Early Change in Urine Protein as a Surrogate End Point in Studies of IgA Nephropathy: An Individual-Patient Meta-analysis

Background The role of change in proteinuria as a surrogate end point for randomized trials in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) has previously not been thoroughly evaluated. Study Design Individual patient–level meta-analysis. Setting & Population Individual-patient data for 830 patients from 11 randomized trials evaluating 4 intervention types (renin-angiotensin system [RAS] blockade, fish oil, immunosuppression, and steroids) examining associations between changes in urine protein and clinical end points at the individual and trial levels. Selection Criteria for Studies Randomized controlled trials of IgAN with measurements of proteinuria at baseline and a median of 9 (range, 5-12) months follow-up, with at least 1 further year of follow-up for the clinical outcome. Predictor 9-month change in proteinuria. Outcome Doubling of serum creatinine level, end-stage renal disease, or death. Results Early decline in proteinuria at 9 months was associated with lower risk for the clinical outcome (HR per 50% reduction in proteinuria, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.32-0.48) and was consistent across studies. Proportions of treatment effect on the clinical outcome explained by early decline in proteinuria were estimated at 11% (95% CI, −19% to 41%) for RAS blockade and 29% (95% CI, 6% to 53%) for steroid therapy. The direction of the pooled treatment effect on early change in proteinuria was in accord with the direction of the treatment effect on the clinical outcome for steroids and RAS blockade. Trial-level analyses estimated that the slope for the regression line for the association of treatment effects on the clinical end points and for the treatment effect on proteinuria was 2.15 (95% Bayesian credible interval, 0.10-4.32). Limitations Study population restricted to 11 trials, all having fewer than 200 patients each with a limited number of clinical events. Conclusions Results of this analysis offer novel evidence supporting the use of an early reduction in proteinuria as a surrogate end point for clinical end points in IgAN in selected settings

GFR Decline as an Alternative End Point to Kidney Failure in Clinical Trials:A Meta-analysis of Treatment Effects From 37 Randomized Trials

Background: There is increased interest in using alternative end points for trials of kidney disease progression. The currently established end points of end-stage renal disease and doubling of serum creatinine level, equivalent to a 57% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), are late events in chronic kidney disease (CKD), requiring large clinical trials with long follow-up. As part of a comprehensive evaluation of lesser declines in eGFR as alternative end points, we describe the consistency of treatment effects of intervention on the alternative and established end points in past trials. Study Design: Diagnostic test study. Setting & Population: 9,488 participants from 37 randomized controlled trials of CKD progression across 5 intervention types. Index Test: Alternative end points including percentage change in eGFR from baseline (20%, 30%, 40%, and 57%) throughout study duration and to 12, 18, and 24 months. eGFR change confirmed versus nonconfirmed at the next visit. Reference Test: The historically established end point of time to composite of treated kidney failure (end-stage renal disease), untreated kidney failure (GFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), or doubling of serum creatinine level throughout study duration. Results: Over a median of 3.62 years' follow-up, there were 3,070 established end points. Compared to the established end point, the number of alternative end points was greater for smaller versus larger declines in eGFR and longer versus shorter follow-up intervals. There was a general trend toward attenuation of the treatment effect with end points defined by a lesser eGFR decline, with greater attenuation with nonconfirmed end points, except for the low-protein-diet intervention, for which a stronger treatment effect was observed. The ratio (95% credible interval) of the HR for the alternative to established end point for the 5 intervention types ranged from 0.91 (0.64-1.43) to 1.12 (0.89-1.40) for 40% decline and from 0.88 (0.63-1.39) to 1.15 (0.88-1.54) for 30% decline for the overall study duration, indicating consistency of treatment effects. Limitations: Limited variety of interventions tested and low statistical power for many CKD clinical trials. Conclusions: These results provide some support for the use of lesser eGFR declines as a surrogate end point, with stronger support for the 40% than 30% decline. (C) 2014 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc

Estimated GFR Decline as a Surrogate End Point for Kidney Failure:A Post Hoc Analysis From the Reduction of End Points in Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes With the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) Study and Irbesartan Diabetic Nephropathy Trial (IDNT)

Background: A doubling of serum creatinine value, corresponding to a 57% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), is used frequently as a component of a composite kidney end point in clinical trials in type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to determine whether alternative end points defined by smaller declines in eGFR would improve the statistical power of these clinical trials. Study Design: Post hoc analyses of 2 multinational randomized controlled trials (Reduction of End Points in Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes With the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan [RENAAL] and Irbesartan Diabetic Nephropathy Trial [IDNT]) that assessed the treatment effect of the angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) losartan and irbesartan. Setting & Participants: 1,513 (RENAAL) and 1,715 (IDNT) adult patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. Predictor: Established versus alternative end points defined as a confirmed doubling of serum creatinine level versus confirmed eGFR decline of 57%, 40%, 30%, or 20% as a component of a composite end point of end-stage renal disease or eGFR, 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2). Outcomes: Numbers of patients reaching end points, precision (standard error), and significance (z score) of ARB treatment effect (HR) during follow-up. Results: Lesser eGFR declines resulted in a greater number of patients reaching end points in both treatment groups and lower standard error of the HR, but the effect on z score was counterbalanced by attenuation of the HR. When calculating the eGFR decline from month 3, attenuation of the HR was less pronounced. Limitations: Post hoc analysis. Conclusions: Despite increases in precision of the treatment effect, eGFR declines less than a doubling of serum creatinine value did not consistently improve statistical power of the clinical trials due to attenuation of the treatment effect. Attenuation of the treatment effect appears to be due in part to acute effects of ARB son eGFR. These findings should be taken into account when using lesser eGFR declines as alternative end points for clinical trials. (C) 2014 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc