Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response

Background Ghana has made impressive progress against malaria, decreasing mortality and morbidity by over 50% between 2005 and 2015. These gains have been facilitated in part, due to increased financial commitment from government and donors. Total resources for malaria increased from less than USD 25 million in 2006 to over USD 100 million in 2011. However, the country still faces a high burden of disease and is at risk of declining external financing due to its strong economic growth and the consequential donor requirements for increased government contributions. The resulting financial gap will need to be met domestically. The purpose of this study was to provide economic evidence of the potential risks of withdrawing financing to shape an advocacy strategy for resource mobilization. Methods A compartmental transmission model was developed to estimate the impact of a range of malaria interventions on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030. The model projected scenarios of common interventions that allowed the attainment of elimination and those that predicted transmission if interventions were withheld. The outputs of this model were used to generate costs and economic benefits of each option. Results Elimination was predicted using the package of interventions outlined in the national strategy, particularly increased net usage and improved case management. Malaria elimination in Ghana is predicted to cost USD 961 million between 2020 and 2029. Compared to the baseline, elimination is estimated to prevent 85.5 million cases, save 4468 lives, and avert USD 2.2 billion in health system expenditures. The economic gain was estimated at USD 32 billion in reduced health system expenditure, increased household prosperity and productivity gains. Through malaria elimination, Ghana can expect to see a 32-fold return on their investment. Reducing interventions, predicted an additional 38.2 clinical cases, 2500 deaths and additional economic losses of USD 14.1 billion. Conclusions Malaria elimination provides robust epidemiological and economic benefits, however, sustained financing is need to accelerate the gains in Ghana. Although government financing has increased in the past decade, the amount is less than 25% of the total malaria financing. The evidence generated by this study can be used to develop a robust domestic strategy to overcome the financial barriers to achieving malaria elimination in Ghana

A retrospective analysis of malaria deaths in the pre- and intra- COVID 19 pandemic era, Ghana, 2016-2021.

BackgroundGlobal efforts over the years have resulted in a 27% reduction in malaria incidence and an estimated 51% reduction in malaria mortality since 2000. Meanwhile, COVID-19 pandemic disrupted provision and utilization of malaria services, leading to a surge in malaria incidence and mortality. Globally, 627000 malaria deaths were recorded in 2020, representing about 69000 more deaths compared to 2019. Also, 14 million more cases of malaria were recorded in 2020 compared to 2019. This study sought to determine whether excess malaria deaths were recorded in Ghana during the COVID-19 pandemic era.MethodsThis was a descriptive study on routine malaria mortality data in Ghana for the period 2016 to 2021. Data was retrieved from the District Health Information Management System using a data extraction guide. Excess mortality was defined as occurrence of malaria deaths more than expected value for the period 2020 and 2021. The expected number of mortalities for 2020 and 2021 were determined using 2016 to 2019 average. Excess mortality (P-score) was estimated using the formula: [(reported mortalities-expected mortalities)/expected mortalities X 100%]. Data were summarized and processed in Microsoft excel version 16.0. Malaria mortality in Ghana and its regions was described using tables and line graphs.ResultsAn average of 535 malaria deaths per year were recorded nationwide from 2016 to 2020. About 50% (1603/3207) of deaths occurred in children aged less than five years. The p-scores for the country were -53% and -58% for 2020 and 2021 respectively. No region recorded excess all-age malaria mortality in 2020, rather significant reduction. Stratified by age, Greater Accra region reported 90% higher than expected deaths among persons aged five years and above in 2020 (p-score = 90%, 95% CI: 21-159). All regions reported reduction in under-five mortality in 2020. No significant excess malaria mortalities were reported among the regions in 2021.ConclusionAlthough negative p-scores suggested a decline in malaria mortalities nationwide, some regions recorded excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic era. There is a need to integrate COVID-19 control activities with malaria control and prevention efforts to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on malaria case management and mortality

Effect of anti-malarial interventions on trends of malaria cases, hospital admissions and deaths, 2005–2015, Ghana

Abstract Background Since 2005, the Government of Ghana and its partners, in concerted efforts to control malaria, scaled up the use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Beginning in 2011, a mass campaign of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) was implemented, targeting all the population. The impact of these interventions on malaria cases, admissions and deaths was assessed using data from district hospitals. Methods Records of malaria cases and deaths and availability of ACT in 88 hospitals, as well as at district level, ITN distribution, and indoor residual spraying were reviewed. Annual proportion of the population potentially protected by ITNs was estimated with the assumption that each LLIN covered 1.8 persons for 3 years. Changes in trends of cases and deaths in 2015 were estimated by segmented log-linear regression, comparing trends in post-scale-up (2011–2015) with that of pre-scale-up (2005–2010) period. Trends of mortality in children under 5 years old from population-based household surveys were also compared with the trends observed in hospitals for the same time period. Results Among all ages, the number of outpatient malaria cases (confirmed and presumed) declined by 57% (95% confidence interval [CI], 47–66%) by first half of 2015 (during the post-scale-up) compared to the pre-scale-up (2005–2010) period. The number of microscopically confirmed cases decreased by 53% (28–69%) while microscopic testing was stable. Test positivity rate (TPR) decreased by 41% (19–57%). The change in malaria admissions was insignificant while malaria deaths fell significantly by 65% (52–75%). In children under 5 years old, total malaria outpatient cases, admissions and deaths decreased by 50% (32–63%), 46% (19–75%) and 70% (49–82%), respectively. The proportion of outpatient malaria cases, admissions and deaths of all-cause conditions in both all ages and children under five also fell significantly by >30%. Similar decreases in the main malaria indicators were observed in the three epidemiological strata (coastal, forest, savannah). All-cause admissions increased significantly in patients covered by the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) compared to the non-insured. The non-malaria cases and non-malaria deaths increased or remained unchanged during the same period. All-cause mortality for children under 5 years old in household surveys, similar to those observed in the hospitals, declined by 43% between 2008 and 2014. Conclusions The data provide compelling evidence of impact following LLIN mass campaigns targeting all ages since 2011, while maintaining other anti-malarial interventions. Malaria cases and deaths decreased by over 50 and 65%, respectively. The declines were stronger in children under five. Test positivity rate in all ages decreased by >40%. The decrease in malaria deaths was against a backdrop of increased admissions owing to free access to hospitalization through the NHIS. The study demonstrated that retrospective health facility-based data minimize reporting biases to assess effect of interventions. Malaria control in Ghana is dependent on sustained coverage of effective interventions and strengthened surveillance is vital to monitor progress of these investments