Recent advances in optical fiber devices for microfluidics integration

This paper examines the recent emergence of miniaturized optical fiber based sensing and actuating devices that have been successfully integrated into fluidic microchannels that are part of microfluidic and lab-on-chip systems. Fluidic microsystems possess the advantages of reduced sample volumes, faster and more sensitive biological assays, multi-sample and parallel analysis, and are seen as the de facto bioanalytical platform of the future. This paper considers the cases where the optical fiber is not merely used as a simple light guide delivering light across a microchannel, but where the fiber itself is engineered to create a new sensor or tool for use within the environment of the fluidic microchannel

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Developmental constraints and resource environment shape early emergence and investment in spines in saplings

International audienceRunning title: Early emergence and investment in spines in saplings Background and Aims Herbivory by large mammals imposes a critical recruitment bottleneck on plants in many systems. Spines defend plants against large herbivores and how early they emerge in saplings may be one of the strongest predictors of sapling survival in herbivore-rich environments. Yet little effort has been directed at understanding the variability in spine emergence across saplings

Compositional patterns of overstorey and understorey woody communities in a forest–savanna boundary in Ghana

Background: Forest and savanna vegetation in the zone of transition (ZOT) contain distinct woody species due to fire, drought and herbivory barriers that constrain forest species from invading adjacent savannas and vice-versa. Little is known if these barriers cause divergence in species composition between the overstorey and understorey strata in these vegetation types. Aim: We investigated woody species composition across overstorey and understorey strata in the ZOT and explored the relationship between soil fertility and species composition patterns. Methods: We sampled overstorey and understorey woody species and determined soil nutrient concentrations in twenty-five 20 m × 20 m plots in a ZOT in Ghana. Results: Forest and savanna species dominated the overstorey and understorey of their respective environments. However, species composition was decoupled between the overstorey and understorey strata in both forest and savanna vegetations. Few savanna and forest species had individuals co-occurring in both overstorey and understorey such that ~65% of the dominant species was limited to only one stratum. Soil fertility had little effect on these patterns. Conclusion: These patterns indicate that, forest and savanna species face significant recruitment barriers in their respective environments, suggesting that requirements for juvenile establishment may differ from recruitments to the canopy layer.</p

Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points

Radical and quick transformations towards sustainability will be fundamental to achieving a more sustainable future. However, deliberate interventions to reconfigure systems will result in winners and losers, with the potential for greater or lesser equity and justice outcomes. Positive tipping points (PTPs) have been proposed as interventions in complex systems with the aim to (a) reduce the likelihood of negative Earth system tipping points and/or (b) increase the likelihood of achieving just social foundations. However, many narratives around PTPs often do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed alternatives could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people (i.e. do not take b into account). One such example is the move from petrol-based to electric vehicles. An energy transition that remains based on natural resource inputs from the Global South must be unpacked with an equity and justice lens to understand the true cost of this transition. There are two arguments why a critical engagement with these and other similar proposals needs to be made. First, the idea of transitioning through a substitution (e.g. of fuel) while maintaining the system structure (e.g. of private vehicles) may not necessarily be conceived as the kind of radical transformation being called for by global scientific bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Second, and probably more importantly, the question of positive for whom, positive where, and positive how must be considered. In this paper, we unpack these narratives using a critical decolonial view from the south and outline their implications for the concept of tipping points

DNA barcoding Brooklyn (New York): A first assessment of biodiversity in Marine Park by citizen scientists

<div><p>DNA barcoding is both an important research and science education tool. The technique allows for quick and accurate species identification using only minimal amounts of tissue samples taken from any organism at any developmental phase. DNA barcoding has many practical applications including furthering the study of taxonomy and monitoring biodiversity. In addition to these uses, DNA barcoding is a powerful tool to empower, engage, and educate students in the scientific method while conducting productive and creative research. The study presented here provides the first assessment of Marine Park (Brooklyn, New York, USA) biodiversity using DNA barcoding. New York City citizen scientists (high school students and their teachers) were trained to identify species using DNA barcoding during a two–week long institute. By performing NCBI GenBank BLAST searches, students taxonomically identified 187 samples (1 fungus, 70 animals and 116 plants) and also published 12 novel DNA barcodes on GenBank. Students also identified 7 ant species and demonstrated the potential of DNA barcoding for identification of this especially diverse group when coupled with traditional taxonomy using morphology. Here we outline how DNA barcoding allows citizen scientists to make preliminary taxonomic identifications and contribute to modern biodiversity research.</p></div

Overview of plants identified by this project, organized by taxonomic level.

<p>Of the 116 collected and identified plants the majority were in the Asterales (n = 32; 27.6% of total plants) and Poales (n = 28; 24.1% of total plants) orders, with the highest number of species within each order falling in the Asteraceae (n = 32; 27.6% of total plants) and Poaceae families (n = 28; 24.1%). Taxonomic groups in legends are organized from largest to smallest.</p