No. 21: Cross-Border Raiding and Community Conflict in the Lesotho-South African Border Zone

Movement backwards and forwards across borders for work is often considered to be the primary form of unauthorized movement in Southern Africa. In southern Lesotho, a new and particularly dangerous form of two-way cross-border movement has become entrenched. This situation warrants the label “crisis”; a crisis which is devastating parts of the countryside in both Lesotho and the northern Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Media and official attention has focused on the extreme violence which accompanies cross-border stock raiding. This paper seeks to understand the social and economic roots and impacts of cross-border stock theft. Such an analysis is a vital first-step towards the resolution of the conflict since it shows not only why the violence occurs but who stands to benefit from its perpetuation. The analysis is also helpful to understanding the extent to which the existence of an international border is implicated in the cycle and counter-cycle of violence. This paper concludes with an assessment of official reaction, or inaction, on the crisis. The findings are based upon wide-ranging interviews with 147 respondents in 10 villages in southern Lesotho. A complementary study is now recommended on the South African side of the border. The stock theft epidemic is characterized by the following features: Although stock theft is not new to this border zone, it became more widespread, organized and violent in the 1990s. Some 71% of the Basotho stockowners reported having had stock stolen since 1990, many more than once. Over 40% of nonstockowners say they are without animals because of stock theft. Since 1990, 85% of stockowners in the border villages have lost animals to thieves as compared with 49% from non-border villages. Shepherds from border villages also report a higher rate of victimisation (83%) than those further removed from the border (50%). Most cattle and sheep are stolen from cattle posts where they are guarded only by shepherds. Stock is also taken from village kraals and, on occasion, whole villages have been attacked and all the stock driven off. Villagers in all ten villages rate stock theft as a serious problem. Stock thieves come from within Lesotho as well as across the border in South Africa. Basotho stock thieves also carry out raids in South Africa and vice-versa. Gun use is widespread, although South African raiders seem to have greater access to arms. Much of the theft appears to be coordinated by well-organised criminal gangs but reliable information on their composition and organization is difficult to access. Criminal networks in Lesotho and South Africa also cooperate to dispose of stolen animals in the lowlands of Lesotho and as far afield as Port Elizabeth, Durban and Welkom The upsurge in stock theft is clearly related to growing poverty in the region. On both sides of the border, mine retrenchments have hit hard, sending experienced miners home and denying young men access to wage employment. Not only has this exacerbated household and community poverty, but it has provided willing foot-soldiers for stock thieves. Stock raiding produces further impoverishment, insecurity and suspicion, fuelling the escalating cycle of theft and counter-theft. Though not itself in dispute or a source of conflict per se, the Lesotho-South African border plays an essential role in the organization and impact of stock theft. There are significant differences in vulnerability and impact between villages close to the border and those further inland. The international border leads to a distinctive pattern of stock theft. In the simplest scenario, raiders from one side steal from border villages on the other and vice-versa and drive the stock back over the border. The situation becomes more problematic when Basotho stock thieves use the border as a refuge, stealing from Basotho and driving the animals across the border into South Africa to sell or exchange with South African thieves. Cross-border counter-raids to retrieve lost stock and revenge attacks are also common on both sides of the border. South African victims then target Basotho border villages for revenge raids, resulting in great tension and friction between ordinary Basotho and South Africans. The only Lesotho village reporting harmonious cross-border relations