed by the municipality. The area lacks a management plan or any other guide or planning document that sets standards in management and conservation of its natural resources. The main goal was to make a natural resources inventory and current conservation status, thus information was obtained from 51 sampling sites in its 45 hectares of extension. The method was to delimit the park and carry out an inventory and diagnosis of natural resources. Data collected on the current state of the soil (18 parameters), vegetation (36 parameters in 5 strata) and water (4 points, 16 samples and 9 parameters each one). Information exposes the present problems and tendencies of deterioration in the National Park: decrease of vegetal cover, soil and water pollution, discharges of contaminated residual water in the Coxcacuaco river, high rates in soils by water erosion, deforestation and illegal extraction of forest resources. The results allow to know the main causes of the degradation of the natural resources and at the same time the areas of opportunity to propitiate their rehabilitation, correct management and administration of the park.El Parque Nacional Molino de Flores Netzahualcóyotl es un área natural protegida que se encuentra en el municipio de Texcoco y es administrada por el Ayuntamiento. El área carece de un plan de manejo o alguna otra guía o documento de planeación que marque pauta en el manejo y conservación de sus recursos naturales. Con el objetivo de hacer un inventario y conocer su estado actual de conservación se analizó información obtenida en campo de 51 sitios de muestreo en sus 45 hectáreas de extensión. El método consistió en delimitar el parque y realizar un inventario y diagnóstico de los recursos naturales. Se tomaron datos sobre el estado actual del suelo (18 parámetros), vegetación (36 parámetros en 5 estratos) y agua (4 puntos, 16 muestras y 9 parámetros cada una). La información revela los problemas presentes y en gran mayoría con tendencias de deterioro que padece el parque: disminución de cobertura vegetal, contaminación de suelo y agua, descargas de aguas residuales contaminadas en el río Coxcacuaco, altas tasas por erosión hídrica, deforestación y extracción de recursos forestales. Los resultados permiten conocer las principales causas de la degradación de los recursos y a su vez las áreas de oportunidad para propiciar su rehabilitación, correcto manejo y administración del parque

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially