Overtime Inference from Cross-Sectional Surveys

: To derive panel inferences at the micro level from cross-sectional surveys invites an ecological inference problem. Drawing on King's EI method we derive an application that allows us to estimate overtime change from cross-sectional opinion surveys. We validate our application in panel data where magnitudes of micro-level change are known. We subsequently apply the method to independent surveys on presidential approval. In doing so, we detect micro-level volatility that has been unavailable to previous researchers, leading them to derive imprecise conclusions. Prepared for presentation at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1997. We thank Gary King and Maria Yen Penubarti for comments on earlier drafts, Brad Palmquist and John Zaller for helpful discussions, and William Pink of NYU Politics Data Center for excellent research assistance. The data utilized in this paper were made available by the Inter--University Consortium for Politi..