borders a white South African farming area. However, white border farmers are not aloof from the conflict. Lesotho police and villagers are adamant that some white South African farmers are implicated in cross-border theft. Stock raiding has major negative impacts on households, communities and cross-border interaction. The impacts also extend to the national economy. In Qacha’s Nek and Quthing districts, production of wool and mohair has fallen significantly in the last 5 years. Livestock holdings have dropped and the numbers of stockless households has increased. Farmers are reluctant to invest in breeding cattle as households debate the merits of getting rid of their cattle. One prominent stock-owner recently lost M200,000 of stock. Stock theft has also had a deleterious effect on agriculture, reducing the availability of oxen for ploughing fields. No one is immune from small-scale and organized raiding. Stock theft, coupled with decreasing agricultural production and increasing unemployment, deepens poverty and desperation. At the household and community level, the research found the following: Nearly 90% of respondents state their household economies have been negatively affected by stock theft. A household’s entire wealth and livelihood can be wiped out in one attack. Escalating stock theft and related violence have profound social consequences, bringing fear and insecurity to ordinary people. People are abandoning their villages and migrating to town and to South Africa to look for work. Community relations have become fraught with tension and suspicion. Nearly half of all stockowners interviewed suspect specific individuals within their own village are involved in the theft of animals – acting either as informants or actual thieves. Invariably it is the poor who are fingered and stigmatised. Communal cooperation such as livestock loaning for ploughing and mafisa (sharing of products) is in steep decline, as are cultural activities and celebrations which involve the slaughter of animals. Cross-border cooperation, activities and initiatives have collapsed and there is considerable animosity and hatred between the communities on either side of the border. Even casual visiting and shopping have all but ceased. Prevention efforts have involved some cross-border cooperation between villages to apprehend thieves and return cattle but these efforts are sporadic and make little dent on the problem. They often also lead to vicious reprisals from stock-theft syndicates. Vigilantism is on the rise in the face of widespread perceptions that the police and the courts on both sides of the border are either ineffectual or corrupt. This paper examines the inadequacies of the policing of the crisis, highlighting the low rates of arrest and prosecution. The difficulties of geography and inadequate resources which hamper effective policing are highlighted. Only in areas where the army is stationed or soldiers patrol the border has there been any marked decrease in theft. The situation is bound to deteriorate further unless there is effective national-level attention and intervention. The low-level civil war in the nearby Tsolo district of South Africa in 1997 was fuelled by a potent mix of poverty, mine retrenchments and stock theft. This conflict could well pale in comparison with the volatile situation building in the southern Lesotho border zone. Here, the same combination of factors are compounded by ethnic and national difference, and the strategic manipulation of borders by stock thieves on both sides. Both governments need to recognize that this local crisis could escalate into a major conflagration and intervene to defuse the situation, calm tensions and work towards effective policing and a political solution. Within Lesotho, the passage of a new Stock Theft Act promises heavy penalties for the shadowy figures involved in organized raiding, provided they can be caught. The institution of a national stock register also seems a step in the right direction though its likely effectiveness is debated. Both the Lesotho and South African governments should acknowledge that a crisis situation exists and that this is a regional problem. Only when national governments, working together with local stakeholders, take the problem seriously and begin cooperating can workable initiatives to halt this devastating social and economic plague be implemented

