Coalitions in Space: Where Networks are Power

This study begins with the widely recognized problem of 21st century space vulnerabilities. To address this challenge, it proposes the new concept of an “allied space network” as a possible means of both reducing risks and enhancing space power. Such a concept would move beyond realist, Cold War “balancing” in space, and instead would require new forms of technical and political cooperation in the military sector among participating states. In thinking about future space security this study argues that trans-national networks and alliances offer considerable untapped potential, with possibly significant benefits particularly for the United States, which—unlike China and Russia— already has established military alliances with a number of countries possessing or now developing advanced space capabilities

Russia’s Strategic Recalibration After the Ukraine Conflict: Implications for the Two Near-Peer Competitors Strategic Environment (Part 1)

Prepared for: OPNAV/N514. This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). NRP Project ID: NPS-23-N068-AThis research examines the evolving strategic partnership between Russia and China as near-peer, nuclear-armed adversaries for the U.S. in the wake of the war in Ukraine. It focuses on Russia’s new security situation after the conflict in Ukraine, particularly how it might attempt to compensate for its depleted strategic capabilities and resources by partnering with China. The research is organized along two parallel tracks. The first track, contained in this part of the technical report, analyzes how Russia’s nuclear posture has evolved as result of the War in Ukraine, and assesses the impact of the Sino-Russian cooperation on Russia’s space program. The second track of this research, contained in Part 2 of the technical report, examines the cooperation between Russia and China in the nuclear realm, as well as its implications. This research was conducted through a combined team effort of subject-matter experts on Russian strategic doctrines, capabilities, and behavior. The researchers performed a rigorous analysis of the debates in the Russian literature, complementing and contextualizing this information through discussions with subject-matter experts in Washington, the U.S. Strategic Command, and the U.S. Space Command.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098)Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program OPNAV/N51

The Past, Present, and Future of Space Security

Ploughshares Fun

Toward Cooperation or Conflict on the Moon? Considering Lunar Governance in Historical Perspective

The question of how the moon will be governed once humans return in about a decade and begin to establish permanent bases matters greatly to the future of international security. Already, a range of major powers have plans to participate in the moon’s further scientific exploration, commercial exploitation, and possible permanent settlement. If we count both manned and robotic activities, this list currently includes the United States, China, Russia, India, Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Space Agency, Japan, and South Korea. Other countries are likely to join this list in the coming years

Assessing the impact of low nuclear numbers on strategic stability: a regional analysis

President Barack Obama has outlined a course toward lower numbers of U.S. nuclear weapons. Much attention has been paid to the U.S.-Russian context, where deterrence is believed to be basically stable and conditions ripe for gradually reducing arsenals on both sides. But considerably less attention has been paid to the possible implications of lower nuclear numbers on other regions of the world and the reactions of both aadversaries and U.S. allies. If nuclear weapons are to be stabilizing and beneficial to security, reassurance and strengthenes nonproliferation efforts in various regions need to accompany nuclear cuts. But the specific problems and remedies across regions vary. This report summarizes the result of a multi-author study conducted with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. It concludes that regions with U.S. allies and formal extended deterrence pledges may pose more vexing problems than those areas of the world without such close allies or commitments. It suggests that specific efforts to engage these allies, particularly in terms of planning for operational and decision-making coordination in advance of any crisis, should be a priority for U.S. policy

Submarine and Autonomous Vessel Proliferation; Implications for Future Strategic Stability at Sea

"Conventional wisdom from the late Cold War onward suggests that the U.S. submarine force is virtually invulnerable to attack, particularly since the demise of the Soviet Union. U.S. nuclear force planning and a range of other Navy long-range procurement plans assume the safety of future SSBN [Ballistic Missile Submarine] and SSN [Nuclear Attack Submarine] operations and the relative absence of threats. This scoping study tests and challenges these assumptions by examining international trends in the proliferation of submarines and autonomous vessel technology. It begins by observing that undersea strategic stability during the Cold War relied on specific factors that may not be present in the future. The study then surveys the range of new countries and capabilities emerging in the 21st century undersea environment. It concludes by suggesting that undersea warfare is going to pose serious new challenges to the U.S. Navy, possibly putting its sea-based leg of the triad at risk as the number of operational boats declines, while also observing that overseas SSN operations will be complicated by changing conditions and ASW [Anti-Submarine Warfare] developments. Finally, Moltz offers several possible remedies: 1) revision of currently laissez-faire U.S. policies in the area of submarine export controls; 2) revised procurement and basing policies in regard to U.S. SSBNs to reduce emerging vulnerabilities; and 3) reconsideration of diesel/AIP [Air-Independent Propulsion] boats as a supplement to U.S. SSN forces for enhanced ASW and for conducting certain domestic and overseas missions better suited to smaller, less costly, less vulnerable, and more nimble vessels."2012 021Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Asia's Space Race: National Motivations, Regional Rivalries,and International Risks and The Politics of Space Security: Strategic Restraint and the Pursuit of National Interests. 2nd ed. (Publication Announcement)

A publication announcement created for an event at the Dudley Knox Library, Naval Postgraduate Schoo

The Changing Dynamics of Twenty-First-Century Space Power

Many recent assessments of space power have posited a US decline and predicted a gloomy future in comparison to China and Russia. However, such analyses—based almost exclusively on state-run activities—present only part of the picture. In the twenty-first century, a new form of bottom-up, net-centric, commercially led space innovation is emerging that promises cheaper and more timely technological developments to those nations that can effectively tap into them, thus reshaping traditional definitions of space power. This study first sets a baseline by focusing on Cold War space power determinants, next analyzes recent changes among the three leading spacefaring nations, and then looks into the future, factoring in the expanded role of commercial space start- ups and military space alliances. The article concludes that new forms of networked space power could put the United States in a more favor- able position than countries relying on state-controlled innovation and development

Coalition Building in Space: Where Networks are Power

This study begins with the widely recognized problem of 21st century space vulenrabilities. To address this challenge it proposes the new concept of an "allied space network" as a possible means of both reducing risks and enhancing space power.Prepared for the DTRA-funded project on "Allied Security and an Integrated Satellite Network"This product is the result of collaboration between the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Office of Strategic Research and Dialogues and Naval Postgraduate Schoo