Prediction of Second-Year Grade Point Averages at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School

Draft.The article of record as published may be located at https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2333-8504.1950.tb00677.xIn July 1948 twenty aptitude and achievement tests were given to members of the incoming class at the Naval Postgraduate School. These tests, previously validated against the criterion of first-year quality-point ratios, have now been correlated with grade data for the first two terms of the second year at the School. Scores on all of the tests previously found to have high effectiveness for predicting first-year academic performance were found to be significantly related to second-year grades. Using a technique developed by Horst, an estimate of .43 was obtained for the value of the multiple correlation between tests and criterion. Since the second-year validities were consistently and appreciably lower than those for the first year, various possible explanations for the decreases in validity from first to second year were suggested and examined. It was concluded that part of this decrease was due to an observed lower reliability for second-year grades, and that part was due to the effects of selective drop-out. It was also concluded that in part this decrease was due to differences between the first- and second-year curricula (with abilities required for success in the second year which were perhaps not measured as well by the tests as the abilities required for success in the first year), and to real changes which might have occurred in the students during the elapsed time interval, for example, changes in motivation. Since several of these factors which tend to reduce the test-criterion are in no way faults of the tests, it was concluded that the second-year validities may be regarded as fairly satisfactory. However, further work in the area seems desirable

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A comparison of admitted and non-admitted groups at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School

Research Bulletin Series RB-50-53In the fall of' 1948 the five-part Naval Postgraduate School Aptitude Test Form WIPF was administered at shore installations and on ships to applicants for admission to the Postgraduate School. Test data for those later admitted to the School have now been compared with similar data for those who were not selected, to allow comparisons of' the applicant and admitted groups and to estimate the effects of' the present selection process on the magnitudes of the test validities being obtained in the experimental test-development program being carried on at the Postgraduate School. It was found that the greatest reduction in range of talent had occurred for the Mathematics Aptitude part of the test, and, as a consequence, that the validity of this part was most markedly affected by the selection process. Lesser effects were noted for the Reading Comprehension, Spatial Intersections, and Physics parts of the test. No reduction in range of talent was observed for the Verbal Antonyms part and since it seems probable that the validity of this test is not seriously affected by the selection process, its observed low validity may be concluded not to be a result of rigorous selection on verbal ability. It was concluded that in the future interpretation of test validities, the fact must be taken into account that the present method of selection restricts the range of ability in mathematics aptitude somewhat more than in other areas. Observed validities tor mathematics tests are therefore likely to have been lowered more by the selection process than those of' other tests involved in the study

The Development of a test for use in selecting Naval Postgraduate School students

Research Bulletin Series RB-51-23During a three-year period the Educational Testing Service has carried on a research program for the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School for the purpose of developing a test to be used as part of the means of selecting students for the School. Three experimental test batteries have been developed during this period and tried out at the School. In addition, a five-part aptitude test was administered in 1948 "in the fleet" to applicants for admission to the School. All tests have been evaluated against criteria of academic success at the School. In addition, 1948 teats have been judged for effectiveness in predicting continuation at the School. Accumulated validation data led to the recommended test, which consists of Mathematics Aptitude, Advanced Mathematics, Physical Science and Engineering, Interpretation of Scientific Data, and Experimental Science sections. The recommended test can confidently be expected to be of significant value in determining which of the applicants are most likely to succeed in their work at the Postgraduate School

A follow-up validity study of the Naval Postgraduate School test and some of its components

Research Bulletin Series RB-53-6This report presents the first direct evidence on the validity of the Naval Postgraduate School Test Form ZNP. For student officers tested in its first operational use in the fall of 1951 who subsequently entered the Engineering School in 1952, a correlation of .41 was found between test scores and quality-point ratios for the first three terms of academic work. Both for this group and for other groups entering earlier who had been given tests corresponding to sections of Form ZNP, bar charts are presented relating test scores to academic performances. In general, results corroborate earlier studies, although the effectiveness of the tests given "in-the-fleet" in the fall of 1949 was not as great as for tests given at the School, or for the operational form of the selection test. Of most consequence is the finding regarding Form ZNP. Taken in conjunction with all the other evidence that has been gathered about the validity of tests similar to sections of Form ZNP, the observed effectiveness of' this test seems sufficient to warrant its description as a useful instrument for selecting Postgraduate Engineering School students

Validities of tests given in 1950 for predicting average grades for the first two terms at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School

Research Bulletin Series RB-51-11In August 1950 nine aptitude and achievement tests constructed by the Educational Testing Service under an Office of Naval Research contract were given to the members of the incoming class at the U. S. Naval Postgraduate School. Two tests provided by the Research Division of the Bureau of Naval Personnel were also administered. Scores on these eleven tests have now been studied in relation to the quality-point ratios earned by officers in this class for their first two terms at the Postgraduate School. Bar charts are presented showing for each of four score intervals on each test what percent of students achieved quality-point ratios of 2.0 or higher. In addition, product-moment coefficients of correlation between scores on each test and the criterion of quality-point ratios have been obtained. The most effective of the tests for predicting this criterion were the Mathematics Aptitude Test, the Advanced Mathematics Test, the Physical Science and Engineering Test, the Interpretation of Data Test, and the two BuPers tests: General Mathematics NAVPERS and General Physics NAVPERS. Results of the 1950 experimental tests were found to be highly con­sistent with those obtained from the 1948 and 1949 tests