A study of spherical solutions in chameleon scalar-tensor theories

The equivalence principle has proven to be central to theories of gravity, with General Relativity being the simplest and most elegant theory to embody the principle. Most alternative theories of gravity struggle to satisfy the principle and still be distinct from GR. Extensions of cosmological and quantum theories question the irrefutably of the equivalence at every scale. The possibility of an equivalence principle violation at galactic scales would be an exciting prospect. In this thesis, we will carefully examine the equivalence principle through the study of chameleon scalar-tensor theories, this will include solutions for hypothetical stars known as boson stars. Such theories find varied application, especially in cosmology, where they model dark energy and inflation. The AWE hypothesis, is an instance of this. It is a nonuniversally coupled model in which violations of the equivalence principle on galactic scales may be apparent. We investigate spherically symmetric and static solutions within the framework of this theory. The constraints obtained from galactic rotation curves results in values of the couplings that show no significant violation of the equivalence principle or values consistent with a theory of dark energ

The CFA Franc Zone: a modern reincarnation of a colonial relic

This study assesses the French Community of Africa, commonly known as the CFA Franc zone. This is a monetary union comprising 14 African countries in West and Central Africa. The purpose of the study is to examine the manner in which this monetary union affects the development of these 14 African member states, with special reference to the membership of France in the union. For various reasons, including language, time and other resource constraints, and the prohibitive geographical distance, this study has had to rely heavily and exclusively on the review of literature on the subject matter, as opposed to other more popular research procedures. The key finding of this research is that the CFA Franc zone, from its inception, was never conceived as a union of equal partners. There are unmistakable features that point to the superiority of France in the union. For example, the union was proposed by France as a condition for the attainment of independence by these former colonies. They had to sign the colonial pact made up of economic, political and military arrangements, all of which give France the upper hand and huge advantages in the union. These include the fact that the African CFA Franc zone countries have to deposit 50 per cent of their foreign reserves into the French treasury; they have to peg their currencies to the Euro on a fixed exchange rate system; and they are not allowed to devalue their currencies as they see fit, because in the union agreement, this is the exclusive prerogative of France, which can itself devalue these currencies unilaterally. This study concludes that the CFA Franc zone is, indeed, a classical form of neo-colonialism. Thus, short of abandoning this union altogether, the study recommends a fundamental and momentous restructuring of the union to make it a win-win arrangement in which the union benefits both parties and facilitates the genuine socio-economic and political development of the CFA Franc zone countries

The effects of mergers and acquisitions on investment returns: cases of Massmart and SABMiller

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017This study investigates the effects of M&A to investment returns in South Africa. The value of M&A executed in emerging economies (EM) is around $129 billion (The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 2014) and this figure is projected to double in the next ten years bringing positive economic development in EM. In light of this perspective, there is renewed interest in understanding the economics of M&A in developing countries. Our aim was to assess the extent of mergers and acquisition on shareholder returns in South Africa using a case study approach. A case study approach was adopted in order to analyse the impact of specific events on shareholder value by date. Two prominent mergers involving acquiring companies from Developed Markets (DM) were selected namely AB Inbev (Belgium) and Walmart (US). As anticipated, the results show that each merger update announcement had an impact on the share price of the target based on the type of announcement. Positive news increased the share price and bad news adversely impacted the share price. Post the merger, Massmart’s headcount increased and profitability decreased. The same could not be measured for SABMiller as the company has been delisted.MT201

The acute clinical presentation of older patients admitted to the medical wards of Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital

A research report submitted to the faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Medicine in the branch of Internal Medicine. Johannesburg, 2017.In South Africa, very little is known regarding the spectrum of clinical illnesses for which older patients are admitted to hospital. Within this group who are admitted, even less is known of the burden of HIV disease. This study investigated the clinical indications for acute medical admission in adults over the age of 50 years at Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital. The study also determined the prevalence of HIV infection of those with HIV, their access and adherence to treatment. Methods: This was a prospective, observational study of patients over 50 years of age who were acutely admitted to the medical wards of Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital (CHBAH) between August 2014 to March 2015. Results: A total of 200 participants 50 years and older were enrolled, 34% HIV-positive, 37% HIV-negative and 29% whose HIV status was unknown. The HIV-positive group was younger (p <0.0001), had poorer access to pension funds (p<0.0001) and higher burdens of acute infectious illness when compared to their HIV-negative counterparts (p<0.0068). HIV-negative patients had higher rates of acute cardiovascular and haematological conditions (p<0.0001) and higher rates of chronic non-communicable disease (p<0.0004), predominantly diabetes mellitus (p<0.0095) and hypertension (p<0.0024). Conclusion: In older patients hospitalised for acute illness, both infectious and non-communicable disease play a significant role however, in those with HIV, the infectious burden of disease is more prominent while non-communicable chronic disease predominated in those without HIV.LG201

No. 21: Cross-Border Raiding and Community Conflict in the Lesotho-South African Border Zone

Movement backwards and forwards across borders for work is often considered to be the primary form of unauthorized movement in Southern Africa. In southern Lesotho, a new and particularly dangerous form of two-way cross-border movement has become entrenched. This situation warrants the label “crisis”; a crisis which is devastating parts of the countryside in both Lesotho and the northern Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Media and official attention has focused on the extreme violence which accompanies cross-border stock raiding. This paper seeks to understand the social and economic roots and impacts of cross-border stock theft. Such an analysis is a vital first-step towards the resolution of the conflict since it shows not only why the violence occurs but who stands to benefit from its perpetuation. The analysis is also helpful to understanding the extent to which the existence of an international border is implicated in the cycle and counter-cycle of violence. This paper concludes with an assessment of official reaction, or inaction, on the crisis. The findings are based upon wide-ranging interviews with 147 respondents in 10 villages in southern Lesotho. A complementary study is now recommended on the South African side of the border. The stock theft epidemic is characterized by the following features: Although stock theft is not new to this border zone, it became more widespread, organized and violent in the 1990s. Some 71% of the Basotho stockowners reported having had stock stolen since 1990, many more than once. Over 40% of nonstockowners say they are without animals because of stock theft. Since 1990, 85% of stockowners in the border villages have lost animals to thieves as compared with 49% from non-border villages. Shepherds from border villages also report a higher rate of victimisation (83%) than those further removed from the border (50%). Most cattle and sheep are stolen from cattle posts where they are guarded only by shepherds. Stock is also taken from village kraals and, on occasion, whole villages have been attacked and all the stock driven off. Villagers in all ten villages rate stock theft as a serious problem. Stock thieves come from within Lesotho as well as across the border in South Africa. Basotho stock thieves also carry out raids in South Africa and vice-versa. Gun use is widespread, although South African raiders seem to have greater access to arms. Much of the theft appears to be coordinated by well-organised criminal gangs but reliable information on their composition and organization is difficult to access. Criminal networks in Lesotho and South Africa also cooperate to dispose of stolen animals in the lowlands of Lesotho and as far afield as Port Elizabeth, Durban and Welkom The upsurge in stock theft is clearly related to growing poverty in the region. On both sides of the border, mine retrenchments have hit hard, sending experienced miners home and denying young men access to wage employment. Not only has this exacerbated household and community poverty, but it has provided willing foot-soldiers for stock thieves. Stock raiding produces further impoverishment, insecurity and suspicion, fuelling the escalating cycle of theft and counter-theft. Though not itself in dispute or a source of conflict per se, the Lesotho-South African border plays an essential role in the organization and impact of stock theft. There are significant differences in vulnerability and impact between villages close to the border and those further inland. The international border leads to a distinctive pattern of stock theft. In the simplest scenario, raiders from one side steal from border villages on the other and vice-versa and drive the stock back over the border. The situation becomes more problematic when Basotho stock thieves use the border as a refuge, stealing from Basotho and driving the animals across the border into South Africa to sell or exchange with South African thieves. Cross-border counter-raids to retrieve lost stock and revenge attacks are also common on both sides of the border. South African victims then target Basotho border villages for revenge raids, resulting in great tension and friction between ordinary Basotho and South Africans. The only Lesotho village reporting harmonious cross-border relations borders a white South African farming area. However, white border farmers are not aloof from the conflict. Lesotho police and villagers are adamant that some white South African farmers are implicated in cross-border theft. Stock raiding has major negative impacts on households, communities and cross-border interaction. The impacts also extend to the national economy. In Qacha’s Nek and Quthing districts, production of wool and mohair has fallen significantly in the last 5 years. Livestock holdings have dropped and the numbers of stockless households has increased. Farmers are reluctant to invest in breeding cattle as households debate the merits of getting rid of their cattle. One prominent stock-owner recently lost M200,000 of stock. Stock theft has also had a deleterious effect on agriculture, reducing the availability of oxen for ploughing fields. No one is immune from small-scale and organized raiding. Stock theft, coupled with decreasing agricultural production and increasing unemployment, deepens poverty and desperation. At the household and community level, the research found the following: Nearly 90% of respondents state their household economies have been negatively affected by stock theft. A household’s entire wealth and livelihood can be wiped out in one attack. Escalating stock theft and related violence have profound social consequences, bringing fear and insecurity to ordinary people. People are abandoning their villages and migrating to town and to South Africa to look for work. Community relations have become fraught with tension and suspicion. Nearly half of all stockowners interviewed suspect specific individuals within their own village are involved in the theft of animals – acting either as informants or actual thieves. Invariably it is the poor who are fingered and stigmatised. Communal cooperation such as livestock loaning for ploughing and mafisa (sharing of products) is in steep decline, as are cultural activities and celebrations which involve the slaughter of animals. Cross-border cooperation, activities and initiatives have collapsed and there is considerable animosity and hatred between the communities on either side of the border. Even casual visiting and shopping have all but ceased. Prevention efforts have involved some cross-border cooperation between villages to apprehend thieves and return cattle but these efforts are sporadic and make little dent on the problem. They often also lead to vicious reprisals from stock-theft syndicates. Vigilantism is on the rise in the face of widespread perceptions that the police and the courts on both sides of the border are either ineffectual or corrupt. This paper examines the inadequacies of the policing of the crisis, highlighting the low rates of arrest and prosecution. The difficulties of geography and inadequate resources which hamper effective policing are highlighted. Only in areas where the army is stationed or soldiers patrol the border has there been any marked decrease in theft. The situation is bound to deteriorate further unless there is effective national-level attention and intervention. The low-level civil war in the nearby Tsolo district of South Africa in 1997 was fuelled by a potent mix of poverty, mine retrenchments and stock theft. This conflict could well pale in comparison with the volatile situation building in the southern Lesotho border zone. Here, the same combination of factors are compounded by ethnic and national difference, and the strategic manipulation of borders by stock thieves on both sides. Both governments need to recognize that this local crisis could escalate into a major conflagration and intervene to defuse the situation, calm tensions and work towards effective policing and a political solution. Within Lesotho, the passage of a new Stock Theft Act promises heavy penalties for the shadowy figures involved in organized raiding, provided they can be caught. The institution of a national stock register also seems a step in the right direction though its likely effectiveness is debated. Both the Lesotho and South African governments should acknowledge that a crisis situation exists and that this is a regional problem. Only when national governments, working together with local stakeholders, take the problem seriously and begin cooperating can workable initiatives to halt this devastating social and economic plague be implemented

The explanatory power of the yield curve in predicting recessions in South Africa

Please refer to full text to view abstrac

The Explanatory Power Of The Yield Curve In Predicting Recessions In South Africa

The term structure of interest rates, particularly the term spreaddetermined from the difference between ten-year government bond yields andthree-month Treasury bill yields, has received increased attention as avaluable forecasting tool for the purposes of monetary policy and recessionforecasting. This is on the back of the observed positive relationship betweenterm spread and economic activity. Moreover, the term spread has been observedto invert prior to the occurrence of economic recessions both in developed anddeveloping countries.This study investigated the forecasting ability of the South African(S.A.) term spread in predicting S.A. recessions, taking into account therecent global economic recession. The motivation is due to the forecastingconsistencies illustrated by the term spread in providing statisticallyincorrect signals of recession in 2003, which did not transit into reality. Itimplied a weak relationship between the S.A. term spread and economic activity.Moreover, based on observations from the literature that term spreads andeconomic activities across countries are correlated, the term spreads of China,United States (U.S.) and Germany were investigated and compared to the S.A.term spread to determine which better forecasts S.A. recessions. The studyemployed the Dynamic Probit Model since it is considered to provide a betterpredictive edge over the Traditional Static Probit model.The findings revealed that the S.A. term spread accurately predicted allthe S.A recessions since 1980; Chinese term spread accurately predicted the1996 and 2008 S.A recessions; U.S. term spread predicted some recessions; whileGerman term spread predictions were counter-cyclical